I'm running good and playing well and easily have the whole table covered. Button and BB are both sitting on about $175 at the start of the hand. I've played with the button a lot and he definitely plays too many hands pre-flop but he usually isn't calling big bets without a hand. I have not played with the big blind but so far he seems very fit or fold/loose passive. More or less your standard live villain.

I have 7h8h UTG +2 and open for 6 and I get like 5 callers. Flop comes 8d8sQd. I bet out for about 17, the button calls, and the big blind makes it 67 and has about 100 behind. I wasn't too worried about the button, thinking he was very likely to be on a flush draw or possibly a queen. I really didn't think the big blind would make this move with a flush draw, except possibly a straight flush draw.

At the table, I estimated my equity to be about 20% vs his range, but I was way off and when I poker stoved it, I was in the 30-37% area depending on exactly what you want to put in there. Given that there are a lot of cards in the deck that will make this a chop with a lot of hands, am I supposed to get it in here? Even though I think I know how he plays, I really don't have enough history with him to know he can't be making a semi-bluff here or even betting a big queen for value.

I probably would have jammed the flop, this is a great flop for our hand and he isn't even 100bb deep, let alone the pot is already a good size. No idea why you only bet $17 OTF, something like $25 would be perfect, as your hand represents Q. Villain has 8x most the time, AQ sometimes, and a chop will occur enough of the time. I am not folding, though folding cant be too bad either given the action. Occasionally he has 68 and 58, since his range is super wide to call pre because "omgz so many callers"

What's your reasoning for the $6 raise OOP with a hand that can so easily be coolered? I would fold pre in EP 100%, and raise this in LP or overlimp with a herd of limpers.

yeh, probably jam flop or flat with the intention of jamming turn when pot commitment ties your opponent to the hand (though he's already basically saying "I'm commited!" on the flop with his bet). Your EP opening range contains more high card strength than it does eights, which is going to confuse your opponent when he tries to put you on a hand, and he's probably not semi-bluffing with a SFdraw, as the board is paired, and all straight draws are inside. Your opponent's comment post-hand I wouldn't take to mean too much. I am constantly at a loss at these stakes when I see what some players consider to be the nuts. One of the hardest things to pin down is what your opponent thinks is strong in a given situation versus what is actually strong. People can actually run unintentional bluffs and get better hands to fold out in spots like this, just by acting goofy and thinking aces up is "OMG TEH HOLY GRAIL". As played, we could be facing a weaker eight from the blinds, and he could be putting us on some kind of TPGK/TK kind of hand, depending on how he percieves our leading range. Reraise or flat with the intention of stacking off on the turn, as played. 3 eights rates to be pretty strong here / chop outs if we're moderately outkicked etc.

I think Hero should push. Let's look at Hero's play from the Villains seat:

- Hero opens for $6 in early possition. This is likely to be less than a normal opening raise, but maybe not. We don't know Hero's table image but it would be a reasonable guess than a normal sized early possition raise from Hero likely means a top preflop hand and disguises a middle suited connector.

- Hero bets $17 into a $36 pot. That could be seen as weak - it certainly is not going to fold out a flush draw or a queen at a typical 1-2 game.

Hero's betting sequence looks more like AK/AJ/JJ/TT than AA/AQ/AK. It would be hard to put Hero on a hand with an 8 based on the play so far. (This would have been the justification for raising 87s from early possition - - - perhaps this type of situation is a sign that 87s might not play well for Hero in early possition)

Hero has little if any data on how the BB plays, but if BB has some degree of skill these bets look weak enough to induce a bluff with any two cards. If we treat BB as a typical 1-2 player, he could have any two cards in the BB since the $4 preflop raise is small. We also should assume the typical 1-2 player is going to play for stacks holding top pair more often than he should.

Big blind check-raises $50 into a $87 pot. If Hero pushes and gets called he needs about 39% equity less whatever fold equity there is. Hero has misrepresented his hand so far, BB is going to be surprised if he tried to think through what cards Hero has. I think BB has a lot of good queens and flush draws to go with the occational overpair and the feared 8x. Not only do I think Hero has the proper odds to bet here, I think Hero has the best hand more often than not.

Summary - Hero has a powerful disguised hand vs Villains with less than 100bb. Hero should press his advantage here and push.

Hero's planning and betting in this hand needs work. $6 is too small a preflop raise, < 1/2 pot is too small for the flop bet. Hero should have been eager to commit to playing for (short) stacks once he hits trips and if he isn't, then it was a bad plan to open up with an early possition 78s in the first place.

