Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
Interesting. So we shouldn't have a polarized overbetting turn range here? Should we be checking when a card like this comes in vs good regs?
A little different, but I thought we could c bet flops that were solid for our opponents range with a few combos of draws and value, and size up when we do- is this not so? If it is so, then why can't we do it on the turn?
No. Hero in this case was just playing max exploitative poker. Theoretically the turn sizing is a mistake.
I haven't solved this hand but the most likely solution would be a mixed frequency between checks and betting small. When solvers mix frequencies they are by definition the same EV. If you are playing a pure Game Theory Optimal style than there will be a lot of mixed frequency actions in your game.
The purpose of mixed frequencies is to remain unexploitable on future streets. So for example if we always bet 86s here OTT - we never have a straight OTR when we check. Villain could exploit us by shoving every river when we X turn since we can now never have the nuts.
It depends on your flop cbet strategy. Hero used a small sizing here so betting with 86s is probably fine. If you use a bigger sizing than you are going to have to check more often - this hand would certainly be checked at some frequency with a bigger cbet sizing strategy.
Think about turn ranges when the flop goes bet-->call.
What turn cards does Hero NOT want to see?
He doesn't want any Qx - because Villain will have more Qx in his range.
He doesn't want any 9x - same reasons.
And 5x - to a lesser extent. Those would be the first tier of cards that Hero does not want to see (conversely these turn cards would make good turn donk leads for Villain - and this is why you see solvers donk turn at a decent frequency on board pairing cards).
2nd tier of cards you don't want to see are 8x/7x/6x. That's because these change equities in the hand. If you are Hero - you want to maintain your flop equity edge.
So Hero wants to see cards like Ax/2x/3x/4x. Cards that either
1) Give him top pair
2) Maintain his flop equity by being disconnected and not making straights/2 pair for his opponent.
Last edited by DooDooPoker; 09-04-2019 at 03:40 AM.