2/5 NL @ Jack in Cincinnati. Game is decent, had a live one at the table and the action has been going because of it...

Main Villian is UTG+1: I have played with him many of times. Avg. players knows how to play good but can also do bad things, like a bluff in spots that he should not. Get it in light, if he think its the right play, etc etc. Caught him running a 3 barrel bluff last session but seems to be playing decent today.

UTG limps for 5
UTG+1(420) limps for 5
Comes to me in MP (I cover the table) and I raise to $25 with 1010
I get 4 callers utg being one of them, so 135 in the pot already.
gets back to UTG+1 and he ships $420 total

I call, +EV? Thoughts?

Here's the way I'd look at it... He's shipping 420 to win 135, so he needs this to be successful 75% of the time to profit with ATC. Given that most likely nobody else can call, it means that if you fold much more than 25% of the time, he can profit with ATC. So call about 25% of the time.

But I wouldn't worry about calling much more than the top 25%... Anyway, it sort of depends on how much of your range you're opening. Like if you're only open raising like the top 8% of your range, and overlimping below that, then I'd just say let it go. But if you're being a bit looser with your opens (you don't want to be too loose after UTG limp bc of limp RR), then TT is probably going to be around the cusp of what you should be calling with in a spot like this.

This is ignoring all of the obvious stuff -- i.e, what does villain have? Some villains we know *always* have a very strong hand here, and we fold. Other villains we know try to pull off bluffs way too often, and we call. With this villain, I'd be more content just trying to call him often enough...

The GTO analysis above is wrong. We don't have to defend that wide since there are other players in the hand.

This is completely reads based. Some people always have AA here, some people have lots of random crap going for the squeeze. I lean toward fold with TT but it all depends how you range your villain.

Since you've played with this guy a lot (I don't think the 2/5 pool is all that wide at JACKS), you should know if he is likes to l/rr with AA. If he doesn't, he's got a medium pair. Even if he does, most people don't like to start the cavalcade of limps with AA unless he's pretty confident someone at the table was raising the limpers. That again is something you can answer.

If he has a medium pair, you're behind JJ and ahead of 99 and 88. If you don't mind the variance, I'd call unless the answers you give above says something different. If you do, fold.

Just fold, next hand. I would only call if I had seen him do this before with mediocre hands, or just too many times... Otherwise dont fret it and just fold imo.

of the countless times i've seen EP limp-shoves like this I can only remember maybe twice in my life it was something stupid like 88. I even remember the opponent turning it over when everyone folded and said "i had to protect my hand". So essentially it wasnt a bluff in his eyes, just someone who doesnt understand the value of PP's and thinks he cant ever lay it down postflop so he might as well just take it down preflop. If he gets called by AA he just chalks it up to bad luck.

But like every other time it's always AA/KK seriously. Typically from UTG and not UTG+1 but i've still seen EP limpshoves like this before.

Yes, other people in this hand... But most likely, OP has the only hand strong enough to call here. It's obviously not exact, but deciding to call about 25% of your range should work out pretty well in practice, I think. That is, unless OP is raising particularly wide over EP limps.

gto lol

Nothing lol about it - it's a good way to analyze situations. Obviously you should take into account reads and actual ranges, but if you start off your analysis by using the most fundamental ideas of game theory for poker, and then work from there (I.e., think about villain's ranges), you'll be much better at making good decisions in practice.

You are flipping or massively ahead. I think this type of player has AT+ or a pp less than TT here. I call, too. (I am considering this type of player at Jack because I play there when I'm in the area.)

I strongly disagree that it's a good way to analyze situations (at least live 2/5 NL). I agree with the rest of your post in the sense that it's important to think about villain's ranges, but GTO is a bad starting point in my opinion.