Line check, top set 400bb deep
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 20,431
Of course EV of 2/3 pot is higher. If he has 2 pair or a set on the turn, the money is all going in on the river 80% of the time anyways but 2 pair+ is such a small part of his range on the turn that you lose so much value from much weaker single pair hands that potentially can improve on the river and pay you off.
This is not even bringing up the unbalancing factor in bombing the turn on such a dry board. Maybe next time you find yourself in a similar spot against a competent player but you only have AK.
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,876
But how much more often is villain folding 1 pair to 180 while calling when the bet is 130? Say they call 130 2/3 the time with 1 pair. 130*.66=85.8
85.8/180=.476666. (In case not clear, that is significant because 180*.476666=85.8).
So we only need villain to call 180 47.6% of the time for 180 to be a better bet. That seems likely against a loose, station-y fish. Of course, maybe .66 and .476 aren't reasonable odds to call the bet in your mind. But they seem reasonable to me against described villain.
