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Old 12-23-2017, 12:42 AM   #301
Badreg2017
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
From what I understand (and those in the other camp can correct me if I'm wrong), I think there are those who think going 5ways to a 5x raise with 100bb stacks is a perfectly fistpumpy result.

GnotinthatcampG
I don't think it's an easy question to answer as to if it will be more profitable to see a flop 5 ways with aces or heads up in a typical live low stakes game.

So 5 ways with aces in a game where the people are playing about 30% of hands you are going to flop the best hand about 75% of the time and have about 50% equity in what will start as a 25-26 BB pot. In terms of raw EV that's better than 82% equity in a heads up pot for 10-11 BB's. I'm sure we overachieve our equity by a lot more in a heads up pot but mistakes made by our opponents in the 5 way pot will be exponentially more costly.

I'm going to guess that in a game of droolers who are going to raise their one pair hands in 5 way pots it's definitely going to be more +EV to see the flop 5 ways and in a tougher game you are going to want to be heads up.
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Old 12-23-2017, 11:25 PM   #302
Nutland
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

I hate limpers
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Old 12-24-2017, 05:21 AM   #303
ZuneIt
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

I don't think people fully understand just how far from the median variance can deviate.
I have been playing poker an avg of 1200 hrs a year [1400 hrs this year] since I retired in 2014 & have seen some crazy bullshytt go down. I'll give just 2 examples, both of which happened this past week to the same person:

1. Hero has AA & gets it all-in vs. KK preflop. Hero flops a set of aces on a board of A76
V has KQ
If you give Hero a random pair of aces [suits unknown] & this flop vs. that specific pair of kings [potential runner flush], Hero is a 98.6% favorite because he will often be holding the A.

Hero wasn't holding the A this time & experienced one of those 1.4 times out of a 100 that he doesn't have the A & loses.

2. Same Hero has QQ & flats in BB after UTG [AK] o/r to $18 [1/2NL] & gets 2 calls.
Four way to a flop of: QQK
Hero has flopped quads.
I am his V this time & bet [after Hero checks] $30 because there is $73 - $6 rake - $1 BBJ - $1 tip = $65 in the pot.
Two folds to Hero who flats. $125 in the pot.
Turn: KQQK

Hero bets $25. Now I've played tons of hours against this guy over the last 3 years. I know for a fact that he is either chopping this pot with me, or has quad Qs. If by some chance he has AQ & is getting fancy with me, I'll get him otr. However, that is highly unlikely. I flat.

River: [$175]KQQKK

Hero checks. I bet $75 & Hero folds QQ face up.

I have lost track of the number of times that either I have been a huge favorite after the flop and a 90%+ favorite ott, or have witnessed it & the favorite lost.

The 1st example happened just last night & Hero pulled out 3 100's & reloaded the max.

The vast majority of 1/2NL players wouldn't have $300 in their pocket to reload & would be whining about how unbelievable it is that it happened to them. People in this thread are talking about maximizing the +Ev by maximizing their variance, but they don't fully understand what they are asking for. For one, they don't play enough hours a year to make it worthwhile. They don't have the mental fortitude to handle the swings. Finally, they don't have the bankroll.

Last night in the same session, a Rec was sitting next to Hero & ran up $200 to over $500 before running into the big stack with K4

Flop: 653

Mr. Big Stack bets, Kid Rec overbets pot with AA & Mr. Big Stack min-raises, Kid Rec shoves, Mr. Big snap-calls & the flush comes in. Kid Rec exits. He must not have had anymore bullets in his jeans.

Not only did Mr. Big have plenty of bullets to reload with, his net worth was easily 20x more than Kid Rec had earned working in his lifetime. Mr. Big was passing time waiting for a seat in the 2/5/10 PLO game.

Maybe, just maybe, Kid Rec could have saved himself some money if he had read this thread?

Remember: Johnny Chan won his 2nd bracelet going into the final table with a huge chip lead. When it was down to 2 tables, he won several [I heard 12] coin-flips in a row where either he or his V had AK and the other had a PP & they were all-in pre.

Now let's say it was only 6 in a row. That's .50*.50*.50*.50*.50*.50 = 1.56% chance of occurrence

Buying in for $300 & losing 6 coin-flip situations in a row is an $1800 hit to your bankroll & it can happen. I can handle that kind of swing, however, "I can say with complete confidence, that if not for 2+2 Publishing & their forum website, I would be another Rec in the wind."