DrStrange

I agree with this. I think I'm still trying to be too "balanced" and often make my bluffs and value bets about the same size. You're only exploitable if someone is good enough to exploit you, and I definitely think I can make a bigger bet here and still get called by the same flush draws and queens that would have called me anyways.

This one I go back and forth on. I only had one guy who I felt was capable of 3 betting light behind me, and I had already played back at him a couple of times during the session. I don't mind bloating the pot because this is the type of hand I usually either want to play for stacks or get out.
Sometimes I'll fold here, but between having a good session and a passive table I decided to go with it. Obviously you can get yourself in trouble with this hand, and I'm not sure if the stacks around the table were deep enough to justify playing here.

I think more important is the fact that you mucked your hand after flopping trips. You might not be deep enough to play 78H preflop in EP opening the betting action with a raise (with implieds considered, what would I do if I get reraised, etc.), but once you flopped trips, are you deep enough to dump your hand!??!?! what are you waiting for? straight flush? flopping the overfull?

I'm not passing

HELLLLLLL NO

Also, villains like to call with even weaker 8's like 84suited too (omg pot odds)

Your equity is to +ev you cant fold here

Like I said, I can't say for sure about this villain because I haven't played with him enough. But he really didn't seem to be the type to go past playing his own cards. He very well could have put together that I led out from EP and under bet the flop, and therefore was trying to get away with a cheap steal; I can't say for sure. But, until proven otherwise I tend to think it's almost more profitable, at least in this game, to give your opponents less credit and just assume they are playing the cards that they're dealt.

That being said, I totally agree with mycardsareblank's point about them having no idea what a strong hand is. He very well could be doing this with AQ or KK thinking there's no way anyone could have anything better, and if they did, it's just bad luck. If I start putting hands like this in his range, it becomes an easy jam just because there are so many more combos of top pair type hands than 8x hands.

Of course I love this flop and was fully intending to get it in, but once you get played back on for a raise that size, you need to stop and reevaluate. Yeah, $50 isn't even pot but it seems big to most of these guys.

To me, if he's never bluffing here, the only question is whether he can do this with a big queen. Yeah, he could have a smaller 8, but there are more bigger 8s and I'm more likely to chop with the smaller ones and lose outright to the bigger ones.

You all are definitely right about the stacks and whether it's even worth it to get involved pre though. The effective stacks around the table probably made this a fold pre.

If I did the math correctly, you need about 40% equity...(assuming the button folds)
If your poker stove range is correct...your getting less then that, so unless you think you have fold equity...shoving seems wrong

When I put him on a range though you have more equity..

His range...(I'm bad at this but trying)

straight flush draws 9dtds, tjd, 9jd...
AQo,
A8, 87, 98, t8s, 86s, k8s, j8s,85s

even with this tight a range you have 58% equity....if you drop AQ you have 42% and its still a close call...Add in AXd and its an easy call...

What range did you put him on..

I agree with the fold, not worth it to jam it with a bad kicker in that spot

Grunch.

If we were deeper, maybe we could find a fold. In this spot, I pot flop and call. Average 1-2 villians could even be going crazy with Q10, QJ, in this spot. I'm not folding trips.

Sry meant pot flop, jam

As far as open raising sc's with under 100bbs. Typically not advised, but if weak passive table. With multiple callers pre, and minimal 3betting (only premiums) its not a bad play. Especially 3x instead of your standard 5-6x. Just careful with the flush's.

If it's a weak passive table I might limp these hands utg, or I might just fold. If it's very likely to be limped 7 handed, then there's no reason to make the $6 raise because it just bloats the pot OOP when you're mostly going to c/f.

The time I make this small raise is when you're likely to face a bigger raise if you limp, but if you raise to $6 you're often getting many calls. Most 1/2 villains rarely 3b ever, even to tiny raises. They'll call AK in this spot. But if you limp, they might raise ak to like $17. So sometimes with hands like 88 or 87s if you make it $5 or $6 you can get it 6 way in a big pot. But villains have no idea of bet sizing, so if you check they'll often bet like $15 into $45 because they have no clue, giving you odds to call.

Just my 2 cents.

I don't know if standard 1/2 villains are good enough to semi-bluff CR with big draws here. They might, but a lot of them just call b/c they like to call and play passively. It's actually pretty close IMO, but at the table I probably just shove and rage when he shows J8 or something.

Fold or limp pre. As played shove I guess. Looks like he has an 8 tho