This hand has a somewhat similar concept to the observed hand I posted here
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...-hand-1751087/

EP opens to $20. There are 2 MP calls. I call in the BB with AdTd.

Flop ($80) Tc8d4h. I check. EP bets $35. Both MPs fold. I call.
Turn ($150) Qd. I check. He bets $275.

This hand is different than the "observed hand" but the concept is similar. The preflop raiser down bets the flop and then when called by a guy OOP (this time me), he blasts the turn. He absolutely pounds the turn. This time its almost a double pot bet. WTF would he do that? I submit its because he wants me to fold. He may have a big draw with lots of equity, but I just dont believe anyone does this with a big made hand. I dont believe he would bet that much with Qx or anything better than Qx.

We are about $600 effective when the turn is dealt.

This hand, I also have a nut flush draw to go with my pair of Tens. Forget about the FD I think Im ahead right now. I crai. Thoughts?

Thank you for posting. It appears we are both conveniently very interested in this subject and looking to combat it/employ it ourselves. I'm going to post a turn overbet hand from a 2/5 session around a week ago, later.

We have way more combos of QJ, considering we have QJo, all J9s and he probably has none, also we both should have all QTs. Defending AT here seems optimistic, but I'm not as talented in the "how much of our range do we defend here?" Is defending with exclusively AdTd an option here?

I thought we aren't supposed to make aggressive plays vs polarized ranges unless we're nutted?

My personal opinion is that's nonsense. If we knew for sure he would jam the river 100% of the time no matter what he had or what the river card was, then we can call down if we think we are ahead. Buts that's impossible to know.

If we think we are ahead on the turn but he will only bet the river when he hits his big draw, or when he already has a big hand....but always checks when he misses, then we can never make more money on the river and can only lose more.

In reality, he will be somewhere in between. Sometimes he will fire again on the river when he misses. Sometimes he wont. Since I have no way of knowing what those percentage are, I go with my gut and if I think I'm ahead now...Im sticking it in now. Clearly the FD gives me extra courage to do that.

Pre looks ok slightly deep multiway. We are now somewhere in the middle of our range with a good nut draw to go with it. Even though we block him having nfd he can still have worse hands like AJ, KJ, or being weird with something like 67s or pair plus gutshot. You have to remember that if he's doing this strategy with the AJ KJ he is probably going for home runs when he does have value hands. It would be funny if he is valuebluffing JJ I'm still not convinced raising all in is better than call though.

As an adjustment I'd slowplay big hands otf much more.

I've seen 2 types of V's do this
Tight nits, who wanted a little more $$$ on the small flop bet but now want to deny you drawing odds to beat their KK

and the young guns looking to use position to get you to fold
as they may or may not be ahead but have position and don't want you drawing cheap.
so you have a choice check flop with plan of jamming or folding to the overbet
or donk lead big BUT this will only be called or raised by better

so as much as everyone wants to play range vs range
I think the 1st couple times you play back you should be at the top of your range so if shown down they get the message.

this hand if I call turn
I plan on c/c river

Clarification please?

These hands you posted seem to infer villain is only down bet flop/overbet turn with weak hands/bluffs.

Yet it’s my understanding this strategy should be used for entire range or at least value/bluff range.

If he is doing this with entire range/value/bluff range how are you determining when he’s doing it as a bluff. Which you seem to KNOW he is in both examples.

Seems pretty arbitrary to me how you are determining this.

Also, in this example it’s a little bit self serving that you have the flush draw to go with this. If I’m understanding what you are saying over all, you should be doing this with atc, if you are as certain as you seem to be saying.

Here too it’s for value when you are actually ahead and a bluff/semi bluff when you are behind.

I’ll keep reading these 2 threads, but the one thing I’m really curious about is how/why you think you can determine these are bluffs.

cbet small into turn overbet from ip is a strategy used by solvers, it works well because once ip cb small oop response is to raise at a high frequency to combat ip from realising there equity too often when turn goes x/x.

as for the actual hand ip is probably misplaying the spot and shouldn't be using this sizing especially if im reading this correctly and only has $325 left for the river. he picks a polarizing sizing and should be bluffing 67/aj etc. ATdd is an obvious peel, not sure how good jamming is for us.

I dont know anything for sure because this line almost never gets called by anyone. The fact that it almost never gets called tells me that it would be pretty dumb to do it with a strong hand. Therefore, I suspect its a bluff or a strong draw and almost never a strong made hand.

PS...this villain is not the same villain from the observed hand.

Yeah I know not same villains.

More clarification.

