Hi Everyone,
Trying to work out if my move last night was +ev or -ev.

Situation - live 1/2 - table buy-in limit is $100. Rake is 10% (capped at $20).

There is a side-game where flopping a royal-flush will score you a progressive jackpot (which grows by 20cents per cash hand played throughout the casino), which does lead to insanity pre-flop. At this low-stake, this establishment is famous for having family pots where everyone limps in.

It's just after 1am Sunday morning (Saturday night).

Villain in seat 3- appears to be grinding (which is odd given the rake, but I'm there too trying to build experience and a bankroll). His stack is a little over $300. He is drinking beer (half-way through second pint I've seen). He is playing TAG. "Normal" stack at the table is about $80-120.

I am in the cut-off with QQ. My stack is little about $352. I have played about an hour and a lot of hands - probably following a LAG style - stolen a couple of pots with strong bets here and there.

UTG limps, UTG +1 limps. Villain raises to $13 (pot now $20). Folds to me in cut-off, I raise to $50. Everyone else folds to villain who shoves.


My thinking:
Hand ranges - AA, KK, AK, QQ. Maybe JJ if getting a little bit frisky. Villain has laid down a few hands to me and was frustrated on those occasions. It is possible that he bullying me.

The maths - Giving the villain AA, AKs, KK, and QQ my I'm an underdog - 28.5% with 71.5% to him. Including JJ makes me 42.5% to his 57.5%

The questions:
Is my hand-range reasonable? Or am I assuming that the player is too tight?
Is a 3-bet the right move there?
Once the shove comes should one call, or fold and wait for a better spot?


Alternative scenario:
What if instead a three-bet, I flat call the villain. Given the table dynamics, I'm reasonably sure that will lead to at least one more caller. Given the establishment, that caller will likely have KQo+. Is it every appropriate to turn premiums into a set-mining situation?

I throw it in the muck. If he's making this play with AJ or TT tip your hat to him. At best you're a coin flip here

Sitting in this game is not a +ev move.

It's a rake monster, but it's the only casino within 8 hours drive.

Fold. Theres not a lot of 3 netting in these live NL low stakes. you're crushed or flipping(AK) and not often someone shoves with TT/JJ $300+ deep

At this stake do my opponents have it what it takes to fold JJ to my three-bet, though?



And, is the stack size is the key determinant here?

Does the math goes like this:

After my three-bet, the pot is $70. Villain shoves say $300. Pot is now $370. Call will cost $300, so pot odds are around 1:1.2. My odds against villain's hand range (if we include QQ) is 1:3.5. So fold. Fold hard.


Say I'm holding table average ~$120 and am the effective stack.

Two limpers, Villain bets $13, I would likely 3-bet around $40. Everyone else folds.

Pot is now $62. Villain shoves. Thanks to my stack, effective pot-size - $142

Call will cost $80 - pot odds are 1:3.025 ($242/$80)

Because 33% is larger than my chance of beating the hand-range in question (28.5%), it's still a fold.

Or have I got this wrong?

Last scenario, if I had a $50 stack, would I'd be better off shoving rather than 3-betting?

$50 stack, you just shove. $120 you do not fold. When players are playing shorter, their ranges can expand. People risk $120 with a huge variety of hands. But $300 shoves are AA and KK like 95% of the time. Occasionally AK for the right types of players.

JJ generally calls your 3 bet or folds.

Assuming V just has $300 to make math simple. With rake, you're calling 250 to win 337, so need to be 42.6% equity (250/587). If V is shoving with QQ+ and all combos of AK, you only have 40.3% equity and not getting the right odds. That's probably too optimistic anyway, because V may not shove with AK all the time. Hard to imagine a grinder is 4-bet shoving with JJ here. I fold.

I think if you folded to the 4-bet hand is played fine. QQ is too strong a hand to set-mine, but not a good enough hand to slow play.

In the cutoff, 3 betting here is the correct move. Considering your opponent in this situation was playing TAG, I think your only costing yourself money by moving from $13 to $50. You can get the same information by reraising to $35. Given the information, if he reraises you should fold. If he flat calls, you can proceed cautiously. Also, that game is raping you on the rake. I've never seen a 20 cap in my life. Just my thoughts!

Fold to 4bet.


-EV game for just about anyone. That's horrendous.

Fold.

There is no way that this game is beatable.

Get really friendly with everyone at the table and run this game at your house for half that rake. You will make 50k a year on 1 table 1 day a week. GL

Can you not play online? This is probably one of the worst games I have ever heard of.

Fold. Get up. Don't go back.

WP up to this point, nice ranging. Now fold

I think your 3 bet looks like it doesn't want to be called its a bit big. I'd go for around 40 here. Otherwise I'll just echo what everyone else says.

I play in a game with a similar rake structure, but fortunately the buy in is uncapped. Whenever I find myself at a table and everyone has around $300, I'm almost always down even if I've had decent cards. I'd look for some home games if I were you.

interesting spot.BUT I think you pointed out the math, given his range you have about a 29%win chance vs his range. Old me would call, take a serious gamble where you already feel like your beat or flipping at best. New me folds. Given how much you have in already, and it is cash game, I still feel like you should find the fold here.

Holy Rake Batman!!!! When I see the dealer take the first rake out of the pot, not only do I get up, but I tell everyone at the table that this casino is ripping them off. Here is the math that you need to know.

Avg. hands per hour in NLH = around 30
Avg pot/rake= lets be modest and say $50/5

This is the best part!!!!

30 hands per hour x $5 rake= $150 per hour down the hole off the table

So imagine that there is another player at the table, who never leaves, and you can NEVER beat him/her and he/she wins $150 per hour.
It gets better..... The max buy in for this game as you stated is $100. So that's a $1000.
In 6 hours x $150 = $900 disappears

Effing Scary

Should be illegal to run games like this imo. Move or give up live poker.

Sorry to pile on the negativity train but unless you have a home game option within the stated 8 hours that this casino is supposedly the best option just quit. 10 years ago this game is beatable but nowadays it is not.

How does a jack pot for flopping a royal lead to preflop insanity? There arent that many hands that can flop a royal and the odds of it are astronomical anyway.

-ev. Unbeatable.

Standard fold IMO.

So you're saying he should....ragequit?

^^^ it is certainly what I would do.