1/2 NL. Jack Casino Cincinnati $200 Max BI.

7AM

Hero- MAWG. Up about $100 at this point with little showdown. Only raising large/folding/overlimping not that anyone notices.

Villain - MAWG. Likely a tournament player ($1k Main sat starts in 2 hours and Main starts at Noon) Wearing a hoodie and shades (on his head right now). Started the hand with $200 and has only been here about 1 orbit.

OTTH

Villain is UTG and limps for $2. 2 other Limpers. Hero on Button with AQ raises to $15. Villain calls. All others fold.

Flop ($37)
8:Club:73
Villain checks
Hero checks

Turn ($37)
3
Villain bets $20.
Hero calls.

River ($77)
4
Villain bets $60.

This is typically a fold. Here is where it got sideways. He looks directly at me for about 30 seconds straight. His breathing is very labored but this could be a tell for strength or weakness. After the 30 seconds, he asks... "Big Pocket Pair?" Villain has $105 behind

Hero goes all in.

My thinking here is as follows.

He is either super strong or weak.
A call here is almost never good. His weak hands can still beat me.
The board is super wet.
What is V repping? FH? Flush? Trips? Not sure. With the bet on the turn, FH and trips are possible. When the flush hits, betting large on the river only makes sense with a FH.
What can I rep? All FH, Ace high flush.
Of course, I get snapped a ton here but it seemed like he was FOS (stare down).

Thoughts?

You wouldn't c bet a flush draw, 65, or a set on a wet board? I don't think you can credibly rep anything here except maybe A3s.

Then again villains are mostly concerned with their own hand. If villain is betting a weak hand or a bluff he probably isn't going to think whether it makes sense for you to have a flush or w/e.

So it seems dependent how confident you are in your read.

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Spew

Would you care to expand upon your one word comment or just pad your thread count.

Discounting flushes and trips from my range. Only Ace high could possibly shove over his raise and it is more likely to just call.

My shove here is repping only FH.

Prefer to have a nut blocker here to make this play.

But then again, when he says big pocket pair, and you move in, it looks really really strong...

my god bet the flop. this whole hand is derp. You played it like a loose passive fish, it doesnt much matter if you were actually beat or just outplayed, this isnt a ship situation especially after tanking the river.

Seems to be some contradictions in your post.

1. Hard to determine one as loose based on 1 hand.
2. Considering I shoved the river, it is hard to call me passive. Granted the flop and turn, I played passively (on purpose).
3. It was a ship situation because that is what I did (after tanking).

I think your comment was meant to attack my check on the flop. In live play, I generally play a bit more straightforwardly and saw no need to bloat this pot on the flop. My plan was to attack all good turn cards for my range.

On the turn, my action was passive as well. The turn card changed very little and calling here on the turn when Villain is usually quite profitable. I think a raise here makes less sense than the river.

OP stop defending this play, you post a car crash hand your going to get flamed......
I'll try and be a little more constructive though:
Pre-flop... Pretty standard, maybe a little big given we are only 100bb deep.
Flop....we should be c-betting here, you have to c-bet this type of board, amongst other things to preserve our range......we would c-bet any value hand here because of how wet the board is, if we check the top of our 'missed' range we may as well just play our hands face up.... By betting we keep aa-77 in our range, flush draws, straight draws, 87,89,8t, a8.....
None of these hands credibly check the flop.... So you may as well just tell villan you have ace high no diamonds.

Turn...well when villan bets he is basically saying nothing at all because eof how weak we are repping....we are at the top of our flop checking range, save a3/a7 maybe.... Villan bets, we are now In a really stupid spot, we might have the best hand, but we are capped so terribly vs villans uncapped range we should just fold because it's so easy for villan to barrel.the river.

River....well what can I say,if you think villan credibly has enough bluffs you could call, but that is really really thin and a huge if....
The whole world got there and we can rep almost none of it, maybe 56 would make sense.....
Villan has all the diamonds, all the sets, two pairs and straights in his range, and basically only 9t that missed, or complete air balls.....

The thing is though that villan will look at this as a scarey card and so few villans can value bet thin enough here for your shove....llsnl players woukd possibly even check back 78 there, because if the straight and flush our there....

So we can look.at the river net from villan as polarising.... To total air or something he never folds.... Aq beats all of his air, so either call of he has enough bluffs (seriously) doubtfully....or fold lamenting your decision to not c-bet the flop or fold the turn.....

Not defending the hand as much as terrible 1 liners that have no thought. It seems that is what twoplustwo is today sadly so I do appreciate your time and thoughts.

I agree that the flop is good to preserve our range. Even sets here would bet because of the wetness and when I consider this, my line looks less and less credible. My actions were based solely on Villains line - limp/call pre check flop lead turn lead river big. In the moment, I agree that it was either nuts or nothing but his nothing may be a pair beating my AQ.

I have never done this in the past. Shoving the river with air always seemed to be like a total spew to me. I did this almost solely based on the live tell and some new material I have been reading.

Thanks for the long and constructive reply. Only thing I was thinking was that it's ok to give up on flop. I think the top of our no pair range is AK or AQ with a diamond. With no diamond it just seems too risky to bloat pot. If he calls are we barreling diamond turns?

Additionally your going to have some nut hands you check. If we are capped everytime we check wet flops that's not good.

Idk. I guess I just think the flop check isn't that bad because we have to give up sometimes and this hand is super weak. I'm not a fan of the river jam though.

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Ak/aq makes no real difference to us in this spot, it's pretty much the same thing.
I don't think we should have a checking range on this flop after we have opened if we are Hu post flop.... You can't really check sets or draws here, and this is kind of my point, if we have no value checking range, then any check we make is just going to turn our hand face up as missed at-ak,kq,kj.... Maybe some other random junk that missed.... You could make an argument for checking a 7 or a 3 here on this board, but we ens up in the same boat again.....

Villans line is a super standard line really....if you had 77/88/78/a8/9t/dd you would mostly play this hand in the same way...
All limp call possibles, all look to c/r flop, all then lead turn, lead river..... Yes there are some missed draws there, and yes the river bet significantly narrows villans range because diamonds come in and even some straight make it..... But the fact that his range narrows considerably makes this an even clearer fold Imo. Unless you really know villan is capable of betting complete air, in which case you can call....
The problem with you raise is its based on the pretense that villan bets a 1pair hand here, or 2 pair with the 33, that he can fold....I just can't see a usual villan betting any pairs here at all....it would be a pretty brutal merge from villan to bet an 8 here hoping you bluff catch with a high, I look at it now and think it would be spectacular play, but in game I'm not good enough to bet an 8 there...

We are therefore in the situation that by raising we are trying to get villan to fold the bottom of there value range, which is 89 realistically now, and in my experience just not enough villans fold 89 there.
Especially when we just can't have any overpairs in our range that counterfitted villan on the turn, because going back to the main issue in this hand, any overpair or value hand bets this flop.

Maxsawyer....I think Checking the flop is fine provided we fold the turn.... I don't think we have to bluff with this hand in this instance, but I think we should
.. For all this talk of villans range after he starts betting, he is far more likely to have missed this flop altogether, and a c-bet takes it down a high % of the time.

RR hits the nail on the head IMO.

This is just a terrible spot to bluff as the only hand we can credibly represent is A3s. And there are what 2 combos of that?

You would c bet a flush draw, straight draw, overpair, set, etc.

And it's not enough to think villain might be bluffing. You need him to be bluffing more often than not.

If you have a lock read he's going to fold sure go for it but IME such reads are rare.

And why call OTT here?

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