This is my second hand at the table. I just table changed because it looked like a weak table. Villain is a black man in his 40s. He has an accent but I can not tell where it's from. His eyes are red and glazed over. He's not acting drunk but he does have a beer in front of him which he is not drinking from very often.
First hand:
Hero in SB with $310 is dealt AQo.
Villain has around $600-700
Two people limp, Villain in HJ limps, CO and Button limp. I raise to $15. I would usually make it a little more here but since I am new to the table, I'm not sure how they react to bet sizings yet. One fold, one call. Villain makes it $105. CO and Button fold.
Hero?
Second hand (4 hands later):
Same Villain straddles for $4. One limp. Hero is dealt AhKs in MP and raises to $20. Folds to Villain who calls. Other limper folds.
Flop KJTr ($45)
I bet $25. Villain instantly raises to $82. Hero?
At this point it's become clear that this guy pushes his stack around to take down pots. I know he's going to be a high variance player to play against. Do I have enough of an edge to play back at a maniac or should I wait for a better spot?
Hand 1: Stack size means your choices are fold and shove. Without any read on his range yet I fold.
Hand 2: This depends on villain. Without a read on his bluffing range, how often he bets draws and how often he continues on turn, I probably fold on such a connected board. If you call your hoping for the Q on the turn and if you do catch it is either a chop or he is going to give up most of the time. Against a real maniac I might continue with the plan of calling down but only against the most relentless bluffers.
First, I bet more on that flop for value. The villains raise has to be bigger and that does narrow his range.
It pretty much comes down to what his range is. If there are a lot of bluffs in his range, it's probably a call. If he's calling with QJ/KQ and is pushing his draws, it's probably a call. The only issue is if he has like KJ/JT. It's a pretty gross spot. Pokerstove your hand vs TT, JJ, JT+, QT+, KT+, AK and see where you are at. Obviously you can't do that at the table so it probably doesn't help you.
I probably would fold here for the last time and get a read on villain before I am ready to go to war. The other slightly sicker option is to 3bet to like 180ish and then soul read if he shoves. It's cheaper than calling the raise AND a bet on the turn by probably ~100 bucks and it folds out his bluffs.
First Hand:
No reads, you have nothing invested in the pot yet. I think this is a fold. It’s probably slightly –EV, but you substantially reduce your variance and there are definitely better spots to put your money in profitably.
Second Hand:
I think if you run through his range, he can have KQ,JQ,Q10, J10,K10,KJ or he’s has Qx and is just crazy. But I think for the most part he has a pair+ draw to make this type of play. Based on his most likely hand ranges you have about 28% equity vs. KJ, J10, K10 and you have a little under 60% equity against KQ, QJ, Q10. So, I mean you are either fairly behind or slightly ahead, and w/ the way he seems to be playing, you will probably have better spots to bust him, so I would probably fold.
In hand 1 I can't see how he is limping a hand in the CO with a bunch of other limpers that has AQ dominated. Easy shove IMO.
Considering you really have no other information on V than the other hand (and we don't know what the results are if there is any other info ) I'm inclined to believe this guy is using his stack to test you. He can't have you drawing dead here and he seems like a guy who's very capable of making spew raises for no reason with Kx. Three bet him here and trust your judgement if he clicks it back. Guy sounds like a degen with no real thought process to his actions. The limp CO 3bet is just really really fishy..
For the first hand, this guy took a really weird line IMO. If he has a hand like TT+, AJ+, KQ, why would he not raise when he already has two limpers and relative position. If this was from EP, I would have insta-mucked because he probably was trying to be sneaky with KK+ but it was just so weird from the HJ. This seemed to be 55-99, KK+, or a complete bluff to me. I felt he was intending to set mine and when money started going in he overvalued his hand and wanted to take it down right there. The only other thing I think it could be is he had a monster and was going for a limp/reraise but he doesn't realize how often it will check through after the HJ; or he's drunk and is just making an absurd bluff trying to steal $35. I ended up folding because he was willing to play for stacks and I wasn't willing to gamble 150 BB on what I thought was a coin flip with a mid-PP and no reads. Is my thought process correct on this? Is there anything else I may be missing?
For hand two, I still didn't know what his range is to be making a move like this. His bet size seemed a lot like he was just trying to take it down on a scary board. A 3.5x raise is large for a made hand that wants to get maximum value. I was thinking a pair+sd seemed very likely here rather than two pair. If he flopped the straight and checked the flop, a normal 1/2 player OOP would call the flop bet looking to C/R the turn so I didn't believe he had a straight. I make it $182 to which he calls. As soon as he calls, I plan to get it in (~$120). Turn is a blank, I bet $100 (Colorado's max bet). He gets chips to put in and I say, "It's going in if you want to raise" to which he says, "No, I just call." River is a Q for the nut straight. I get my last $20 in and he calls. I show the nuts and he mucks.
Is the 3 bet line on the flop too much of a spew? I need to Pokerstove this when I have a chance. I know that getting 150BB in with TPTK is not good but the way he played in the 6 hands I was at the table seemed like he just pushed his stack around to win pots. I'm also kicking myself for not asking the dealer to show me his cards. I don't ever do that but I think this would have been a good hand to make him show his cards.
Thoughts? Is my thought process on the second hand incorrect?
Hand 1 obviously he took a weird line and is FOS a lot here. However, there is a good chance your coin flipping vs a mid pair if he has some sort of sensible range at all and without any read on what his range is I like the fold here also.
Hand 2 is the same problem. Obviously he can be just trying to take down a scary board but he could have a straight/two pair/set. A good LAG will raise here with a straight because they are often bluffing here and they know it looks bluffy. However, there are more bad LAGs and maniacs then good LAGs, and figuring out how often a players is bluffing in this sort of situations is key to playing these players. I prefer to watch other players play against the LAGs and maniacs if possible, rather then risk my own money while trying to guesswork their range, but that isn't always possible.
