Line check with 66 vs. polarized river range
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 985
Villian is directly to hero's right. He just sat down but has been pretty active opening a lot pre and cbetting most flop. Stack ~$250 and hero has him covered.
Folds to V in MP who opens to $7
Hero calls with 66
Button calls $7
Flop = 244
V bets $11
Hero raises to $40
B folds
V tanks for a minute and calls
Turn = 5
Check, check
River = A
V bets $60
Ok, so because V has a pretty high cbet % based on my reads I felt like I could raise 66 on this flop for value pretty profitably. When V tank calls I was a bit confused because he could have a better pair like 77+, or maybe even be peeling with over a lower percentage of the time. I know people just hate to fold in general even though this villian was more competent than your average 1/2 player. I do wonder, however, how this hand would have played out if I just called the flop.
When the turn was a 5 and I have a gut shot, I considered betting but I felt pot control might be a better option since I got called on the flop. I know its pretty hard to V to put me on a 4 here, so my range is pretty well defined.
On the river when he bets out I figure he may have peeled and hit his AQ or whatever. Any other hand or pair he would check for showdown value.
How polarized is villains range on the river here? Is there any way we can call? In most cases, and vs most opponents this is an easy fold. But since we are playing against what appears to be a more aggressive, observant and thinking player, can we consider a call being profitable or should we just wait for a better spot?
I hate trying to make hero calls. They rarely work and they ruin table image. But in this case, with all factors considered, all I can come up with is that he has AQ, AK, or a random bluff.
Please verify if my though process is correct here. It may be a simple decision, but I just want to make sure.
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,039
I hate the flop raise. Since you did, why aren't you betting turn? Forget pot control in this spot, go for value and protecting your equity. As played, river is a fold.
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,726
Flop raise is bad.
River is a clear fold. What the hell do you beat?
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 974
You're leveling yourself into thinking he might call your flop raise oop with just oc's.
With his small pfr and your river raise a 4 is in your range. You might sp it but then, you don't tell us if the flop is 2 tone or not.
When you check behind on the turn you likely don't have a 4 so villain can go ahead and bet TT+ as you look exactly like a 2(less likely) or small-medium pp.
I doubt a thinking player is calling your flop raise with KQ no-draw as he could easily be drawing dead. I'm never calling river.
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,629
His range isn't that polarized really. Lots of pocket pairs can go for think value, it's not like he bombed river. His bet is like half the pot. I FLAT the flop raising is turning our hand into a bluff. If he c bets lots of boards we can for a check call line and see what he does on the turn. We can find out if he is your typical 1 and done c betting villan. Basically just stop and think about what you are trying to accomplish when you raise.
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 353
1. Don't raise for protection
2. FOLD RIVER
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 7,945
Raising flop is awful. Calling river is awful. Shoving river as a bluff is marginal.
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 709
He's very far from polarized. I'd Vbet pretty light here. Like 99+ and there is no reason to think he wouldn't either. Why? Because there are tons of players like OP, hand face up and will call with two sixes.
Also V's hate folding AQ AK so very possible he binked the A and is never folding. Shoving riv is OK if you think this guy can fold and he respects your game. This should yield a high% of folds but we don't have that info.
Flop raise is horrible
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 925
My immediate reaction to OP was "flat flop." But after reading Harringtons book recently, I'm thinking why not just take the pot down now? Our hand is likely best but we will have no idea where we stand if we call down 1-2 more streets, and we are risking the same amount of money.
I'm not looking to get 3 streets of value with a pair of 6s. Im more than happy to take it down on the flop.
As played, fold river.
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 86
'hurrr durrr overpair=reraise' is a huge leak in allot of llsnl players
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 985
I would almost never raise the flop in this spot. However, my thought was 1) he is betting lighter than the average villian and 2) a lot of turn cards make it hard for me to value bet if checked me but make it easier for V to continue betting/bluffing. So basically, I was trying to end the hand sooner versus what I thought was a better player who had some decent reading abilities and not just playing face up fit or fold poker. I wouldn't really much different than if I had JJ. He either has air or he doesn't and if he has air, which I read him for, than it seems correct to raise for value. But I can definitely see why calling has merits too as I might get to a cheap showdown or be able to bet a few non face card turns.
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 925
If I had JJ im definitely not raising. A lot fewer turn cards to put pressure on our hand, and we can let V value own himself with 77-TT.
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 2,171
Ugh, if you are going to raise the flop, then you have to bomb the turn (close to a pot sized bet). You have to continue your 'story' and convince V that 99 is no good.