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The LLSNL small blind EV project The LLSNL small blind EV project

02-06-2015 , 08:37 PM
I'm tracking absolute EV because it's less confusing that way. You know -0.5BB/hand is "neutral" and can easily compare it to that if you want.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-07-2015 , 04:53 PM
I think my data is going to break this. Through 20 SBs I am running at 1550 BB/100
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-07-2015 , 05:50 PM
better build up that sample size bro. I stacked someone in my third SB complete with 95o. Luckily, results merge into something resembling expected outcomes (+/-1-2bb/hand) as we add results.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-07-2015 , 06:04 PM
Yeah, not planning on reading anything into it until I reach at least 100 hands. Not that that's anything in live poker but it's going to be a really long time until I get anything substantial.
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02-07-2015 , 06:08 PM
Make that 500-1000.

It takes less time than you think.
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02-07-2015 , 06:11 PM
I mean, if I had started months ago I'd be done by now

Not a huge grinder so it will take me a while.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-07-2015 , 06:13 PM
Im lucky to get 25hrs/mo. It'll happen before you know it.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-07-2015 , 10:49 PM
I recorded this a while ago. It was a pain in the *** so I didn't record the hands in detail, just number of hands and profit. Profit includes all hands I raised, limped, and folded from that position (so open folding the big blind for one hand would mean -1bb profit).

bb=big blinds and bb/h=big blinds per hand.

For SB, I have 977 SB hands and profit from SB is -74.5bb=-0.08bb/h

For BB, I have 963 BB hands and total profit from BB is -130bb=-0.13bb/h


BTW all stats are from $1/$2 and $2/$5. What's my secret?? I'll run big bluffs in right spots on occasion, make sick thin value bets, etc, but I play super TAGGY. I'm the best or second best player at any given table. On average, I play roughly 20/13/4 (will 3bet a lot more at right tables, etc but I'd argue that playing more than 30vpip at any table is almost always a big leak unless up against a bunch of nits). Basically I play RIDICIULOUSLY tight from the blinds. I will occasionally 3bet bluff with ATC but that is really rare. If there are 2 or more limpers, I will limp in SB only with 22+, AT+, KJ+, QJ+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s+. These hands can hit strong nut hands (third nut flushes or higher, sets, second nut straights) OR top pair with a good kicker. If there is a raise pre and I expect to be up against 3 or more villains, I will only call raises from blinds with 22+, AJ+, KQ+. If I'm up against one limper or less, I will limp with nearly all my hands in SB expect the very worst (95o, 94o, etc) but that is really rare. Against a wide raising range, I will defend much wider ONLY if I expect to be up against 2 villains at most, but again that is rare.

I doubt playing this tight would work at $5/$10+ against good players. Is it optimal at llsnl??? I'm pretty sure it's damn close to optimal IF NOT optimal. I'm very very VERY VERY close to breakeven and everyone loses money from the blinds.....Did I mention it's extremely low variance as a nice side benefit as well???

Just for comparison, for another project, I tracked all my profit from each position for a few thousand hands, again at $1/$2 and $2/$5.

For early position (UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2)
I have 449 hands and profit of 231.5bb=0.52bb/h

For middle position (MP1, MP2, hijack)
I have 1051 hands and profit of 973.5bb=0.93bb/h

For late position (cutoff, button)
I have 883 hands and profit of 1024.5bb=1.16bb/h
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-07-2015 , 11:59 PM
how do you want the data?
in xcel? word?
tracked this night's sbs - but playing 2/5 makes it super goofy in that I'm losing .4bb and not .5bb.

it's eye-opening to see how often you (really don't) win from sb.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-08-2015 , 12:10 AM
Lol @ slim lagtarding from the sb.
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02-10-2015 , 12:07 AM
My first session did nothing to confirm the notion that liberally completing the SB against bad opponents is -EV:

24 orbits
18 raised pots
6/6 limped SBs played
2 pots won/chopped for +36 BB
4 pots lost for -4 BB

Net +32 BB in limped pots, +23 BB overall

Sample size, yadda yadda. It was mildly interesting that I found playable hands in every limped pot I was in. I can see how being out of position to good players would be a major handicap but against your typical 1/2 NL table, I just don't see being a nit in the SB as the most profitable route. I'll continue to track my results until I get closer to ~500 data points.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-16-2015 , 05:38 AM
An update that includes my above numbers:

62 small blinds tracked
44 raised pots
14/18 limped SBs played
3 pots won for +48.5 BB
11 pots lost for -11 BB

Net +37.5 BB, +15.5 BB overall

So far, so good. In theory, it's only a matter of time until I get mixed up in a pot where my lack of position will really hurt but I'm playing pretty fit/fold on the flop to try to minimize the problem.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-16-2015 , 09:08 PM
OK. Going to try and contribute to this. Obv, I wasn't very disciplined, lol three orbits, but here they are:

blinds 3/5
K9o fold to mp raise to 15 and BTN call.
9Tss BTN limps. H completes. BB checks. Flop KcQc7x. C/c/c. Turn 4c. H bets 20. BB calls. BTN folds. River Ar. H bets 50. BB folds.
93o fold to 4 limps.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-26-2015 , 04:38 PM
Updated stats:

116 small blinds tracked
77 raised pots
32/39 limped SBs played (82%)
10 pots won for +91 BB
22 pots lost for -30.5 BB

Net +60.5 BB, +22 BB including folding all raised SBs. This is inaccurate as I have played in a few of those raised pots, including winning 90+ BB last night with KK from that position. I'll continue to assume worst case scenario since I'm not tracking these for results on anything other than completed SBs.

