here's why I really hate checking turn with the nuts like this; live players are very sensitive to aggressive players. Most games are such a limp fest that even a single preflop raise per orbit looks crazy to them. I've been labeled a maniac a dozen times just because I open raised my 3rd hand or something after sitting down. So when you display aggressive tendencies and then suddenly STOP by doing things like checking the turn it really stands out imo. Just keep them tilted with a never-ending stream of raising and betting so that you in spots like this people dont really think anything has changed.

Op, i think you are thinking about good things, just need the right push.

You are correct to be concerned about folding out a ton of villain's middle range. But here's the thing. Sometimes you gotta go for stacks. And you go for stacks with your top range. And you are targeting villains top range.

So you match up ranges like this:

You/villain

Top / Top
Middle / Middle
Bottom / Bottom

Some of these can overlap of course. But still, when you have middle set, you shouldnt be thinking of how to get value from third pair.

So when you have KK here you are targeting AK/22/A2s/AQ, AJ, AT ( with a double barrel ott)

When you have middle (AQ) you target middle (AQ-ATs, KQ, TT-JJ) (with a check ott)

When you have bottom you either give up or try to fold out bottom/middlish. So JsTs you are trying to fold out Kx, weak Ax, 99-JJ. (With a double barrel ott)

There are times in poker where your range and your actual hand smash the board. I often ask "man, what can villain even call me with here?"

Then i realize...there's only one way to find out.

Turn check isn't awful but if you check turn I feel raising this river for value is mandatory

Villain just should not have the flush or 35 or even aa that often combinatorially, plus its not a large sizing

Great post, thanks!

I like this thinking, definitely would bet the turn, and I'm ok with raising the river. The small river bet doesn't say flush to me at all, I don't even see 2p doing this, that'd be more of a check line. His passive line and small river bet scream a set mine/bottom set situation.

I can't disagree more. We need to push our range advantage to the max on the turn in order to get stacks in by the river. The ONLY thing that checking the turn does is potentially let V catch up cheaply on the river. We will so rarely increase our EV versus all but the most nitty V's by checking the turn.

Yeah I disagree with this as well. What (aside from 22 which I called out previously) could V have that will call a river raise?

I'm not saying turn check is optimal, but its a relatively dry board so checking may induce bluffs. Worse made hands may also improve to 2p or go for thin value on river. I don't have a particular good feel for villains pre-flop range based on op.

Yes, betting the turn greatly increases the chances of hero doubling up. But hero doesn't need to take the greediest line every time, deception is still part of the game.

Agreed. However, this was a 3! pot and V has shown every sign of wanting to continue after a flop that smashes our range. That to me is more than enough to push this spot to one where we should be greedy as the likelihood of playing for stacks is higher than normal.

As played shove river.

Bet flop smaller barrel turn is definitely a better line as has been said

AK.

You’d be surprised how often people find a hero call with AQ too.

I did think there was about <1% chance villain had AK given the pre-flop action at 5/10.

In the moment with river raise sizing I was specifically targeting Ax 2 pair hands knowing I'd also get calls out of sets that might have called a bit of a larger raise.

I thought villain sometimes finds a hero call with AQ as well.


Up until the river I really thought villain had a PP < QQ. So often a good 5/10 villain will call the flop cbet knowing they might be good + be able to steal pot later in hand if I have like 1010-QQ on that type of board and show weakness.

I was expecting villain to lead the river a lot of the time after the turn check but I was expecting a larger sizing and as a bluff.

What would have been interesting (and by interesting I mean horrible) is if villain had jammed over top of my river raise. I would assume that would almost always be the nut flush...however villain could put me on AK and be value shoving with a set. That would have been a really crappy spot.

I think this post deserves to be somewhere in the best of LLSNL. Feels like I just leveled up my game after reading this

It's so simple and elegant.

Unlikely any of this is going to happen when you have the Ks. Your last two epilogues have been very predictive of things Vs will do which is likely a very poor way to structure your own lines when shot taking.

+1

what would villain have called flop with to bluff this turn?