Villain has been playing a lot of hands and has been 3 betting pretty often, but haven't seen any of those hands go to showdown, so unsure if he's getting seriously out of line with them. Likes to throw money around and I've seen him get caught bluffing at least once in about 2 hours of play. Were about $300 effective
Hero is in the BB with AThh
Folds around to HJ who makes it $6 and villain in the CO makes it $14 button and SB fold and Hero calls knowing villain likes to 3bet a lot HJ calls too.
Flop comes 10s2s4d
I check HJ checks and villain checks
Turn 8h
I bet $28 HJ folds Villain calls
River Jd Hero checks and villain bets $100 hero...?
Most of the time I consider this a pretty easy fold, but given the villains tendencies should we be finding a call?
I think a call is okay in the BB sometimes. Sometimes you should reraise pre though. Flop you could bet some of the time because honestly will this hit his assumed 3 bet range a lot? Turn I would probably just check call since we are OOP. Fold river
Villain's line doesn't make much sense. Overbets tend to be polarized, but it's hard for him to have a big hand here. JJ and TT usually bet the flop (and you block TT). I suppose he can have Q9 and 97 sometimes, but does he really 3bet preflop with those hands? This looks bluffy to me, and you only have to be right about 35% of the time. I probably call.
you lose to AJss, KJss, QJss, and that's basically it.
If he 3betting any other Jxss combos then lol him and prison rape him later on during the session.
If he's calling the turn with a naked jack then he is similarly terrible so pay the man.
i'm calling here 100% of the time and feeling pretty good about it.
I'm also considering 4betting preflop.
What do we think the chances are that he actually did catch a legitimate 3 bet hand here like AA-JJ and trapped the flop? Do we just chalk that up to bad luck and top up?
Villain's line looks bluffy, as said above we need 33% so I call.
Think about it from an aggressive player's POV, say he has something like AK/AQ/KQ. We missed flop, bad, it checks round, OK good. BB makes an obvious stab, we call in position with overs, other villain drops out, good. BB checks, good, he doesn't like his hand, we pot it and we need 50% folds to make money.
I don't like flatting 3! pre, I mostly fold and sometimes 4! if I think it's a good spot.
Before I give my 2 cents. May I ask why did you check river when the J hits? I'm not saying betting is the right play. The purpose of the question is how did you range your opponent when he call you on the turn. Did the J hit his range a lot you think? Or you never actually trying to range him at all at that moment.
I was trying to put him on a range, but his line was very strange making me pretty unsure of my hand reading at that point.
Considering he's pretty LAG I thought his range was pretty wide given the action. Is it wrong in this spot to assume that a LAG may float a turn with two broadways here on the chance that the BB is just taking his stab at the pot when the flop checks through? Given that I really thought that the only hands that I beat that fit his wide pre-flop aggression that could call a river bet were some lower pocket pairs and a lot of his floating broadways just hit a jack prompting my river check.
We should only be checking this river with the intention of calling here, loads of missed draws out there that villan can be bluffing, that's exactly what this looks like. Yes the jack hits some of those draws, but there are much more that it misses, if he binked good for him, but I think this is a pretty clear call....even if the sizing is massive which does put me off calling, but not enough to fold.
I wouldn't have minded a bet fold line on this river also. In fact that's probably the line I would take when playing, although looking now I feel like check call is probably better.
The critical point of this hand is that he check the flop but call the turn. I think this line eliminate a lot of flush draw out of his hand. The flop actually is more favorable for the caller not the 3beter, your cold call 3 bet out of the sb with the initial raiser behind you actually make your hand look much stronger than it is. So I feel the V has a decent showdown able hand but not super strong. Since we can eliminate most of the flush draw out of his range and I think we can eliminate over pairs from his range too. I also doubt he would call too many over cards. Now, what are we looking when he bet big on the river when the over card hits.
For Value: Set of 10s - 1 combo, set of 4s - 3 combo, set of 2s - 3 combo
10 8s - 2 combos J 10 - 8 combos. I will give half of AJ cobos for value since I don't he will have a lot of AJ at this spot - 6 combos
Now the main question is what are the bluffs? Since we conclude that flush draw is mainly not within his range there's really not many bluffs.
I think he will check back some of the 8s for showdown value so I deducted 7 combo out
So, there are total of 23 combos of value, 17 combos of bluffs.
you have to pay 100 to win 170 that's about 1.7 to 1 for your call.
I think you are getting the right price to call. You are really at the top of your range.
In reality, I will actually value bet A-10s to about 40 dollars, this actually will make you less likely to get bluffed. In traditional 1/2, 1/3 games not many have bluff raise in their arsenal. So if you get raised, you can pretty much throw it away.
Results: I ended up folding I felt like he played this hand like a trapped high pocket pair like Aces or Kings on a dryish flop. If he was squeezing light and floating with his broadway hands the jack connected pretty hard with his range. I'll be honest I didn't do the math in the heat of the moment and probably would call if I was in that spot again I just think I was playing a little scared.
I know he was 3! light, but nobody really factored into the equation that he might have been trapping a big pocket pair in their breakdown and I'm a little curious as to why? It might not be a big part of his 3! range, but I felt like it was his most likely holding.
Not betting the flop with JJ+ here in a 3 bet pot would be pretty awful on villans part....we have to narrow ranges based on the info that we have.... Villans occasionally do mad things.... I played with a villan who limp called utg with aa....vs a raise from sb and call from bb and 3 limpers left to act..... You can't possibly assign aa here,yet that's what villan turns up with....
If you try and factor in spam plays into your range your just going to end up with a range of atc for all situations.
Overpairs bet this flop almost always,therfore villan doesnt have JJ+
I totally agree with ronrabbit, If we just randomly assign V to any ranges here then you really gonna get push around a lot. In reality, I don't like the fold, but can't quite fault you for it either.
Just remember, if you are folding a hand as strong as A-10 in this spot, you are pretty exploitable. Sometimes he can have weird stuff, but for meta game implications you can't just fold a hand this strong because for some strange reason you feel that he has an overpair when overpair really is unlikely in this spot. You can fold if you have a live read on him and put him on top of his range which is sets and better.
