Mohegan 2-5, game is playing a little tighter than usual. Villain in the hand is ****, 50-60 something semi regular. I've only played 5-6 hours with him including previous sessions, but my read is he seems to play reasonably for that game. Haven't seen him get out of line preflop or post flop. fairly straightforward, I haven't seen him make any plays, not that I know he isn't capable. I just don't know what his turn raising range is here. I've been playing fairly tight.

Anyway I'm UTG with 88 and raise to 20, he calls in the CO, blinds fold. Heads up to the flop. Effective stacks are ~850.


Flop comes down J 8 6 rainbow. I lead 20, Nick calls.

Turn comes 10, putting a 2 flush out. I lead 75, he minraises to 150 with about 650 behind. At this point his range should be fairly narrow, J10 66, 1010, JJ, maybe an overpair, I don't know if he'd make a play with a pair/combo draw here. Best course of action?

I raise and am never folding the turn

Feel the flop bet is a touch too small.

Tough situation with the minraise. I'm not against flatting and peeling off another a card or even raising big here.

you forgot to include suited 97's and Q9's in his range, and minraise usually screams the nuts imo. Older guys tend to be nut-peddlers. Call the turn and re-val river, pray for that paired board.

edit:no using non-famous names in the threads, i already received an infraction for doing this once

Why are you not including 9/7 in his range?

Bet more on flop...$30-$35

I am 60/40 on flatting vs raising

I am also curious to know what cards are suited on this board. Say the 8 and the 10 are suited. He may have the AJ of that suit and be raising. NOt that important but I think that it makes a difference.

call and reevaluate almost always

With his minraise, I would expect 97 to be a big part of his range. I would call, hope the board pairs, if it doesn't then check/call on the river.

Bet more on the flop, $30-$35 IMO.

With the min raise I am most worried about TT or JJ here. I guess the question you have to answer is if the villain would RR JJ from MP or not in this situation.

You need to replay the hand in your head at this point, and look for the extra information that might be available to you. How did he react to the flop bet? How did he react when the turn came out? How did he react when you lead the turn? Maybe ask him if he can beat TT or not (last resort as this gives more information than you are likely to get back)?

Without any extra information I am lean towards a fold here, I think TT and JJ just make too much sense for this player. But extra information may make this a easy call or RR.

Not calling you out or anything, but I would like to know why you think our villain has 97 as a big part of his range?

I think a fold is the least of our options. But like you pointed out, maybe there were specific tells when the flop/turn came. However, the TT/JJ range is far too narrow to simply fold. IMO, despite what I said before, a call is probably for the best.

You are correct, we can not rule out QQ-AA here. They have to make up some part of the villain's range here.

Because live opponents tend to play suited gappers such as 97 to try and hit a flop like that or flop a flush/fd. IP i play suited 97 sometimes depending how deep i am with others and if its a MW pot or not to try and flop a hidden monster.

Im not saying its a huge part of his range but you deffinitly have to include it.

best case scenario? J10. Unless he is bluffing (very unlikely) he does not have one pair here. So the real question is - how many two pairs can villian have? Because the lower the answer, the more likely it is you should fold.

I just have a VERY hard time putting a 50-60 year old nit playing 97 to a raise from an UTG player that describes themselves as "tight". That would just be so a-typical to that player type.

Change the villain's age to 20-30, make him a little loose PF, and I am there with you 100%.

I typically use a grouped range to define hand ranges, with a most likely, possible and unlikely grouping. I would put 97 in the very unlikely but ya I guess its still possible in some universe out there.

Why do you think he (villian) is a nit? He is in very late position, against a tiny (4x bb is tiny for 2/5) open raise. People who play poker in casinos LOVE hands like Q9s and 97s; perhaps with some justification.

You need to know what the villain puts you on. You said that the game is playing a little tighter than usual, so what does the villain put you on when you raise to 20, especially UTG. There is around 300 now in the pot with the villain's raise to 150, giving you 4 to 1 on your money when you just call the min raise of 75. You have about a 25% chance of pairing the board after the turn. If you haven't seen the villain playing crazy (and vice versa), then he is probably not calling you with 9 7. J 10 and A J (maybe suited) is likely as is JJ since he may just have called you thinking that you are raising to 20 UTG with maybe qq or AK. The effective stacks are big enough to call with lots of stuff. He is not minraising you there with a flush draw. Perhaps, you would just limp UTG and RR after a raise, not sure, with qq or AK. With a minraise from this villain, he is telling you that he probably has at least two pair, maybe a set of jacks or sixes. Your flop bet was way too small - you need to make him pay for his draws. I would just call the 75 here and see if you pair the board. If you pair the board on the river, and the villain goes all in, you should call since set over set, or boat over boat is very rare. If a rag card comes down on the river, and a large bet (pot size or greater) is made, it's fold time.

