Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
Just scrolling through responses on the way to posting, but no need - this is exactly what I was going to post. Fold flop + please don't raise turn.
On the river you're getting 1.5:1 because of the chop (the pot is really only ~70, you are not playing for the entire thing).
Hmmm I think I bluff shove river.
I don't love calling. If you can call, shoving is probably better imo.
I think he rarely has Tx or TT. I guess T9 and TsXs are the biggest concerns. Just a handful of likely backdoor club combos. But he can also have all sorts of top pair, one pair, two pair, sets, pair + draws made into straights that don't beat the board, other counterfeited straights (i.e. 7x), whiffed draws, and quite a bit more.
Of course you chop with all of those.
Shoving lets you win the entire pot a lot imo, and stacks are perfect in terms of sizing and risk reward.
I think bluff shove is best by far. If you won't bluff shove, I think calling is next best. I think 1.5:1 for the chop is enough. But it's close.
Bluff shove >>>>> call > fold.
I don't agree with your conclusion but I agree with your thought process.
I fold here but as I mentioned in my earlier reply, if you ARE thinking about calling, you should be considering raising. That was just a general statement in that pst but I did the math and if it's right (I think it is) it's pretty clear that if you think a call is correct a shove would be better and if you think a shove isn't good that a call is worse so you really should never be calling.
I didn't do EV calcs, just looking at break even percentages. Let's consider the break even call as a baseline:
Pot = 134
Bet = 55
Eff Pot (Chop) = 67
Pot Odds = 1.22:1
V must be bluffing 1 in 2.22 times or 45% for the call to be break even.
Now Consider Bluff shoving (a case could possibly be made for bluffing smaller but let's just keep it simple since that opens up re-bluffs) Assuming V folds all his chops to our shove:
Pot=189 (Pot + V bet)
Call = 55 (our call)
New Pot = 244
Raise = 130
Odds laid = 1.9:1
B/E=35%
So for a call to be break even V has to be bluffing 45% of the time.
For a Bluff shove to be break even he has to be bluffing just 35% of the time assuming he folds those chops to the raise. In addition due to the flush coming in V would sometimes fold his non chop straight combos to a shove where we would always lose to them with a call. But let's even assume the times he folds better are canceled out by the times he fish calls for the chop. We are still substantially more profitable bluff shoving than calling.
The point I was making in my earlier post was not advocating a bluff but was trying to point out that if we are actually considering calling we should be considering bluffing. I felt like flop and river were folds but If we truly think V is bluffing 45% A shove is the more EV play. And therefore the call should actually never be correct. Either V has enough bluffs/straights he will fold to justify the bluff play or he doesn't. If he doesn't then calling is even more incorrect.
Last edited by cAmmAndo; 10-12-2015 at 03:45 PM.
