I've been down this road...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...woods-1328737/

I know all about putting myself into marginal situations against bad villains. LOL.

The V may be doing this with any hand, but the reason that I think that everyone is putting him on KK+ is that there is so little to gain. There is only $40 in the pot. If there was $140 in the pot, I could see making a move where the risk-reward justified it. There is something to be said about a growing pile of Christmas colors in the middle. Unless this guy is a complete knuckle-dragger, then he's going to figure that out as well and will not risk $360 to win $40. At least it is not realistic to believe that he will do this enough for you to be profitable.

Does it change anyone's opinions if say effective stacks were around 100BB instead of nearly 200BB?

I think all he is trying to say is that we expect (or some of us do, I did at the time) for Villain to be holding AA/KK like 95% of the time if they take this line PF. And if that 95% was true and we KNEW this then yes we would be correct in folding QQ every time, even when the V ships some raggy bs a small percent of the time.

What you're really asking here is: "at what threshold does this become a fold?"

Because, for 20bb, of course we're not folding QQ here.

For 200bb, of course we're folding QQ.

Every player will have his own threshold here.

I probably call up to 75bb here (on average).

Of course. I'm with Lapidator where I probably call up to 85bbs depending on villains image.

The key to this hand is understanding typical rec-fish and donk psychology.

The question isn't so much "can V be shipping with a lessor hand." That is the wrong question. Anything can happen.

No, the real question here is HOW OFTEN is V shipping with a lessor hand.

This has a direct correlation with eff stack sizing.

Think of a bell curve. Most villains have no problems shipping 10bb, 20bb, or 30bb. But once we get to 40bb now you run into resistance and this resistance increases as we approach 100bb. And as we get beyond 100bb the numbers reduce dramatically. I don't have empirical data on this, but I would guesstimate that less than 5% of LLSNL will 3-bet shove 200bb with a hand other than AA, KK, QQ, AK. And I would further guess that out of the total LLSNL population pool a 3-bet shove for 200bb is going to be AA/KK 90% of the time
.
So for me, this is simple math. It doesn't happen near enough for our QQ call here to be profitable.

I guess the point of departure is how we arrive at our numbers. Online players love to throw around "sample size" as if that is somehow the ultimate in discounting an argument. Sample size has a direct correlation to confidence intervals. A live player's confidence interval will never be as small/precise as an online player's simply because we don't have the tools to monitor hands and track stats.

But that doesn't mean our observational data is irrelevant.

And the overwhelming observation from those of us who grind daily is simply that a 200bb shove in a vacuum without significant hand histories or ego or tilt or some "other" factor is going to be AA/KK 90% of the time. Hell, the lowest I would lower my estimate would be to 80% with the remainder 18% being AK/QQ/JJ and 2% being 72o+

If after all this you feel that calling off 200bb 3-bet preflop shoves with QQ is +EV then be prepared to face off against a lot of AA/KK...

Actually, it's not even the 200BB part of it that matters, it is the relation of the shove to the pot. For instance, if the V raises to $12-15, then you re-pop with QQ for $50-60, and then the V shoves over the top for $380, then I think you can consider the relation of the effective pot ($100) to his over-shove ($330) and maybe reassess his hand. Actually, at that ratio, your average 1/3 player is still sporting KK+ a lot of the time. Now, if the effective pot is $100 and the shove is 100-120BBs, you can start to slip TT, JJ, and AK into his range with some regularity.

There are even more "better spots" in a cash game because your life blood cant just run out on you.

What are you talking about, no better spots in cash game?

I think against this type description of villain, this is a call.

Friends railing you hard and aggressive, this is exactly the type of guy who loves to pull this move and then show his mid pair or AQ. I have both seen, and performed the l/rr with less than AA-AK, and granted its never been for 180bb, this type of player is BAD, according to description, and can easily throw weight behind move like this.