How many 50-60 year olds do know that are described as above that are not nits?

BTW the hero says the game is playing tight, 4xBB maybe very standard in this dynamic.

I can see 97 and Q9 being in his range, but I figure he would be worried enough to raise to an amount that "prices out" your FH/quads/higher straight draw because he should be including JJ,TT,88,66,AKs,KQ,AQs in your range based on action.

I don't know the player, but on paper, this feels a little like it's either a higher set - "knowing" you probably don't have Q9 or 97 or a hand like JT/overpair looking to extract value but leaving room to get away should you come over the top. Note, the minraise with such a hand also acts as a sort of free showdown raise, setting the final price he is willing to put in for the turn and river.

I would call and make a big decision on the river if it comes to that.

Yeah this. If this is the player I'm thinking of, JT is just about near the bottom of his range. I'm not folding yet though. I think a straight is the biggest part of his range, and I peel the river, and go from there.

97s is 100% in villain's range.

I have trouble believing that this guy is so preflop tight that 9/7 suited isn't squarely in his range, especially with 850 effective stacks and good perceived implied odds given the strength represented by OP's UTG raise. I would even add in J/8 suited and 8/10 suited, albeit heavily discounted since J/8 is a 2-gapper and there's only one 8 in the deck.

You're repping an overpair or better here with the UTG raise and large(ish) turn bet so I think he's very rarely doing this with A/J, even with the flush draw. And with the same logic, other pair plus flush draw combos are going to rarely show up. Given villain's description, his range is very narrow: 6/6, 10/10, J/J, 9/7, J/10, J/8 and 10/8 with J/8 and 10/8 discounted for the reasons above and J/J somewhat discounted b/c he 3-bets it at least sometimes preflop (Maybe he only 3-bets it 15% of the time or so b/c of the UTG raise, so perhaps not discounted all that much). Q/9 is also a possibility given the small flop bet but guys like this may dump gut shots to half pot bets, even w/ an overcard and he probably dumps it preflop more than 9/7 suited.

I don't think you can fold to this min-raise given the pot odds and small to moderate possibility that you are way ahead, but I think a raise would be pretty bad since you're more likely to be behind here, he's continuing w/ everything that beats you and dumping j/10, j/8 and 8/10 with some frequency. The only hand that you're getting solid value from almost all the time is 6/6 and he may not be stacking off with this either.

On totally blank rivers, I'm apt to check call since he'll often bet something with his two pair combos and will certainly bet with 6/6. I would call almost any reasonable bet there, but might consider folding if the bet were higher than 300 since this sizing is very indicative of a straight or higher set (from this type of player). Bet/folding isn't as good an option IMO since you'll be making a massive error the times that he does raise you with J/10 and 6/6 and he just may make a hero fold with two pair. And bet/calling is way too spewy given how often he has a higher set or straight.

On texture-changing, non board-pairing rivers (e.g. put an overcard to the J out there, complete the flush or put a 1-gap straight on the board), I'm more apt to check fold the river since he's less likely to bet two pair. I'm still calling small bets with overcards and completed flushes but with a 1-gap straight I'm folding to pretty much anything since a guy like this would never go for value that thin and we know he's never turning a made hand into a bluff in that spot.

If the board pairs (other than 8 obviously), I think bet (150 or so)/folding is superior to check calling since the latter allows him an easy show down for the straight, which is a huge part of his range. And in my experience, players like this are very often checking behind with the straight when the board pairs. The only problem with folding to a river raise is that he might be doing this with 6/6. If the price is absurdly good, I might call. But I think he's flatting 6/6 enough on the river that the price would have to be absurd (basically a min raise only). And if the river is a 6, then you truly are beating nothing since he's not raising j/10 for value on that river.

Thanks for the terrific replies here, some really good thoughts/analysis. I'll post more/results tomorrow if I have time. (I just lost my typed response at a public computer)

yes, please post results (maybe just river action first if you called). this is a pretty tough "oh s***" spot and of course being results-oriented I would wonder if there was any reason we should exercise pot control to prevent that tricky decision point.

I call here and check call any reasonable rvr bet... but I might be really bad

Most of you confirmed my suspicion that I misplayed this one badly. Thanks again for the insights... For some reason I gave more weight to the possibility of villain making a play at me, or raising a combo type hand which is why I described/named him in hope of someone who's played more with him could give me feedback on that idea. The minraise should have screamed something different to me though. In retrospect I should have bet a little more on the flop, (at the time I was thinking of getting a little value. Again, game and villain had been playing fairly snug with most pots being taken with a flop bet). And villains snugness threw me off on his preflop range as well. I just hadn't seen him cold call preflop, so I really discounted the straights. SO I reraised, he shoved, I called, he of course turns over the nuts, Q9.