Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I will say, there are some players out there who will actually fold everything OTT that can't beat an overpair and are inelastic with that (ie will keep doing it no matter how much of a LAG you become). Against those players you might not want to bet, although even there, you probably just want to bet smaller. But there's no indication that the loose passive guy, at the very least, is that sort of player.
This is a spot where checking the flop is rationalization of pain-avoidance. Everyone hates it when some smarmy fish check-minraises them on the turn. Everyone hates betting multiple streets with an overpair and finding out they're throwing money straight into the maw of a boat. Everyone hates folding winners. But nobody goes home after a game and beats themselves up all night about how they missed value here with AA, because it's entirely hypothetical, but counterfactual missed value is still missed value. If you leave a session and nothing happened in it that made you hate life, that's probably a bad sign, because if you're in your comfort zone at all times it's because you aren't pushing hard enough.
Thank you for these posts. I really despise the mentality of the nit trap.
Like let's think about it. What kind of range does a player like this limp call and check call flop with? We can group things as so:
Beating us: 22, 99, 88, A2s
We are beating: TT, 98s, A8s, T8s, 87s, 86s, 33-77, AQo maybe. This is just stuff we'd expect him to have. He can have worse.
Let's pretend everything worse than an 8 folds the turn. Well, we STILL have 67%+ against this range. Not only is AA a strong hand here, but it reduces an already small range of 9 value combos to 7. That's important.
And really, against people who are playing too wide of a range out of position, the way to make their lives hell and force mistakes is to bet more. Not less. Why not be a limping Machine if your opponents won't exploit you?