I just think the description makes this a call, and it's possible OP wrote description with result bias, but I'm pretty happy getting it in here, in this instance.

lol

this x1000....anyone else who says otherwise hasnt played enough at llsnl. he limps in pre for 1bb then shoves 190bb into a pot that has about 20bb??? the widest his range here is QQ+, AK+. im calling with AA and maybbbe KKK and folding everything else all day until villain gives me PROOF that i should do otherwise (like spaz overbet shoving with TP on a 10 high flop for 100bb)

DGI, im curious...are you folding KK here as well??? if his range is KK+, then obviously we're a huge dog....and against QQ+, AK+ we're still only a 57% favorite but only if you include all AK....take out half the combos of QQ and take out off suit AK and we're a 45% underdog

If my friends were "railing me hard and aggressive" which they never would.. I wouldn't want to embarrass myself by limp shoving 99 and getting snapped by KK\AA.

I suppose there is a bit of merit to the call camp but it's been my experience that the majority of the time villains make this play for 200BB+ in live 1-2 games it is soley with KK\AA.

Again, watching a villain splash around for 30 minutes does not imo give us enough information to call off 200BBs preflop with QQ.

I'm gonna try splashing around for a bit and pulling the limp shove with AA\KK and pray someone has profiled me loose and bad and calls me with 10's.

Cha ching!

Drunk donks generally dont think within those lines

dgi nailed it

Don't know how anyone can disagree with this.

I completely agree with this, as you say 'in a vaccuum'. However, this is not in a vaccuum, and I think the people advocating call are doing so based on the assumption that this is not the typical situation.

Yes, the VAST majority of times, the l/rr is AA/KK, but given the other factors and the description laid out by OP, it just seems like in this one instance, there is more merit to a call than a fold.

Just my two cents.

I haven't read all the responses but I am thinking about a few things here.
If villian has just lost a few pots or one big pot I opening up my calling range a fair amount

Also open limping then rr is often a strong hand after villian limps behind a few other limpers this widdens his range imo.

If you call and are wrong and he has AA Kk ands its gonna tilt you the rest of the sesion then folding is fine

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This thread would be much more interesting if we were holding KK

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nah we fold KK coz dgi says so.

Yes, it would.

But about two years ago, I basically created a short circuit in my head regarding KK in LLSNL games. For 200bb or less, I'm never folding KK pre unless I'm facing one of 5 nits that I have personal HH with and I know they are never shoving without AA. Otherwise, I'm never folding KK.

So then the argument becomes, "If you don't fold KK, why do you fold QQ?"

Well, KK crushes AK whereas QQ is merely a coin flip. Also, if V's range in this spot is normally AA/KK and we hold KK then this actually slips V's range to AA/QQ since V having the other KK is improbable.

Anyways, I do agree, if we had KK this would be a much tougher decision.

Oh, the other factor in the QQ call would be if we had info that V just came from the pit games and was free rolling "gambling" chips...

Basically, we need more info that shows V is willing to shove 200bb with marginal hands. Just because V is "terrible" is just not enough because there is a quantifiable difference between being terrible and calling gut shots and splashing around post flop for 10bb, 20bb, 30bb vs 3-bet shoving 200bb preflop.

This is one of the biggest leaks I think thinking players have. They see a villain do something awful and then the thinking player thinks, "Man, this guy is a donk."

but the reality is that donks are only donks in certain aspects of their games. Some are donkish preflop, some are donkish post flop, some are donkish with draws, some are donkish with denying the draws, drawing, bet sizing, value betting, etc etc.

One size does not fit all. Now, there is some correlations between various aspects of the game. For instance, a donk that draws no matter what will also tend to over call preflop with weaker hands... But not everything correlates.

Just because we see a villain is terrible in some respects does not automatically equate to V shoving in this spot for 200bb with a hand QQ crushes.

Again, if we had info on villain overbet shoving for stacks light then sure, we could call. but prior to this hand, we just don't have that info and thus we have to fall back on our experience and observational data which says this is a fold in this spot.

If DGI told me to fold AA in a certain spot -- the cards would be in the muck and I'd be ordering another whiskey...

True. but then I would of snapped called, stacked him and this wouldn't be a thread.

Only one person has brought up the fact that it was an over limp and in late postition which imo is a huge factor.... because of that with the other factors like his railers i think its a call. planning to l/r is risky in late position and even fish can understand that.