1/2, been playing awhile 7-handed, it's super late now and everyone is real deep. Hero has about 800 and villain covers. Image is tight, winning, aggressive (but not often making large bets, either). Villain is playing too loose and passively, is not putting me to difficult decisions, can be a calling station at time. Preflop range is super wide. I recently folded trips w/ a weak kicker to his river 3-bet and got him to show a well-hidden straight. When making large bets, seems to always have a strong hand.

OTTH

Villain limps to hero with AA in MP, raises to 12. BTN calls, blinds call, villain calls. (Okay, 12 was definitely not enough, I don't know why I didn't make it at least 16, but whatever)

Flop (60) : A68

SB donks 15 (he does this a lot and always folds to a raise), BB folds, Villain calls, hero raises to 60, all fold except villain who takes a bit and then calls.

--60 could be a bit small for the raise, but the board is pretty dry and I want action -- I doubt I'll be getting more than one caller here.

Turn (180): 2

Villain checks. Hero bets 130, villain takes a bit and calls.

River (440): 5

Villain thinks about 15 seconds and bets 250.

Hero hates the donk bet, is afraid it means 79, and calls.

Well played. Now call the river bet. There are several 2 pair hands he can have and also be bluffing. I dont think he calls a raise unless he has the straight or possibly a smaller set.

So what does V consider a 'strong hand'?

If it's 2p+ then lol cram for fat value.
If it's a set, then I think it's just a flat.
If it's only a straight then we can just fold.

Most villains play in a pretty predictable sort of way, so what have you seen him do in the past?

idk, really, I haven't seen enough of his play. My guess though is that he certainly thinks a set is a strong hand, and may possibly over value 2-pair if he's putting me on AK or something -- but the line still makes no sense.

It's hard for me to see 66 or 88 x/calling two streets and then leading river. And river didn't help anything less than a straight, unless he somehow is still in there with A5. A6 or A8 are also possible I guess but like the sets, the line doesn't make too much sense.

EDIT: I guess it's possible he's being quite clever with a flopped set or two pair, putting me on AK/AQ and letting me bet it before making the river bet to prevent me checking it back. I definitely didn't (and still don't, really) believe that he was this sophisticated though. Also, x/calling the turn with 79 also seems a bit strange for him -- I would kind of expect him to give up at that point, except maybe 79ss.

We're at the top of our range. I can't see folding. Not sure I would want to 2!/fold or 2!/call so I probably just call and when he shows 88/66/A6/A8/86, kick myself for not jamming

Also, the X/c, X/c, lead line is usually a strong line, I wouldn't call with AK, but if his range is all the above combos (sooted where applicable) and 97s, we're ahead 10:4, so maybe raise is correct, especially if he calls with them all

Edit: his stack only has 350 left, if we raise, it's an AI

I'd probably shove. He can have 2p and combo draws that turned into 2p and assume you have AK/AQ. If he has 79 and called $130 on the turn to smash then what can you do? I think it's more of a mistake to leave $350 on the table vs his worse hands than to lose $350 additional vs 79.

I think this is a shove. The lead is intimidating, but for some reason, Vs do this with a lot of strong hands that aren't the draw that got completed. I can't really figure out why they bet with hands like two pair here where only better should continue, but for some reason they do. Maybe it's because they don't want to call a large bet so they do the only thing they can other than checking. Maybe they think they're best and don't want you to check behind AK, not that you'd call with that hand anyway. It doesn't really matter why they do it, but Vs definitely have worst here that will pay off a shove so do it.

Call > shove, villain could easily have 79 here

Bet sizing on flop and turn is poor and makes it harder to know where we are at

Also relative to villains stack size

If he's passive enough that he'd take an x/c, x/c, lead line here with a flopped set then you should just shove because he isn't folding those hands. The only hands that show up here are flopped sets and 97s. Maybe every once in a while he'll show up with an Ax two pair combo and I still think this type of V would show up with those here too. Shove and expect to get paid off the majority of the time.

I'm a little drunk so bare with me. These are all the hands I think he could show up with based on your line. I think he has all two pair combos(even A5, A2), all flopped sets, all combos of 97, all combos of 75, 74ss, some combos of AK, AQ, AJ, A10, A9, and maybe even some combos of 6xss. In his mind your line is almost never more than one pair. It's quite possible that he picked up some random equity on the turn but didn't think you would fold AK/AQ yet.

Raising this river with your perceived range, which may include some pockets under the ace, turns your range into a bluff imo. If that's the case I think he's only folding his random single pair hands that aren't an ace. Or maybe I'm more drunk than I thought.

-they play bad

So how would you size them?

Bet bigger on the turn. Make it 200 atleast. If he has a set or two pair than he is never folding to any bet so get max value. Also, its possible that a hand like the 75 of spades picked up more equity or 97ss and he will likely call a big bet here.

