Hello everyone, thank you for taking a look. Your input is greatly appreciated.

V1 SB (loose, has been getting lucky on some calls) - stack size 1300
V2 BB (passive player, has rebought 3 times for 100) - stack size 100
V3 BTN (Nit) - Stack size 350.

Hero - 225 TAG for the most part. 66 in the CO.

It's limped around to me and I limp also, BTN limps and SB makes it 11, BB calls along with me and BTN. Pot is 54.

Flop is 68Q
SB bets 20, BB calls and I call. BTN folds. Pot is 114.

Turn is T
SB bets 20, BB calls and I raise to 70. SB calls and BB folds

River is J
SB bets 100.

Thank you for taking a look.

pre is fine
you have to raise flop with intention of doubling through loose V1. I go 80

obv shove any turn

Raise otf to 65 range. If you do that and get 1 caller to the turn, the turn pot will be 54+65+65+20 = 204 and you'll have 225-11-65 = 149 left, and shove the turn.

Not raising because I'm scared of any hand really, looking to get paid off by TP, a lot of turn cards can make the hand more interesting (not that we want that) but no turn cards can stop our plan of getting ai quickly (pre river).

Why'd you check otf?

I actually might not shove ott. A lot of people won't see the 149 ott as a 75% PSB, they'll just see the absolute amount of ~150 and "it's a lot of money." I might go like ~115 and w/e's left goes in on w/e river. A lot of guys in my room find folds with KQ here to that big of a turn bet because they have no idea what's in the pot, I think they think I'm betting 149 into like 80 or something ridiculous.

Thank you for the replies. I just called the flop because I figured a raise there on a dry board like that would just get everyone to fold except for maybe TP/GK TP/TK.

I would like a Raise pre before the action of the sb.

No reason to flat on the flop, Raise to $65-75$.

As played you have to call turn and fold river.

I would raise more on the turn and if I get called I would re evaluate the river. If he bets into u on the river I think you have to ditch the set here. It's tough since he is loose but you have to think what he would be betting here with. I think a pair of 8s with a 9 is in his range along with Q9 or 10 9 and J9. He is loose so he will be seeing a lot of flops with a hand with a 9 in it. You can rule out 99 most likely but not for sure. I think the river is a fold.

I'd like to know a little more about villain's tendencies here. Is he tricky or straightforward? We know he's loose but how loose? How often does he open? And how strongly does he play position? So what kind of pf range does he even have here with his raise? He obviously doesn't understand bet sizing. (Speaking of which, how many limpers and callers were there? Did he open $11 from the SB into a pot of ~18? Four players at $11 and a $54 pot otf is kind of.... odd?)

Pre is fine. I wouldn't mind a raise, but a limp to set-mine is fine and you should have the right odds to do so. When the deep stack raises to 11, a call to set-mine is also fine.

Not sure why everyone is advocating a raise otf here. It's a dry board; raising will get folds that you don't want. Is V1 really loose enough to call a raise without TPGK+? I think if you raise the flop it should be a click-back just to make playing for stacks really easy. The $20 bet is a bit small for the pot-size but at the same time you are almost definitely soooo far ahead that you want to keep people in the pot, betting at you.

So the turn is really weird. The tiny lead on the turn looks weak; same size as the last bet. This to me looks like "I think I'm supposed to keep betting but I don't want to lose a lot of money." So that kind of sucks because if he's really that weak it's hard to get stacks in. ALSO the bet is so ughsmall that your raise has to be big enough that it'll look really huge and scary. All the same, raise to at LEAST $100. 70 means that villain has to call only $50 to win $160. 100 at least gives most of the draws that now arrived poor odds. Unfortunately, if villain thinks in terms of "100 is a lot of money!!!?!" you won't get paid off, but the $70 is too small here. It'd be an okay size if it was checked to you (and still I'd like higher but eh), but as a raise it's not enough.

What kind of range can we put him on when he calls us? We can probably take weird things like A9 out. I mean, is he really loose enough to call a turn raise with A-high and a gutterball? So I'd say this puts him on QT+, JJ+ (?) overpairs, Qxss. Maybe Q8? Maaaaybe Q9? Axss, Kxss. Which of those are in his pf raise-to-11-into-a-million-limpers-from-oop range?

Okay, so as played we got to the river and it's a super gross card and villain suddenly bets a lot. It's like half pot BUT compared to his $20 leads it's big. Heck, it's bigger than our raise ott. This is a polarizing bet.

If villain is bluffy like at all, the J is just such a good card to bluff on that this pushes us toward a call. If he's really straightforward when he bets, just loose on calls, this pushes us toward a fold. Basically it depends on how bluffy/passive he is. Could he ever be spazzing on an overpair or overvaluing 2p here? (My guess vs a random villain would be yes. Given the size of the pot [~280, yes?] and the pot odds, I'm making a crying call -- haha or shove since we have a trivial amount left after the hundred, I think! Like $20/25 more?)

Honestly, as played and knowing nothing about villain, I call/shove, expecting to lose the majority of the time. (But we only need to win 1/3 of the time to be profitable and I think we have that.)

