Bet less on rivers when you know your ahead, but I'm trying to get her calls ??

Ako on button, short stack bets 31 he has 30 left, I make it 60, small blind goes all in for 200 what do I here? Been sitting here for 40 mins and guy in the seat looked solid.


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This is 1/2 not sure how to edit


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Wut? Don't fold. Press the edit button.

Eh, don't like it but, not folding here. Interested to hear what others have to say about this. Worst case scenario you're facing AA and you're boned or KK but you can still spike an A, any other PP and it's a coin flip, but you've already invested 60, short stack is most likely calling but, it'll still be a gamble for the bigger side pot.

vs KK+,AK you are 1.7:1 so to call $140 there needs to be $237 in the pot. Pot is $320 right now so yeah, never folding.


Equity Win Tie
BU 37.06% 8.19% 28.87% { AKo }
SB 62.94% 34.08% 28.87% { KK+, AKs, AKo }

Umm call.

I think this is a bit more interesting than it at first appears.

I'm assuming the short stack always calls for another $30.

The main pot is therefore $61 * 3 + $2= $183. I'm neglecting rake, BBJ, and toke.

The side pot is $139 * 2 = $278

If we were just against the jammer with 37% equity, our EV would be
63% * -$140 + 37% * $321 = $31

With the short stack, things are a bit more complicated.

For a simplified analysis, I'm going to use hand equities. This isn't completely accurate because the equity consists of wins and ties and Poker Stove doesn't break down ties between three players in terms of who tied with whom.

I'm giving shorty a 33% range. I just dialed in 32.9% in Poker Stove. I also tried it with a 25% range (any broadway, any ace, 77+); Shorty has a little less equity, but it pretty much all goes to Jammer and ours stays almost unchanged.

I gave Jammer a range of KK+, AK

Three-way equities are
Shorty: 30% (29% with a 25% range)
Jammer: 46% (47% if Shorty has a 25% range)
H: 24% (unchanged)

Equities between only us and Jammer are
Jammer: 37%
H: 63%

So, just using equities, we're 24% to win it all
V is 46% to win it all
Shorty is 30% to win the main pot. When that happens, we're 37% to win the side pot.

So 24% we win $321
30% * 37% (11.1%) we win $139

Otherwise (100% - 24% - 11.1% = 64.9%) we lose $140

24% * $321 = $77
30% * 37% * $139 = $15
64.9% we lose $140 = -$91

Our EV is $1.

So even though Shorty is in for less than half the total pot, and even though we're a 2:1 favorite over Shorty, his presence takes calling from profitable to basically breakeven.

So Jammer needs to be wider than just KK+, AK in order for calling to be profitable.