Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 36,142
I would have raised to $90 preflop (ETA: Although I'm assuming someone else has a $600 stack). This prevents setmining odds (so we can stack off postflop with TP) and we obviously feel totally comfortable getting it in preflop with dead money vs the original shortstack raiser; even taking down $50 preflop is a fine result. Raising to $30 is pretty bad because we know everyone is going to call, and now we're flying blind postflop with TP in a small SPR pot (where we'll face a stack commitment decision on the flop) and meanwhile we've given everyone good odds to mine with speculative hands.
Flop really depends on everyone's stack. If everyone has anything close to just a PSB remaining (even like $200ish) you could probably argue we are committed and should just get in the chips as best as possible (and check/shoving might be the best play as I'm guessing it is doubtful this flop checks thru).
BTW, unless you are in the most horribly raked game in the world, your preflop and flop pot sizes are way off. Next time do the math right for better responses.
As played, assuming (incorrectly) that the pot is $450 when action is on us on the turn, that means we're being asked to call $200 to win $450, so a little over 2:1. Odds of hitting a flush on one card are about 4:1, so we don't have the odds we need *if* we expect we need to hit the flush to win. However, there is a slight chance we are currently ahead with TP, plus there is a chance our A/K outs are also good.
Running it multiple times is a whole issue in itself which I'm guessing there are other threads for.
ETA: Again, math is key here: if you don't provide the proper pot sizes, all the math is off. Preflop we got 4 callers to our $30 raise, which means the pot should be 5 * $30 = $150 (minus rake, lets assume $5) = $145, which is nowhere close to the stated $120. On the flop, there's a bet and three callers (I'll assume we are one of the callers), so now pot is $145 + (4 * $30) = $265, which is again nowhere close to the stated $200. On the turn, facing a $50 bet and $200 shove, the pot is now $515 and we're being asked to call $200, so we are actually getting just over 2.5:1 odds.
Gwholehand/postisadisaster,imoG
Last edited by gobbledygeek; 06-16-2016 at 02:46 PM.