Qx isn't folding, sd's aren't folding. AK/AJ will fold but were we going to get value later in the hand against those? What do you think has a piece of this that folds to a flop raise?

That's god awful thinking. I know I deleted the "only need to win 1/3 of the time" part, but it's much rarer than 1/3 of the time that someone turns his hand into a bluff to rep a made hand. V has the straight/flush like 98% of the time here.

FYP

+1

Why on gods green earth would you ever get all the $ in in a spot where you expect to lose the majority of the time?

You have a set, start shoveling the money in. You have to raise flop with multiple straight draws out there. I would raise to 85 and shove any turn card. Your turn raise is way too small. Now you have to call river even though you are probably losing.

Edit - didn't realize river was 4 to a straight. Fold river.

grunch: I think saying raise on flop is results oriented. It's relatively dry and I'd like to drag other players along as well. Turn is obviously a raise. Probably a bit bigger than you did and shove any and all rivers. Really there's not a ton he has that beats you. AKss. Not really seeing a lot of 9's in his range. Just get it in.

Omgz i have a set.. never ever!! Fold a set!!!!

Think you're leveling yourself. It's 1/2, there are a ton of times you don't know how they get to the river and have a hand that beats you but they do. Q9/J9/97 aren't amazingly played, but realistic.

If V doesn't have spades or 9x, hats off to him for going for thin river value with 2pair or having the capability to rep the straight.

Fair point; a loose player with Qx probably isn't folding. It doesn't have to be GK+ if the villain's extremely loose. So maybe there's a bit more calling than I would give credit for. How many Qx hands is he raising with? How many more hands then is he calling with that he actually has here? So maybe QT sticks around, Q9. Q8s? Q7s?! Pocket pairs < QQ would fold, and we might get at least another bet from those on the turn. As for straight draws, Is villain THAT loose that he's raising 97 from SB? Maybe! We only know villain is loose, not how much he's opening, what sorts of hands he's opening, etc. It definitely fits with the turn action. But that seems like really wishful thinking on what his range COULD be. Is he calling a raise otf with a gutshot?

Eh. In my experience, villains can do weird things when the board gets really scary on the basis they don't want to have a hard decision, so they'll just bet big and make their opponent figure out what to do. I don't disagree that the sudden $100 bet otr is alarming. Maybe my thoughts on the hands he could have are way off but I expect him to have 2p in his range a lot or even a confused 1p that doesn't know what to do. If there's ALSO bluffs in his range, this is the river to bluff at, especially if he's good enough at hand reading to tell we aren't playing like WE have the flush. (Which we aren't with our turn raise. I mean, we should have very few flush draws there, right? AQss and KQss? He's made "lucky" calls. That could be stupid luck, but it could ALSO be decent hand reading.) What kind of hands did he get here with? Again, how loose is loose, and how does that translate to what he opens with? I've seen plenty of players who are loose enough to call most opens pre that still wouldn't raise anything but premiums themselves. Even with a really wide opening range, what spades are left in there, given that the J and T are out? What 9s are in his SB opens? And how are we narrowing his bet to ONLY those?

EDIT: Okay, you say Q9, J9, 97. I really have to discount 97. given that he's described as "loose" rather than "opens almost any 2 from any position" I can def see Q9 and maybe J9 and I can see some spades. But I think that's pretty narrow compared to what he could have gotten to the river with and could bet out with.

So again, I don't think he CAN'T be beating us, just I think he has it less than 100% of the time. Less than 65% of the time, even.

Pre is fine.

Raise the flop, jam the turn.

By playing this hand so passively you're practically giving draws and junk the right price to suck out against you.

I'd only advise calling the flop in a heads up pot. With more players this is a slam dunk raise, there's already $94 of dead money in the pot on the flop (only $11 of which is yours), I don't see why we're so disappointed with raising and taking it down? And we're playing against a loose player who has been getting lucky all night. This is the exact villain we want to raise against in this spot anyways. He's repping KK, AA, AQ, KQ, if he happens to have one of those hands I don't think he's ever folding. He will probably call a lot lighter than that as well.

As played, that Ts is pretty much the golden card to make a substantial raise with. This is what you wanted, there are a ton of hands in their range that have improved or picked up equity... we need to slam them now with a big raise and put the pressure on ...70 is ridiculously too small.

This passive play has put you in this ugly spot on the river. Because we never put the pressure on, he can still have a hand like AK, a flush, a 9, all of it is a possibility. However, you made all of these maneuvers with the intention of getting more money in on later streets. Are you really going to abandon that now? You probably have to wind up puke calling this.

I think this is important to think about at lower stakes. I believe this general idea is spot on and should be used to our advantage when we are looking for calls.

^ Also when we're looking for folds, if certain Vs are folding to that 150 into 200 ott with 1 pair, then start double barreling them with 2 solid bets more often as a bluff.

Raise flop get it in on the turn. You have a set and that is a perfect board to get paid on. Raise to 50 on flop and get the money in on the turn.