Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
Qx isn't folding, sd's aren't folding. AK/AJ will fold but were we going to get value later in the hand against those? What do you think has a piece of this that folds to a flop raise?
Fair point; a loose player with Qx probably isn't folding. It doesn't have to be GK+ if the villain's extremely loose. So maybe there's a bit more calling than I would give credit for. How many Qx hands is he raising with? How many more hands then is he calling with that he actually has here? So maybe QT sticks around, Q9. Q8s? Q7s?! Pocket pairs < QQ would fold, and we might get at least another bet from those on the turn. As for straight draws, Is villain THAT loose that he's raising 97 from SB? Maybe! We only know villain is loose, not how much he's opening, what sorts of hands he's opening, etc. It definitely fits with the turn action. But that seems like really wishful thinking on what his range COULD be. Is he calling a raise otf with a gutshot?
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
That's god awful thinking. I know I deleted the "only need to win 1/3 of the time" part, but it's much rarer than 1/3 of the time that someone turns his hand into a bluff to rep a made hand. V has the straight/flush like 98% of the time here.
Eh. In my experience, villains can do weird things when the board gets really scary on the basis they don't want to have a hard decision, so they'll just bet big and make their opponent figure out what to do. I don't disagree that the sudden $100 bet otr is alarming. Maybe my thoughts on the hands he could have are way off but I expect him to have 2p in his range a lot or even a confused 1p that doesn't know what to do. If there's ALSO bluffs in his range, this is the river to bluff at, especially if he's good enough at hand reading to tell we aren't playing like WE have the flush. (Which we aren't with our turn raise. I mean, we should have very few flush draws there, right? AQss and KQss? He's made "lucky" calls. That could be stupid luck, but it could ALSO be decent hand reading.) What kind of hands did he get here with? Again, how loose is loose, and how does that translate to what he opens with? I've seen plenty of players who are loose enough to call most opens pre that still wouldn't raise anything but premiums themselves. Even with a really wide opening range, what spades are left in there, given that the J and T are out? What 9s are in his SB opens? And how are we narrowing his bet to ONLY those?
EDIT: Okay, you say Q9, J9, 97. I really have to discount 97. given that he's described as "loose" rather than "opens almost any 2 from any position" I can def see Q9 and maybe J9 and I can see some spades. But I think that's pretty narrow compared to what he could have gotten to the river with and could bet out with.
So again, I don't think he CAN'T be beating us, just I think he has it less than 100% of the time. Less than 65% of the time, even.
Last edited by TheKraken; 01-01-2014 at 12:41 AM.
Reason: Missed a post.