Quote:
Originally Posted by Blargle
I seem to think the opposite in LSNL games - I assume every player is a fish that will over value single-pair type hands and until they prove otherwise. Curious what others think of this...
It's not necessarily a bad assumption. However, it's a mistake of major proportions to make that assumption, then stick with it. That's something I see all the time: solid player playing plain vanilla poker against a table full of fish. I join that table, and the plain vanilla player doesn't realize that Kyuubimon is thinking along the same lines they are. They assume I'm a fish making fishy plays and they don't see it coming, and realize what hit them only after I've made a big dent in their stacks or felted them.
Quote:
You're facing a big river raise in a limped pot. That's almost never going to be a single pair. I'm too lazy to stove it but I'm almost positive that even if you put in a decent % chance of a spaz bluff from a busted draw, you still don't have enough equity to profitably call.
Five limpers in an unraised pot: the field wasn't thinned out at all; hands weren't defined in the slightest. Look at Hero's line here: $10 on a flop that's as dry as the Mojave in July, $35 on the turn, $70 on the river. That's a line that says he's milking this pot for all it's worth, and he
still gets shoved over. That's no bluff, and Hero's bottom two can't be any good here. I would give the vill credit for a flopped set and move on.
I also think the vill made a mistake here. If I were in that pot with (9,9) or (6,6) I'd've made it $15 on top on the flop to represent TPGK, then the cat gets out of the bag on either the turn or river, depending on where I believe I have the best chance of getting a stack-off.