Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-22-2017, 02:00 PM   #1
pologuy64
adept
 
pologuy64's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Hopefully Back in Cincy Soon!
Posts: 1,123
Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

2/5 NL @ Jack in Cincinnati. Game is decent, had a live one at the table and the action has been going because of it...

Main Villian is UTG+1: I have played with him many of times. Avg. players knows how to play good but can also do bad things, like a bluff in spots that he should not. Get it in light, if he think its the right play, etc etc. Caught him running a 3 barrel bluff last session but seems to be playing decent today.

UTG limps for 5
UTG+1(420) limps for 5
Comes to me in MP (I cover the table) and I raise to $25 with 1010
I get 4 callers utg being one of them, so 135 in the pot already.
gets back to UTG+1 and he ships $420 total

I call, +EV? Thoughts?
pologuy64 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 05:56 PM   #2
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,031
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

Quote:
Originally Posted by pologuy64 View Post
2/5 NL @ Jack in Cincinnati. Game is decent, had a live one at the table and the action has been going because of it...

Main Villian is UTG+1: I have played with him many of times. Avg. players knows how to play good but can also do bad things, like a bluff in spots that he should not. Get it in light, if he think its the right play, etc etc. Caught him running a 3 barrel bluff last session but seems to be playing decent today.

UTG limps for 5
UTG+1(420) limps for 5
Comes to me in MP (I cover the table) and I raise to $25 with 1010
I get 4 callers utg being one of them, so 135 in the pot already.
gets back to UTG+1 and he ships $420 total

I call, +EV? Thoughts?
Here's the way I'd look at it... He's shipping 420 to win 135, so he needs this to be successful 75% of the time to profit with ATC. Given that most likely nobody else can call, it means that if you fold much more than 25% of the time, he can profit with ATC. So call about 25% of the time.

But I wouldn't worry about calling much more than the top 25%... Anyway, it sort of depends on how much of your range you're opening. Like if you're only open raising like the top 8% of your range, and overlimping below that, then I'd just say let it go. But if you're being a bit looser with your opens (you don't want to be too loose after UTG limp bc of limp RR), then TT is probably going to be around the cusp of what you should be calling with in a spot like this.

This is ignoring all of the obvious stuff -- i.e, what does villain have? Some villains we know *always* have a very strong hand here, and we fold. Other villains we know try to pull off bluffs way too often, and we call. With this villain, I'd be more content just trying to call him often enough...
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 06:04 PM   #3
matzah_ball
old hand
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,927
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

The GTO analysis above is wrong. We don't have to defend that wide since there are other players in the hand.

This is completely reads based. Some people always have AA here, some people have lots of random crap going for the squeeze. I lean toward fold with TT but it all depends how you range your villain.
matzah_ball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 06:16 PM   #4
venice10
Referee
 
venice10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Nowhere special
Posts: 21,960
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

Since you've played with this guy a lot (I don't think the 2/5 pool is all that wide at JACKS), you should know if he is likes to l/rr with AA. If he doesn't, he's got a medium pair. Even if he does, most people don't like to start the cavalcade of limps with AA unless he's pretty confident someone at the table was raising the limpers. That again is something you can answer.

If he has a medium pair, you're behind JJ and ahead of 99 and 88. If you don't mind the variance, I'd call unless the answers you give above says something different. If you do, fold.
venice10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 07:59 PM   #5
Homey D. Clown
journeyman
 
Homey D. Clown's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 359
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

Just fold, next hand. I would only call if I had seen him do this before with mediocre hands, or just too many times... Otherwise dont fret it and just fold imo.
Homey D. Clown is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 08:21 PM   #6
javi
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 6,414
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

of the countless times i've seen EP limp-shoves like this I can only remember maybe twice in my life it was something stupid like 88. I even remember the opponent turning it over when everyone folded and said "i had to protect my hand". So essentially it wasnt a bluff in his eyes, just someone who doesnt understand the value of PP's and thinks he cant ever lay it down postflop so he might as well just take it down preflop. If he gets called by AA he just chalks it up to bad luck.

But like every other time it's always AA/KK seriously. Typically from UTG and not UTG+1 but i've still seen EP limpshoves like this before.
javi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2017, 10:00 PM   #7
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,031
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball View Post
The GTO analysis above is wrong. We don't have to defend that wide since there are other players in the hand.

This is completely reads based. Some people always have AA here, some people have lots of random crap going for the squeeze. I lean toward fold with TT but it all depends how you range your villain.
Yes, other people in this hand... But most likely, OP has the only hand strong enough to call here. It's obviously not exact, but deciding to call about 25% of your range should work out pretty well in practice, I think. That is, unless OP is raising particularly wide over EP limps.
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2017, 01:12 AM   #8
gangip
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,902
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

gto lol
gangip is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2017, 02:22 PM   #9
pocketzeroes
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 2,031
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

Quote:
Originally Posted by gangip View Post
gto lol
Nothing lol about it - it's a good way to analyze situations. Obviously you should take into account reads and actual ranges, but if you start off your analysis by using the most fundamental ideas of game theory for poker, and then work from there (I.e., think about villain's ranges), you'll be much better at making good decisions in practice.
pocketzeroes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2017, 03:20 PM   #10
Javanewt
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: a farm in the country
Posts: 6,474
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

You are flipping or massively ahead. I think this type of player has AT+ or a pp less than TT here. I call, too. (I am considering this type of player at Jack because I play there when I'm in the area.)
Javanewt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2017, 12:50 PM   #11
gangip
veteran
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,902
Re: Live 2/5 NL - Is this Pre-Flop play +EV, RIGHT???

Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
Nothing lol about it - it's a good way to analyze situations.
I strongly disagree that it's a good way to analyze situations (at least live 2/5 NL). I agree with the rest of your post in the sense that it's important to think about villain's ranges, but GTO is a bad starting point in my opinion.
gangip is online now   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:18 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online