If he’s super loose pre and you picked up a timing tell I think firing river is probably slightly better than giving up. I would size around $325-$340.

Edit: unless he’s the type who wouldn’t 3! a hand as good as 99-JJ pre.

I'd bet whatever sizing you'd bet here with AQ and live with the results. Would not try to get fancy. Forget balance, I just don't think your line makes sense if you bomb it or sumthin given the way this hand played out and the texture.

Doesn't have to work often at all and yeah definitely wanna fold out any ambitious A high flop floats.

Also it'll look valuey. If/when we get called it's fine because I assume we'll have some strong hands that xb turn and some riverd queens that play this way as well.

AP, just give up. X on a brick turn, then betting river seems to narrow our value range to AQ/KQs.

Turn - I posted a X flop, but since Hero went 45% PSB on flop, I'd double barrel to put max pressure on AsXx/77- hands.

I think this is close, and with the tell it pushes me to bet. There's enough busted flush draws that still beat us that will fold to a bet, and we might get some folds from PPs.

I bet half pot, and expect to get folds marginally more than the percentage of the time we need to be good here.

Not sure we should ever be here though.

I go $275 river and V tanks for a minute or two before calling with deuces.

I don’t usually take these kinds of B X B lines on these boards in 3 bet pots. Q felt like too good of a card to not take a shot on but I don’t have a lot of experience if people fold these types of spots. I wasn’t sure if the line was too spewy/optimistic or if it just didn’t work. I was hopeful me not playing or 3 betting any hands all day might count for a little, but it did not. I know in general people don’t care, but he was engaged with the game and we had been playing for 6 hours and he didn’t seem completely clueless.

He called with 22? Pretty ballsy call, at least now you know that you can value bet viciously against this V for at least some portion of time. Some Vs are just non-believers and if they've been card dead for a long time, they'll call down with pairs thinking you are just bluffing away with AK. Also, I'm in the group of giving up after the flop cbet, Vs range should be weighted towards pairs bigger than 8/big flush draws that we have little fold equity against.

I hate giving advice about the best lines to barrel bad sticky regs but i think its fair to say that these type of villains should be expected to call a queen at a moderate frequency because ak did not get there, and they may even river a pair of queens with a flush draw.

Moreover, this river is not an automatic bet for many pairs, that do beat villain, meaning your bets can be semi-polar.

It is also important to note that when we do try to bluff these types of villain it is much better to go large than economical sizes, even overbetting as default to punish much weaker ranges than sound players have in the same spot. Though perhaps a cheap bet to fold out busted nut flush draw is still ok.

I think it's important to understand what the opponent's bluffcatching region is vs. various sizings. If we size such that we could be value betting QJ+ then Qx probably isn't a fold cuz blockers. A river bet is targeting PPs and A-high, unless we go huge.

It's a bonus if villain folds Qx to 2/3 pot or whatever, but it's dangerous to think that we should check expecting him not to fold a hand he's not supposed to fold. Qx is pretty high in his range here. If he folds most A-high and some pocket pairs a bet is good.

I don't even hate villain's 22 call. It doesn't block any bluffs so it may be a better call than stuff like TT-JJ if we don't value bet 99+ for this sizing. Of course he wasn't thinking about that and probably called because OP obviously has AK. The 3-bettor always has AK.

Thanks for the input. In terms of my value range, I’m definitely value betting all pairs I 3 bet here (99+). If I had ace high I definitely wouldn’t be bluffing, having k high gives me a few more targets to bluff.

Why would you ever check a hand as strong as 99 Ott though?

I hope so and this is why

I don't expect 22 to fold ott. I would be going for three streets.

Yeah—- I agree— but you want to add some good hands in your turn xb range so that you’re not lighting money on fire when V decides to station more than you expect otr.

This is assuming you plan to bluff this river a healthy amount in the first place of course.

Even if V isn’t aware, which is usually the case, protecting ourselves to a certain extent is always good.

I honestly don't plan on ever bluffing this river. The frequency at which I bluff rivers live is just so slim. The only combos I take this line with are AQ and KQ that had no FD Ott.