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Live 1/2: Good spot to jam on the turn as semi-bluff? Live 1/2: Good spot to jam on the turn as semi-bluff?

01-04-2016 , 10:27 PM
V1: straightforward tag old white male (600+)

V2: 30-40 white male. Looks solid and seems to be a reg 2/5 player. This is the first hand. (270)

Hero: 25-year-old Asian. (500+)

V2 opens 12 from MP, hero calls and other two guy calls, and V1 on BB calls.

Hero holds: 6h8h

Flop: 9s8c2h (pot 60)

V1 bet 20, V2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 5h (pot 120)

V1 checks, V2 bet 50

Hero?

V1 is straightforward, usually bet, bet, bet with strong made hand and never seen a slow play so far. So V1's line seems to be a lot of 9x.

V2 is a reg 2/5 player. His range is more balanced.
At this point, I think his range consists of
made hands: TT+, 89s, 67s, 88, 99
combo draws: ThJh, ThQh, 9h7h, JhQh, 7hTh

I'm ahead of most of his combo draws except 9h7h.
If I raise to 200, V1 should fold instantly. And v2 will get about 2.5:1 to call.

My hand block 88, 67s, 89s. I believe that V1 has a 9.
He will only have 2 combo of 89s, 3 combo of 67s and 1 combo 1 88 and 1 combo of 99. There are so many overpair combo that V2 would never made the call here. He might also fold some combo draws.

Is my thought right?
Live 1/2: Good spot to jam on the turn as semi-bluff? Quote
01-05-2016 , 12:10 AM
Fold pre. I believe you're in the HJ or CO. Suited one-gappers aren't good enough to call a raise there. V2 is too shallow to call too. You typically want 30:1 implied odds with one-gappers.

Fold the flop. You have few outs with middle pair against a donk+call.

On the turn, you have about 33% equity against V2's described range. You need fold equity to make shoving profitable. I doubt your average villain folds overpairs, sets, two pair, straights, or combo draws with overcards. I don't think you have as much FE as you think. Without FE, shoving is -EV. The direct odds aren't good enough to call. It's hard to guess your IO without a better player profile. Sometimes hearts will cost you your stack. I don't think fold/call/shove are all that different. You shouldn't be in this spot though.
Live 1/2: Good spot to jam on the turn as semi-bluff? Quote
01-05-2016 , 12:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nice_Guy_Eddie
Fold pre. I believe you're in the HJ or CO. Suited one-gappers aren't good enough to call a raise there. V2 is too shallow to call too. You typically want 30:1 implied odds with one-gappers.

Fold the flop. You have few outs with middle pair against a donk+call.

On the turn, you have about 33% equity against V2's described range. You need fold equity to make shoving profitable. I doubt your average villain folds overpairs, sets, two pair, straights, or combo draws with overcards. I don't think you have as much FE as you think. Without FE, shoving is -EV. The direct odds aren't good enough to call. It's hard to guess your IO without a better player profile. Sometimes hearts will cost you your stack. I don't think fold/call/shove are all that different. You shouldn't be in this spot though.
Thanks for your advice.
I know my flop play is questionable. I have not thought my preflop call yet.
In live poker here, it usually goes to multiway pot. Should I consider this when thinking about implied odds?

I think he's good enough to fold overpairs but not sets, two pairs or straights.
Live 1/2: Good spot to jam on the turn as semi-bluff? Quote
01-05-2016 , 08:24 AM
I would never count on a 2/5 reg to fold 'any' made hand at 1/2. If he is weak semi-bluffing himself then expect a fold, but I don't think it's going to happen often enough to make up for the times you are behind here. GL
Live 1/2: Good spot to jam on the turn as semi-bluff? Quote

      
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