The reason we need to make it big is that a) he will likely pay us off if he has two pair or better and b) we need to deny him implied odds if he actually gets there with a drawing hand.

Why thinking villain has always the nuts when he bets big. He can only have you beat with 79 and this is the exact combo you suspect him to have. Why you do that? He can have easy two pair or a smaller set. Why suspect him exactly the hand that beats you? Don't do that because you'll not be able to play this game properly by being afraid the nuts are out there to get you. ......lol.lol...

I would have bet much more on the turn to make sure he's not getting implied odds.

Dude, your posts suck. Not just this one, but almost all of them. You're quite possibly the worst poster on 2+2.

And even though you didn't provide any reasoning for the range you put him on, and even though you're not worth responding to, I'll still point out that he flatted the donk bet and then the raise, then x/called turn and donked river. Weird line to take with a set or two pair. Also you didn't even say whether you were advocating a call or a raise. I don't say this however because I care what your opinion on the matter is, but only to point out how worthless your input is.

hahahaha

eeshhh

wtf is lol cram

to lol cram is to express the hilarity of the fabulously profitable situation in which you've found yourself with an audible squeal of laughter, then promptly place all of your chips into the middle of the pot.

I think I just call here. Mid position limp/call, Check/call, check/call, bet river does look a lot like 79 here. Our holdings are too strong, but I think a set raises you on the turn in most cases so even though we are losing to one hand, he is playing his hand very much like that one specific hand that beats us would play it. This is after some time and analysis, in real time I'd have probably shoved, but I think that's the wrong play.

I'm definitely adding lol cram into my arsenal.

As played, I advocate for just calling. I expect him to be highly polarized here to donk out with such a large bet (it doesn't seem like a blocker bet to get to showdown cheaply, and hero shouldn't have many hands he will fold). I would be closer to folding than raising for this reason, absent reads, but I'm 100% in the call camp.

If we learn by calling that he donks out with a set or two pair (maybe exactly A5?) here for value, we'll have much better read for next time we face V, but for now I don't think we have the info to fold or raise in this spot. if we learn he donks with the pure nuts, that's also good to note because I think we can note this in combination with the bet sizing on the river.

Also - I don't hate the way you played any streets. I don't play enough 1/2 so I don't have a problem with the 6X raise sizing , but whatever I trust other 2+2ers if they say raise more pre. I like the flop raise and I don't think sizing is too small. On the turn, your bet is pretty standard. Calling a donk is probably a better outcome than him c/r 'lol cram' us here on the river if he has a straight, so if you lost there's always that silver lining. Nice hand OP.

I'm not trying to be a dick but responses like this offer little help to the OP. If OP knew this information he wouldn't have posted the thread in the first place

I think you played it fine if you shoved the river. I think it's pretty easy to construct a range where you have more than 50%, even with all combos of 97. Missing value is the most criminal thing you can do at a 1/2 game.

ugly, but calling is better than folding. your hand is so underrepped that it is possible that V is doing this with 2 pair sometimes also.

hard to do, but I would raise the flop to at least 75. I know it is hard to do when you have top set and the board is so dry, but I would prefer flatting the flop and then bombing the turn for something like 195.

the pot is 195 on the turn BTW, so I would bet at least 165 on the turn.

Grunch,

Bet more on the turn my god. We want to play for stacks here. Bet at least pot. He's calling with a set. He's calling with 2 pair. You're giving him worse odds to call with 97.

As for the river, I don't hate a call. It sounds like this villain would only do this with a value hand according to your read. He has more straight combos than set combos here. But would he do this with 2 pair? If so, I might raise/shove.

Hand is played well. Betsizing is also ok. Bombing the turn would be silly. I don't understand the advice to pot or even overbet the turn. It seems like this advice is with the assumption that villain has 2 pair + , but in most cases you're just going to get a fold from AX 6X or 8x.

River is pretty close but you need him to call a shove with more than lower sets and straights in order to make shove better than call since you need over 50% equity against his call shove range. There is also the consideration of preserving a 175BB stack to have ammo for future hands of there is a capped buy-in. I think it's super close and would be fine with call.

Maybe OP does, maybe OP doesn't.
Maybe he hasn't really considered that V might think that 2p is a strong hand here. It isn't in the information that we are given, so I ask.

verb (used with object), crammed, cramming.
1.
to fill (something) by force with more than it can easily hold.
2.
to force or stuff (usually followed by into, down, etc.).

In this case we are cramming out chips in the pot, which can barely hold them because we want to put so many in there. =)

I agree that stoically-somewhat-cramming the turn will force more folds than betting 2/3 pot, but that doesn't mean the EV of betting 2/3 pot is higher.