Solid post other than the fact that virtually everything in it is completely irrelevant. I'm sorry, but someone in this spot with $20 left is going to call or fold simply based on their hand, there is going to be 0.000000000% relevance to them how their opponent bet. They're a donk with a 15xBB stack in a cash game, they're playing fit or fold on the flop, OP's actions will have absolutely zero bearing on what he does. If you disagree, please name me the hand that will call if OP "shoves" but fold if OP bets "$20"

I love how you are able to be so certain about the predictability of a shortstacking fishes behavioral tendencies. You don't think he may never have he inclination to call with A high or 2 overcards because, "well I've gone this far" or "is this guy trying to bully me" with his actions? Your post is quite shortsighted.

I'm not about to recite a list of hands that he will show up with because it can be anything. And anything he calls with is better than 7 high...so take the necessary steps in order to best persuade him to fold. There is ZERO reason to go against what is best just because the likelihood of him fit or folding is great.

My post was meant to show that you should practice whats right all the time because you never know when an anomaly is right around the corner and your attention to detail may just stifle a negative reaction to what you're trying to achieve. Whether or not your actions actually affect or have an impact on your opponents play in this hand is here nor there.

I didn't ask for any of this. I asked you to name a hand that:

- Would fold because of the strength shown by betting "$20"
BUT
- Would call because of the weakness of "shoving"

You made the point that "shoving" looks weak but betting a legitimate amount looks strong. I'm trying to explain that this has no relevance on a K63r board against a guy with 10xBB in a cash game, he's going to either call or fold based on his own perceived strength of his hand. If he is inclined to go to the grave with AJ in this spot, he's not going to decide otherwise because OP projected some measure of power by betting $20 confidently. This might be relevant in other situations, but, OP isn't asking about those.

Look at stack sizes. What is the drop in this game also? Players fail to consider that a lot in these real marginal spots in LLNLH live games.

Think a bit more about your decisions

This is the last I will comment on this.

I don't know what hands he will call and fold based on our actions. And neither do you....THAT'S THE POINT.

And since we don't know the impact of our actions, I recommend taking the course that is geared to yield the results you most desire. To completely discredit the idea of being able to manipulate such a weak player (and I categorize him as such by his description and subsequent play) into doing something you would like him to do based off your actions seems beyond absurd. In a game that deals with making plays with the most expected value and disregarding the results oriented thinking of our actions, I gave a way to maximize our EV, even if ever so slightly. How can you reasonably argue against doing the right thing because of the rarity of its desired results?

Too often at these low limits, players are stuck in a tournament survival type thinking mode and will make poor decisions and unjustified plays in the name of stack preservation where stack preservation should play no role in their thinking. I'm simply amazed that you would discount a play because of its likely impact on our opponent. If you were playing baseball and hit a pop fly to 1st base would you not run it out because he is going to catch it 99% of the time?

To reiterate: Don't take things for granted. Exploit every edge you are able to do within your power (legitimately of course). Poker is just a game made up of subtleties and the players who masters the most subtleties usually fares best.

You need to think more dynamically about the game and stop assuming so many things.

This is an excellent point and something I stupidly, as well as other people, haven't mentioned. If this is a standard 10%/$4 max situation, you are losing significant equity in spots like this by inflating the pot.

It was 8 handed, I just only post the stack sizes of relevant players in my HHs. Since it's a live B&M casino it's always gonna be full ring. I'm also aware that the rake makes this game nearly unbeatable, but the fish are so bad and the casino is so close to me that I can't help but go there sometimes.

jlocdog is completely right though and I should have only bet $20. Immediately after the hand this one other hotshot know-it-all reg who was trying to teach me how to play (lol) shouted out "WHY WOULD YOU DO THAT???" as if he was staking me and was pissed that I made a terrible play.

I asked him what part of the hand he hated and he said he hated the shove. He said he hated it because "why would you go all in with just a gutshot???" (he sucks at math) and also because "I knew you were bluffing when you went all in!"

The former is just goes to show how bad live players are with the mathematical side of things but the latter proves jlocdog right. Although the fish in this hand probably didn't care either way, some players do interpret it as huge weakness.

He's an idiot.

I dunno about other casinos, but in Vegas this is going to have no bearing on the rake. What I mean by this is that if you bet $100 and your opponent only has $20 to call, $40 is being counted towards the rake, not $120.

Then hit a 6 on the river and slowroll him imo.

You're missing the point. This isn't what I meant. Building the pot to begin with is what matters with regards to the rake, we are creating a tiny pot against someone whom we can only profit $30 off of, but $4 of this $30 will come out of the pot the times we do. It makes our winrate even thinner.

The flop bet in this scenario would change the rake if we are called. It's at $20+ when we bet, meaning $2 in rake. If we bet, we have to assume a huge percentage of the time we get called, meaning pot obviously surpasses $40 and thus now the rake is $4.

I agree

based on OP's other posts this game is at Hawaiian Gardens where the drop is fixed, making his play even worse

i mean this is soooooo ******ed...why would you raise this junk when you have no implied odds? total utter spew, maybe the worst play i've seen in the forum in a long time

Rake is actually $2.50 + $1 BBJ every hand no matter what. So I guess when I think about it this was pretty spew. But if I have to factor in rake for all my plays then I don't think it's possible to ever come up with a winning play at HG.