I don't think people fully understand just how far from the median variance can deviate.
I have been playing poker an avg of 1200 hrs a year [1400 hrs this year] since I retired in 2014 & have seen some crazy bullshytt go down. I'll give just 2 examples, both of which happened this past week to the same person:
1. Hero has AA & gets it all-in vs. KK preflop. Hero flops a set of aces on a board of A
7
6
V has K
Q
If you give Hero a random pair of aces [suits unknown] & this flop vs. that specific pair of kings [potential runner flush], Hero is a 98.6% favorite because he will often be holding the A
.
Hero wasn't holding the A
this time & experienced one of those 1.4 times out of a 100 that he doesn't have the A
& loses.
2. Same Hero has QQ & flats in BB after UTG
[AK] o/r to $18 [1/2NL] & gets 2 calls.
Four way to a flop of: QQK
Hero has flopped quads.
I am his V this time & bet [after Hero checks] $30 because there is $73 - $6 rake - $1 BBJ - $1 tip = $65 in the pot.
Two folds to Hero who flats. $125 in the pot.
Turn: KQQK
Hero bets $25. Now I've played tons of hours against this guy over the last 3 years. I know for a fact that he is either chopping this pot with me, or has quad Qs. If by some chance he has AQ & is getting fancy with me, I'll get him otr. However, that is highly unlikely. I flat.
River: [$175]KQQKK
Hero checks. I bet $75 & Hero folds QQ face up.
I have lost track of the number of times that either I have been a huge favorite after the flop and a 90%+ favorite ott, or have witnessed it & the favorite lost.
The 1st example happened just last night & Hero pulled out 3 100's & reloaded the max.
The vast majority of 1/2NL players wouldn't have $300 in their pocket to reload & would be whining about how unbelievable it is that it happened to them. People in this thread are talking about maximizing the +Ev by maximizing their variance, but they don't fully understand what they are asking for. For one, they don't play enough hours a year to make it worthwhile. They don't have the mental fortitude to handle the swings. Finally, they don't have the bankroll.
Last night in the same session, a Rec was sitting next to Hero & ran up $200 to over $500 before running into the big stack with K
4
Flop: 6
5
3
Mr. Big Stack bets, Kid Rec overbets pot with AA & Mr. Big Stack min-raises, Kid Rec shoves, Mr. Big snap-calls & the flush comes in. Kid Rec exits. He must not have had anymore bullets in his jeans.
Not only did Mr. Big have plenty of bullets to reload with, his net worth was easily 20x more than Kid Rec had earned working in his lifetime. Mr. Big was passing time waiting for a seat in the 2/5/10 PLO game.
Maybe, just maybe, Kid Rec could have saved himself some money if he had read this thread?
Remember: Johnny Chan won his 2nd bracelet going into the final table with a huge chip lead. When it was down to 2 tables, he won several [I heard 12] coin-flips in a row where either he or his V had AK and the other had a PP & they were all-in pre.
Now let's say it was only 6 in a row. That's .50*.50*.50*.50*.50*.50 = 1.56% chance of occurrence
Buying in for $300 & losing 6 coin-flip situations in a row is an $1800 hit to your bankroll & it can happen. I can handle that kind of swing, however, "I can say with complete confidence, that if not for 2+2 Publishing & their forum website, I would be another Rec in the wind."
Last edited by ZuneIt; 12-24-2017 at 05:36 AM.