Are we assuming villains are competent in using this strategy?

Is your premise, it doesn’t matter?

When you have better hand, you get worse to fold.
When you are behind you are turning your hand into a bluff. What’s villain supposed to do with AA?

Will you employ this play with ATC?

If it’s effective enough % of time why not if you say no.

You say villain won’t do this with value hand. It seems counterintuitive to you.
If he’s employing correct strat, he should be. No?

.

I agree we're talking about two different villains. Villain #1 doesn't have to be a nit. He can also have something like 2 pair or a set to do the same thing. The good news is that they are easy to separate. Villain #1 is only rarely doing this.

Villain #2 is doing this all the time because at LLSNL almost nobody is balanced. The villain will have noticed that people fold all the time when they start doing this. It feeds their ego and they convince themselves they are the old Harrington description of a tricky/trappy player. Therefore, they do it when they have nothing and slow play when they have a monster. Because when you have a monster, why would you want people to fold?

I agree with Mike that the dividing line for Villain #2 is TPMK. TP or less, he'll do this. He'll slow play his better hands.

If you do run into the unicorn that is actually trying to balance his range, moving to another table is the most cost effective solution. Otherwise, you need to carefully observe for a long time to see if he is unbalanced at all and then exploit that.

This should not be an overbet spot for Villain. You have more J9s than him. Also we aren't going to be XRing sets as often on rainbow boards. So our range is still uncapped.

You want to keep his bluffs in so just call turn.

Curious on results.

Do you think this guy could possibly bluff the river if I call an almost double pot bet on the turn and then check the river to him? He cant possibly think Im calling that much with a draw or that Im folding the river very often.

I mean you could have a hand like exactly the one you have, that calls turn and folds river in his mind. And he could try to bluff you off that. We should be folding river here unimproved anyways if he jams.

It is less likely he bluffs river when he OBs turn but shoving is just letting Villain free roll you. He gets to always call when ahead and always fold when behind.

I don't usually try to guess what my opponents are thinking - sometimes they are irrational. Just play your range here and call turn then X river.

No, he doesn't free roll me if he has a big draw. He has to call off his whole stack to try to hit it. I think most times when people makes these overbets they have total air or a big draw.

This is a pure jam or fold situation, imo. Figure your equity and then jam or fold, depending. If you call here, you have 270 in a pot of over 700. Can you fold to any bet otr?

You are blocking diamonds. He raised from EP. It is way more likely he has a strong made hand over a big draw.

What big draw do you even think he has? There's not many.

Every street is played independently. You can't assume something OTR that hasn't happened yet since

1) You have no clue what Villain is going to do
2) Every action has an EV attached to it. Shoving would never be higher EV than calling unless we saw Villain's hole cards.

Why do you think this guy is logical or rational?

Stop trying to combat exploits...just keep calling.

Mike is saying he doesn't think that a Low/Mids stakes player is taking this turn overbet line with a balanced range. Therefore blockers wouldn't matter. Perhaps for some player types it is nearly always a bluff. But for other player types this could represent a scared AA or KK protecting against the unlikely draw.

Best part is digging down deep and deciding ip must have some kind of high equity draw, raising to make sure he can’t bluff off the rest of it otr where you’ll only need a quarter equity, then realizing you block the majority of his high equity draws, then realizing he prob has air then and he’s gonna fold, then posting about it.

No, actually since this is a forum where we are all supposed to be studying, exchanging ideas and trying to get better....the best part is me posting about a newish issue that is becoming a trend and trying to find a way to combat it. Posting how I think I will attack the issue. Being in that situation situation shortly afterwards and doing exactly what I said I was going to do....and posting about it.

The worst part is the constant totally necessary snarky comments from people on this forum. But I guess some people just get off on being an ******* so congrats on succeeding.

I mean, IP did make some sizings mistakes and it’s pretty hard to screw up the hand when you flop/turn the effective nuts, regardless of IP’s response to the x/jam the hand isn’t that interesting. If we call turn we only have a 43% psb otr so jamming is mostly w.e/fine. It’d only be interesting if we had say A4cc here or whatever and see a stack spew-off or a “genius” jam, or if stacks were deeper such that we had at least 70%+ psb left otr.

Your last paragraph describes a lot of the forum/internet; that’ll never go away. Pretty funny that you whine about that since you’re likely one of the first people to come to mind for many posters wrt that.

This hand was a bad example to discuss your point. Would you have played the hand much differently if villain bet “normally”?

Trying it with ATC would seem a better “argument” for your point.

Edit: I see Minatorr just said basically same thing.