Depends how much of a thinking player villain is. If villain is a good hand reader and is thus aware that hero's range on the river is very weak, then I agree river is a snap call. I suspect this lag IS cognizant of what's going on here, so yeah I'm calling.

My take on the situation:

Preflop is kinda a standard squeezing spot in a kill pot that most lags will bite at with a decently wide range.

Flop is a standard Cbet.

Turn is a standard barrel spot for any aggressive player (but the sizing should already make us suspicious on this specific board, the lag should know your most likely hand is a pocket pair after you call that flop, so why does the lag bet so much?)

River bet sizing just doesn't make much sense since this lag should still be aware that your range is weak, so again why so much? Everything looks fishy here imo. Definitely a nuts or nothing type spot.

Basically I'm snap calling the river if this lag is a thinking player. We should expect this player's preflop range to be wider than normal due to his good position, the fact that it's a kill pot, and his past history also indicates this guy is not afraid to open it up, and given how the play postflop went down (hero check/calling) on this specific board with that overcard Q on the turn, the villain's range is actually gonna still be wide by the river.

It's funny, I feel like I'm in these situations quite often. When I'm against a player who I think is trying to play well, I'm gonna have nothing on the river in this spot so ****ing often it's laughable. This is one of those spots where I play very exploitable poker (against the right victim), and if a good player is aware of that, they can get a helluva lot of my money by just check/calling down every street until I get what's going on. Honestly that's how you destroy lags imo, by check/calling down 77s in spots like this. Lags live off people folding marginal hands like 77s in these kind of spots.

BTW the most important point of this hand is that Queen turn overcard, which every lag is gonna bite at, thus keeping their range wide to the river, and any decent hand reading lag is gonna know the hero's range is probably capped on the turn to weak pairs underneath the queen, thus making a barrel on a blank river card mandatory.

As to the sizing, I can say that I often bet 3/4 -psb in spots like this.

Why not bet 7/8 pot on the river if hero is in full call down mode w/ his pocket pair?

He open limped from late position then called a $70 raise. What does hero's hand look like?

He called the turn, why would he now fold the river when a 6 comes off? If anything this would hit hero's perceived limp/call range. Villain has to think he's getting called on the river almost always imo.

the river 6 is a dreadful card to bluff from villains point of view. Hero beats exactly air and nothing else. I hate bluff catching three streets here/ever. Your basically saying villain has 2 big cards(that aren't a Q) and I'm calling down regardless.

If hero has some sort of a read above and beyond what's been posted, then fine let villain barrel off. Aside from that though, check/calling 3 streets worth of large bets w/ an under pair, especially on this particular river, is horrid to me.

I can't see any competent villain betting without expecting to get called on this run out.

I think the discussion should be between check/raising or folding the river, not calling, unless I've missed something along the way.

I have a question,

why do we assume that when two good hand readers are in a pot together, a large bet from one when the other's range doesn't appear strong is a sure fire sign of weakness?

If the player is truly "good" and "thinking" the large river bet here should be seen as strength. He knows he is almost always getting called, and he decides to bet ~pot?

Well that of course is why this is a mind**** of a situation, because good/accurate advice totally depends on what levels we are assuming these players are on. Like for instance, take my post. I'm basically assuming the Lag is on level 2, and I'm saying let's snap call the river (a level 3 play). But if the Lag is on level 1 or 4 we are ****ed.

Do I have any good reason to believe the lag is actually on level 2. No. Not really, it's really just a hunch. But I'm going on that hunch and calling the river.

Tough situation but I don’t think you have enough info to justify making a hero call here.

Tough spot.. difficult to play small/mid pp oop vs aggressive villains like this.. as played I really sauhunds ideas of c/r on the river since you can easily have a strong hand that was trapping for s couple of streets vs an aggro villain and now you drop the hammer with a river c/r.. No one's going to think you're floating 2 streets oop on that board to set up a river c/r bluff

If you get caught well at least you can now be known as the crazy guy and get paid off more later

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People realize that I only have 970 back on the river, right? Yes, a river c/r looks pretty damn strong. But you're going to get "lol pot odds" called so often that it's not profitable to try to get him off Qx/KK/AA.

I didn't realize that. $370 more, I'd guess you are getting looked up more than not. Qx+, he might fold JJ and below.

I am correct to assume that he looks at you as a good thinking player though right?

It really does come down to what he thinks your thinking in the moment, imo. From the outside it seems like a healthy value bet from a guy who knows he should be getting called. But he may realize that you would see this and therefore be barreling off. Or it could be a case where he just decided F' it, I can't win if I don't bet. I really think it's hard to evaluate spots like these. So much depends on the game flow, dynamic, and what villain thinks of hero's game. There's really no way to get the answer to that.

This hand still comes down to a few facts.

The villain has a wide range preflop. He's a lag with the BTN in a kill pot.

The villain has a wide range on the flop (He's probably Cbetting that flop with 100% of his range.

The villain has a wide range on the turn (He's gonna barrel that Q overcard a lot)

So villain still has a wide range going to the river and THEN he bets the river--a good sized bet at that--and THIS is the crux of the hand. WHAT DOES THIS BET MEAN? And the answer to that question is going to be invariably based on our assumptions of villain's hand reading abilities (is he aware that heroes range will be very week in this spot?) and what level villain is thinking on.

Bottom line, if villain is a decent hand reader and is on level 2 then we HAVE to call because his river sizing makes no sense. It's a nuts or nothing type bet, and we already know villain has a wide range going into the river.

CR 250 OTF.

Why c/r? We fold out air and narrow his value range. C/c mode, imo.

Cuz the villain is a Euro spewtard and this ticks them off. We don't know he's going to be betting the whole way so we can check/call. Let's get the chips in now if we've decided that's what we're going to do.

Also, people don't value JJ this way without some history. It's a bad 3 barrel vs the player pool and with the info he had at the time. Anyways, most ppl aren't capable of even recognizing when they can get 3 streets with JJ on this runout. I suspect some players are getting tripped up on my/others' willingness to call three streets with 77. But vs most of the player pool, villain is going to get a ton of folds and get called by a range of 8x/AQ+ the rest of the time.

Why would he assume I'm a good thinking player? Most players who play at these stakes are mediocre hand readers with massive leaks. He has no reason to think I'm any good.

People like to say, I think he's on level x, so I'll think on level x+1. And that often leads to a selection of a pure exploitative strategy (I'm going to call with all my bluff catchers!). That's fine if you really do have a guessing edge. But for a lot of spots it's impractical to expect to have a much of a guessing edge. And if you guess wrong, you lose a bunch of EV.

A different way to pick our strategy is to evaluate who has a stronger range given how the hand played out. Look at the price he's laying himself. And call with the top y% of my river range.