I continue to run good in the SB. Some notes about the games I play in:

- Straddles are fairly frequent, as are preflop raises. 2/3 of my SBs are raised.
- Post flop play ranges from passive to aggressive depending on table makeup. If it's limped around, players typically lose interest in the pot and it's not too hard to steal them, especially if the flop checks around. Players will call without proper odds for flush/straight draws on the turn, though.
- My image is (usually) one of a winning player and the regs tend to respect my bets. If I donk a paired flop, I'm normally never getting called unless they have trips.

If these conditions don't apply to your games or you have players that play their position better than the villains I play against, you'll want to play much tighter in limped pots from the SB. Luckily, conditions are normally favorable for me to complete a wide range.

I should also note that my biggest loss in a limped pot is 6 BB. Sample size is still small and I expect to add some bigger losses at some point. So far so good though.

Last edited by GrinningBuddha; 02-26-2015 at 04:48 PM.
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02-26-2015 , 09:59 PM
I didn't track for a couple of sessions. Am tracking now.

Here's a good debate spot.

3 limps to btn raises to $7 in 1/2 game. He has $60. 2/3 limpers have less than $100. One has $130. All of them are bad players.

Btn plays about 80/10. Hero has tight image and KQs. What's your play. Ill follow up on mine later.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-26-2015 , 10:01 PM
That means 80%vpip, 10% raise, right?
I'm likely um, calling, but it's prolly a leak OOP for 10% of stacks.

If he's opening 10% as an average across the table and opening more from LP than EP (like 5% UTG - MP1, and 15 - 20%from CO/HJ/BTN) then I could get behind a 3bet stackoff pre line.
If he's just opening the same 10% from all positions, I guess this is a fold given stack sizes.

Unless we have some reads on what brand of bad player he is. I.e. can we reliably take him off the best hand post flop a high % of the time.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
02-27-2015 , 01:33 AM
If you call, it's likely 5 ways to the flop for $7. I'd base my action on what his range is for a $7 raise. In my games, this is rarely a big hand. I would suspect that a reraise to $25 would win the pot outright at least 50% of the time and the rest of the time we're likely racing or dominated (not too often, say 15%).

Leaning towards a raise if his raise has a wide range.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
03-09-2015 , 07:17 PM
Another update after 154 hands:

104 raised pots
39/50 limped SBs played (78%)
10 pots won for +91 BB
30 pots lost for -44.5 BB

Net +47.5 BB, -4.5 BB including folding all raised SBs.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
03-23-2015 , 08:02 PM
It seems I'm the only one tracking this these days. Here's my 200 hand update:

135 raised pots
52/65 limped SBs played (80%)
11 pots won for +97 BB
28 pots lost for -58.5 BB
13 folded for -6.5 BB

Net +32 BB in voluntarily played limped pots including the few I fold like a nit. Sample size is only 65 hands so far. Will keep updating for both of you that read this thread. :P
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
04-19-2015 , 05:53 PM
Time for the 100 sample size update (314 hands total):

210 raised pots
78/104 limped SBs played (75%)
16 pots won for +136 BB
62 pots lost for -101 BB
26 folded for -13 BB

Net +22 BB over 104 limped SBs.
Biggest winner: T9o (25 BB)
Biggest loser: 96o (-11 BB)
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04-20-2015 , 11:07 AM
Guys who have continued to post here thanks. I'm following with interest. I suppose I will start tracking my own again.
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04-20-2015 , 11:16 AM
Hmm maybe I will start tracking my results to add here, though I fold my SB probably 80% of the time so not sure how useful my small sample size will be.
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04-20-2015 , 07:17 PM
It's quite easy. I use Sheets on Google Drive to track my results and I added a tab to track SB stats.

The people that I play with play so badly that I can't turn down chances to play pots with them at 9-1 or 13-1 odds, even if I'm OOP. That said, if you are playing in tougher games with players that won't pay you off, you need to be folding a hell of a lot more than I am. Once I start playing 2-5 more regularly, I expect my VPIP to drop dramatically.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Hmm maybe I will start tracking my results to add here, though I fold my SB probably 80% of the time so not sure how useful my small sample size will be.
If nothing else, it's valuable for your own game evaluation. I'm pleasantly surprised that I've shown a profit over 100 hands for limped pots. I'm not sold that my play style is +EV long term, but by tracking these pots, it at least sheds some light on spots we don't normally think about. I plan to do some analysis as I get closer to 500 samples and see what groups of hands are most and least profitable and try to dump the biggest losers going forward.

Last edited by GrinningBuddha; 04-20-2015 at 07:24 PM.
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09-13-2015 , 06:15 PM
I've been recording a lot of hands including periodic blocks of SB hands for the COTM off the table study challenge. Figured I might as well post the SB hands here.

7 5 ♥️ ♠️ Fold
Q T ♥️ ♥️ Call
5 4 ♠️ ♠️ Fold to Raise
K 6 ♣️ ♦️ Fold
J 7 ♠️ ♣️ Fold
A 8 ♦️ ♣️ Call
A Q ♦️ ♥️ Raise
K 6 ♠️ ♠️ Fold to Raise
8 5 ♦️ ♣️ Fold
T 8 ♥️ ♦️ Fold
5 4 ♣️ ♥️ Call
8 7 ♥️ ♥️ Call
6 4 ♣️ ♦️ Fold
K 6 ♠️ ♣️ Fold
2 2 ♣️ ♦️ Fold to Raise

w/l: +16BB
Folded 66%, Completed 27%, Raised 7%.
The LLSNL small blind EV project Quote
09-13-2015 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
5 4 ♣️ ♥️ Call
Fish alert, fish alert. Proceed directly to jail do not pass Go.
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