Villain in the hand is a bit loose pre. She is typically aggressive and somewhat tricky. I do not have much experience playing with this villain.
Hero's image is that of a competent reg. Typically TAG, but villain has seen me turn over some less-than-premium hands in the past as both opener and as three-bettor.
The game is seven-handed.
Loose/passive player ($1,000) limps UTG
I ($1,000) raise to $25 w/ K
J
UTG+1
Villain ($600) calls in SB
BB folds
UTG calls
Flop ($80) T
4
2
Checks around
Turn ($80) Q
SB checks
UTG checks
I bet $50
SB raises to $130
UTG folds
I call
River ($340) 8
SB checks
I...?
I bet turn because I feel like this is a good card for my range and because I pick up some equity with my OESD. I feel like I can get folds from some ace-high hands, 33, and 55-99.
I believe Villain's range for check-raising turn is polarized. I don't think she does this with QX hands. I expect her to lead those most often. I believe her range is something like 22, 44, TT, QT, and various combos of club, heart, and straight draws. I believe the draws outnumber the value portion. I also think all combos of the value hands listed can't be counted because she would lead turn some percentage of the time. I think it is possible villain could make a small check-raise with a hand like 2X or 4X but I don't think it is very likely.
My plan on the turn was to value-bet A, K, & 9 rivers and bluff club rivers. I would bluff here with KJ only when I have one club in my hand for two reasons: to reduce the combos of bluffs I have and for the slightly decreased likelihood of my opponent having a flush due to me having a blocker.
Therefore my bluff range consists of six combos of K
Jx & KxJ
. I think these are the only hands I get to the river with in this spot that are so weak they must bluff. My value range in this spot is also narrow. I have the following club combos: AK, AJ, A9, A5, A4, A3, KJ, K9, J9, & 67. I can also have two more combos of J9s that river a straight. I do not include J
9
because I'd routinely bet flop here.
So what do you do here?
ETA: Earlier in the session I checked back AQ vs villain on river on an A94 4 J board. I think she may assume my river betting range is polarized for this reason. I do not think she would think I would be value-betting AQ in the current hand.
Last edited by DGMB; 09-07-2015 at 02:30 AM.