Last edited by ZuneIt; 12-24-2017 at 05:36 AM.
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Old 12-24-2017, 05:45 AM   #304
setintostraight
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

I'm starting to become a believer that games where we have to limp in order to conceal the strength of our hand are just very generally very nitty games where stacks won't go in without nuts over second nuts. Games like that are pretty hard to beat without actually running decent on cards.

Games like these are negative EV in the long run, because most players will play face up fit or fold on the flop style and just keep losing to rake. Some players may appear to be winning due to riding a positive variance swing.

Quote:
So 5 ways with aces in a game where the people are playing about 30% of hands you are going to flop the best hand about 75% of the time and have about 50% equity in what will start as a 25-26 BB pot.
Where are these games? Vs in my games certainly don't play 30% of their hands and those that do generally go bust so quickly that you may never get a piece of the action. Even bad players know how to get away from a medium strength hand.

Quote:
River: [$175]KQQKK

Hero checks. I bet $75 & Hero folds QQ face up.
If there was a bad beat jackpot available, whoever folded QQ is not a smart person.
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Old 12-24-2017, 05:48 AM   #305
ZuneIt
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

@setintostraight: Guy with QQ is a very smart person.
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Old 12-24-2017, 05:57 AM   #306
djohnson13
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

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Originally Posted by setintostraight View Post
I'm starting to become a believer that games where we have to limp in order to conceal the strength of our hand are just very generally very nitty games where stacks won't go in without nuts over second nuts. Games like that are pretty hard to beat without actually running decent on cards.
Games like these are negative EV in the long run, because most players will play face up fit or fold on the flop style and just keep losing to rake. Some players may appear to be winning due to riding a positive variance swing.
yeah like lowstakes Zoom comes to mind I'm not sure if it's beatable with the rake?
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Old 12-24-2017, 05:59 AM   #307
djohnson13
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post

Last night in the same session, a Rec was sitting next to Hero & ran up $200 to over $500 before running into the big stack with K4

Flop: 653

Mr. Big Stack bets, Kid Rec overbets pot with AA & Mr. Big Stack min-raises, Kid Rec shoves, Mr. Big snap-calls & the flush comes in. Kid Rec exits. He must not have had anymore bullets in his jeans.

Not only did Mr. Big have plenty of bullets to reload with, his net worth was easily 20x more than Kid Rec had earned working in his lifetime. Mr. Big was passing time waiting for a seat in the 2/5/10 PLO game.
isn't it better to flat here with AA when you get raised and try to see the river unless Mr. Big is really really bad?
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Old 12-24-2017, 06:56 AM   #308
ZuneIt
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

@djohnson13: Recs see 2 diamonds & str8 potential flop & think "Oh God! Please don't crack my beautiful aces!" He doesn't realize that there aren't many combos that have a lot of equity when it's raised pre, unless you're up against Mr. Big, but Kid Rec doesn't know his V.
They don't think that it's not likely that their V called a big raise pre with 87s, or K4s!

Mr. Big was playing with pocket change & Kid Rec was "protecting his hand & stack."
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Old 12-24-2017, 07:33 AM   #309
Homey D. Clown
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

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Originally Posted by ZuneIt View Post
@setintostraight: Guy with QQ is a very smart person.
Folding quads in that spot for that sizing is the dumbest thing I've ever seen.
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Old 12-24-2017, 12:20 PM   #310
ZuneIt
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

I was going to respond to Homey, but rather than continue to derail the thread, I won't be responding to any other comments on how either of the 2 hands shoulda' been played.
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Old 12-25-2017, 01:21 AM   #311
ChrisV
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

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Originally Posted by setintostraight View Post
I'm starting to become a believer that games where we have to limp in order to conceal the strength of our hand
No such animal. The entire idea is nuts.

Quote:
Are just very generally very nitty games where stacks won't go in without nuts over second nuts. Games like that are pretty hard to beat without actually running decent on cards.
They're trivial to beat. Unbridled aggression and then knowing when people catch on and you have to adjust. They just don't suit the style of a lot of LLSNL regs. Also, even if played expertly, winrates are nowhere near as good as playing vs people who dump stacks.
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Old 12-25-2017, 03:47 AM   #312
Pork Fri Rize
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Re: Limping preflop at LLSNL

All the dolts in my local rooms think if you're not limping in than youre just a nit waiting for AA. It's quite comical
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