Quote:
Originally Posted by acerwin
all of the posters advocating a flop shove realize there is another player left to act after us and we are 250bb deep with him, right? just because we know he folds for $25 because of the hand history doesn't mean we know that in the moment before he acts. shoving the flop is about as spewy as it gets.
Well, there are a lot of ways this whole thing can go south. But. If you really believe I have 14 outs, there's no downside to shoving. Even if you discount the overcard outs, it's pretty darn close regardless of which one calls.
Point being, you need only a teeny, tiny bit of fold equity to justify a shove OTF, even if you discount some of the outs.
I need a bit more fold equity to shove the turn, but not a whole lot more.
To be clear, I'm enthusiastic about shoving against the short stack, would greatly prefer to fold out V1. But V1 calling isn't a disaster, just high variance.