Hand is 3/5 500 effective against Villain

Villain is MAWG and opens 15 utg (7 handed) Co calls and I make it 60 with AJ OTB only UTG calls

Flop A Q T (135) check check

turn T check I go 75 he calls

River 8 (285) X I bet 150

Curious about flop play with my hand and range and also is betting the river for value too thin as played?

I realized after the fact going over this hand that I don't think I can have really any bluffs on this flop. I just don't think I squeeze very often with a suited connector I would probably take my position and call with 56s-89s. So my range is like TT+ AT+ and KQ with some small suited aces occasionally as well. What is your 3 bet range in this position and how are you playing it on the flop? In game I opted to check reasoning that I have AA QQ TT all AK and AQ ATs and maybe occasional KJs as better value bets. I also have the gutter and spade blocker so I fear a free card a lot less.

However given the composition of my range maybe it is better to just bet range on this three broadway board?

My 3B range would depend on the opponent opening range and eff stax.

Normally, an UTG open range is strong, so I would likely fold AJo. If deeper, the bottom of my 3B would be AJs, which adds potential equity pickup post-flop.

Xing flop also. Turn is a counterfeit card, so I’d mostly bet small, $50ish, getting value from pair/GS.

Preflop: Fine.

Flop: I like the check. There aren't many hands that you beat that he'll call with, plus you have some outs + backdoor outs and a free card is unlikely to hurt you.

Turn: Very good.

River: I would check, although there is merit to betting smaller.

When UTG calls on the turn he could be looking you up with KQ or something of that ilk that doesn't want to fold after you showed flop weakness, but isn't strong enough to warrant dusting off a large portion of his stack. He could also have something like 98 that won't call anything. He could also have something like a passively played AK, AQ, or JTs that will call a larger bet and beat you. So basically, a half pot or larger bet isn't getting paid off by much here.

I would check here against most 3/5 opponents, but throw in another $75 against more loose/passive opponents and hope they call with something stupid.

Just my opinion...

Pre is fine as a light 3 bet some frequenzy with the A blocker and position. I also like every postflop street as played, with the exception of the river possibly being too thin to get paid of with worse in a 3 bet pot with these positions.

Do we know anything more on villain? In a vaccum I'm not loving any of it.

As for river, if we bet is it for value or bluff?and if it's for value what are we expecting him to open raise call pre in EP that he shows up with now?

Well played. I like preflop especially given MAWG UTG $15 sizing. I might make it $70-$75 though to charge speculative hands that get sticky. If we get a fold, good result.

Check flop is fine. Could also tolerate a small 1/4-1/3 size bet targeting spades, KQ, Axs, Tx, etc.

AP turn is fine.

I like a little smaller on river as we are betting pretttyyy thin for value. Don’t want to only get called by better.


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+1. The small/weak 3x sizing makes me want to ramp up the 3 betting frequenzy,and for sure on the button.

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I would fold pre vs UTG. Flop should probably bet most of our range for 1/4 pot

Your range mostly wants to check on this board - if we bet we bet small.

UTG can have all hands you can have with the exception of AA but he doesn't have hands like AJo in his range in theory.

The FD is also better for him since his calling range contains more suited hands.

Check back river

I generally avoid 3betting unknown UTG opens. Would like to have some reads on pf/3b calling range before attempting this. MAWG here could be anything from v snug to calling a 3b with any suited broadway.

That being said, the line is fine, esp. the flop check. I see a lot of suggestions for a smallish river bet. Against a weak sticky V, i.e. one that might overvalue a bare A, KK, JJ, KQ, you might consider going bigger, like 250. Bad V's may interpret your flop check as weakness and a large river bet as bluffy.

This flop was hard because you chose to 3-bet light with a trouble hand. More profitable would be to 3-bet with hands like A6s, 78s, or 55. When these last two hands hit the flop, they are well concealed. With all of them, you will also mostly know where you stand. Finally, your opponents will have a harder time reading you when you have AA or KK and the board falls 456. What was your plan with AJ if the villain bet out on the flop with an AT8 board? Would you expect the villain to call your bet on the flop with a J76 board? Why do you want to put a lot of money into the pot with a hand that’s hard to play?

AP on the flop: What range did you put the villain on when he checked? Did you check because you thought you were behind? Did you anticipate a check raise? Why give the villain a free card? Why not take advantage of the fold equity? AJ put you in tough spot.

Turn: bet is good

River: Value is thin. Prefer check.

+1

When he raises from UTG (aside from his "3x" sizing since no one knows how much he or the table is usually opening), they usually have a very strong and narrow range. I prefer to 3bet AJ when someone opens in a later position and I know somewhat how they respond to 3bets. It's especially good for 3betting out of the blinds with it. But not vs an unknown MAWG from UTG. I always know what the range is for the original raiser when deciding whether or not to 3bet light and if I don't know I use a default range.

results

I didn't post it in my OP but people often will open more than 3x in my casino so when he opens 3x UTG I am definitely discounting super premiums some which is why I am more inclined to 3bet this hand with the caller in between.

Wanted to post the hand because I knew it was thin in game. I'm targeting only KQ QJ and maybe JJ.

My in game thinking was basically he checked three times most players at this level aren't sophisticated so when they check three times on a board like this I am always good. I ended up being right in this example but who knows if it's too thin in the long run.