“Lol live read” exploitable fold
Join Date: Mar 2018
Posts: 304
I’m not great with live reads in general and tend to never put much emphasis on them. But this spot looked laughably obvious to me, just want some other opinions.
V is young black guy, rec player who’s loose passive. Called off 400 flop jam with K8 on K44 flop in a 3b pot.
5/5/10, 500 eff
UTG and V in HJ limp
Hero with black 99 in CO ^55
UTG folds, V calls after hesitating for a few seconds and saying “Oh why the **** not, maybe I’ll get lucky. My hand is trash.”
Flop (135): 865hhs
V says “since you tried to bluff my last hand, I’m going to try to get you this time.” Then donk leads 200. I ask him how much behind and he says “not much, about 250”.
Thoughts?
Join Date: Apr 2003
Posts: 5,171
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 130
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 884
Hmmm, against a range of 7h8x,5h6x,7h7,Ah8x,TT we're flipping at ~50% equity. Adding heart draws bumps our equity a little bit more which is good because we unblock hearts.
It only starts to get worse if we give him made straights, although we still have ~38% equity in that case.
I think it's a pretty marginal but a definite +EV spot against this V. If you want to flip for stacks (50bb essentially) and your mental game is on point, I'm shoving over his bet.
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 114
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 1,027
Jam or fold for sure
Could he have a bunch of 8X and FD's here? some combo draws? I think so
I'm leaning towards jam but it is really close , not an easy spot imo
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,257
How does this compare to his talk in other hands like the K8 hand? Was he quiet there? If he's limping AA in the HJ and then not 3 betting he has no raising range. Has he never raised a hand? I need more info.
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 6,199
Its well known and a classic in the live pokerworld: "beware the speech".
The speech is so often correlated to a strong/nutted hand that it is scary. I would say its one of the most reliable/consistent livetells in the book. So yeah, i would fold this pretty easily after he serves me this speech.
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 580
I heard ‘I played this hand so badly, I can’t even believe it. Raise all in.’ Top set KK.
So always beware the speech.
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 415
My most reliable live tell is on this opponent who will shake his head with a despondent look, giving a "tsk" (i.e., the "pokerclack") and then announces his raise. It's so reliable that he always has the nuts when he does this. In general, beware of players who put on an act to project weakness. Given the preflop speech, I would be fairly confident this guy has Aces here.
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 10,700
Bad passive player decides to start telling you all about how bad his hand really is, while shovelling money into the middle...hmmm...
Aces.
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 25
The most obvious verbal tells are when someone tries to strengthen or weaken their range. Why would someone bluffing try to make their own range weaker? It’s the classic weak means strong strong means weak. Unless he’s shown to be tricky this is true 99.99% of the time. If he has A4s here is he ever saying this? If he has A8 here is he saying it? No. Easy fold until you see him try to put level someone and weaken his range when he’s bluffing.
