$1/2

I had just taken a break. I came back and posted $3 in the CO.

V1 sat down while I was on break, so I have no poker reads. He's a 40 y/o white guy. He's wearing a cheap Walmart-ish collared sweater type thing with a cheap watch. He's got no wedding ring on.

V2 is a bad loose-passive player.

V1 (~$125)
V2 ($300)
Hero ($300)

Pre-flop
V2 limps in MP
Hero checks his option in the CO with Q2
V1 completes his SB
BB checks

Flop ($8)
Q72
Checks to hero who bets $10
V1 calls
V2 calls

Turn ($35)
J
Checks to hero who bets $25
V1 raises to $65 (He's got ~$50 behind)
V2 folds
Hero?

That sizing looks super nutted ott,with villains description I think this is a gold in a limped pot.

Is a MAWG going to raise the turn with TP? I'd say probably not. Since that's the case, I'm fine with folding this. You don't beat anything other than 72. He isn't going to complete that much of the time.

Absent poker reads (cheap walmart sweater FTW), I fold. Dry flop, QJ got there, hard to imagine shabby MAWG is getting frisky OTT with a FD. So his range mostly is AQ-Q9 and sets. We don't know if V will raise to protect vulnerable hands so I'm reading he's fairly strong and either binked the turn or already was ahead.

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Venice I respect your game immensely, and you've made me a lot of money with your advice and posts. That being said, I think I disagree here.

I think folding this hand is a bit Mubsy, and here's why. In my experience, GENERALLY V’s will bomb this flop with any kind of top pair, two pair, set, overpair type hand to “protect against flush draws”. V didn’t do that here. If V really is a MAWG (and remember, we don’t have any proof that he is) would he really check call something like AQ, KQ, QJ on that flop? Hero didn’t raise preflop, so it’s not like V thought there was a good chance at a check raise on the flop.

The flip side is that in these games, it’s been my experience that the later on in a hand aggression is shown, the less likely it’s spazz or air. A check raise on the turn is pretty strong, and I think V BELIEVES he’s really strong here. He could have something like J7, AcJc, 9To, 9cTc in his range. It’s really close imo, but readless and with only $50 behind after the raise, I think this is a call.

Is any of my thought process off here?

I thought the same thing you did at first. But is 9T calling our overbet on the flop? Is AJcc trying to get it in with his draw?

Even if he has J7 in his range it's a fold, since there's still money behind.

Board: Qh 7c 2c Jd

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.142% 26.14% 00.00% 3765108 0.00 { Qc2s }
Hand 1: 73.858% 73.86% 00.00% 10637669 0.00 { QJs, J7s, QJo }

I think T9cc and AJcc could absolutely call this flop bet. I don't think fish necessarily look at this as an overbet as much as "it's only $10 more".

He could decide to bluff with them now. But he's probably passive if he called with them on the flop. In any case they don't change much.

Board: Qh 7c 2c Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.773% 34.77% 00.00% 153 0.00 { Qc2s }
Hand 1: 65.227% 65.23% 00.00% 287 0.00 { AcJc, QJs, J7s, Tc9c, QJo }

Fair enough. I'm curious for the results now.

Also, what happens to the equity if we remove QJo and QJs? The assumption being that V bets the flop when he hits TP with a flush draw showing.

The villain didn't bomb the flop. He called hero's bet. I agree he won't c/c the flop with TPGK. He's showing aggression later in the hand (the turn). That's we don't beat him and should fold. Now if the villain raised pf then bet the flop, I love a raise. He'll put us on a lot of FDs and we'll likely be ahead if he shoves over.

Wow y'all must be playing in some real tough games where bad passive players are often making bluff raises on the turn. I've not experienced this.

Fold. We have no reads and I doubt a 1/2 player gets tricky like this with AQ. Only other two pair we beat is 7,2.

Results:

You know what people are called who never fold a potential winner?

Agreed. Thanks for checking in and posting the results for us.

On a side note, I would have raised preflop to $10 since theres a limper, my own dead 3 out there and position

Interesting. I always think of posting in LP as a tax. I never thought of just raising and taking control of the hand. I'm definitely going to try that at some point in the future; although I might look for something a little better than Q2o.

Got to give you props, Gorga. I don't know how, but you were right on the money. Vs confidence was oozing. There was no doubt that he THOUGHT he had the best hand. When he flipped over J7, he did it like he was flipping over quads. "See. I've got the nuts."

Wow at all the players that state this is a fold. There is just to many hands that villain can have in this spot that I am shoving turn without worry. Yes sucks if he has 77 or QJ but 10c9c, JcXc besides badly played hands like AQ or really badly played hands like AA are still part of villain's range. These are villain's legitimate hands he can raise and be a dog add in the complete random spews you see at this level and always turn shove

How was he right on the money? Three of the four hands he said villain could have were not even in villain's range (AcJc, 9To, 9cTc).

Passive players do not have T9cc JcXc here. Fact is the vast majority of players are pealing on the turn with those hands.

A jack hits and suddenly villain goes crazy with top pair or an over pair? That makes no sense. Also, it seems as if you completely ignored the fact that villain is in the small blind, second to last to act pre which pretty much takes overpairs completely out of his range and if he is passive enough to limp with AQ pre and passive enough to check/call this flop with AQ, I'm not sure why you would expect him to go crazy on this turn which is a potential scare card for AQ.

I don't come here for props or anything like that, only to learn and bet better. I've been working on my in-hand thought processes and hand reading a lot lately so i won't lie and tell you i didn't crack a smile when I saw results. That being said:

1: With the exception of 9To, which is admittedly pretty optimistic, I stand by that range of hands I gave villain. In my games villains will 100% call that flop bet with a flush draw. I'm surprised that so many here say differently to be honest. T9s may be less likely than say, an A high FD, but V is calling this flop bet with two clubs in his hand and T9 of clubs is a more likely preflop complete than say, T3 of clubs.

2: I honestly don't know how you can say anything about V's range and how passive he is. He's literally brand new to Hero and we have seen zero hands being played. If you want to default to a MAWG profile, that's fine, but you can't have it both ways. A MAWG is simply not going to c/c a flop if he's holding TP, Sets, 2P when the board is flushing. They are petrified of flushes and are going to bomb the flop to protect against it.

Do you honestly think that the people who were advocating a fold didn't realize that J7 was in villain's range?

Now you are simply making a false argument. Nobody is contending that they wouldn't call the flop with a flush draw. What I am contending is that they would not raise the turn with one (even if they would, it wouldn't be sized like this but that's a moot point if they aren't raising at all).


I'm not sure what game you're playing but rec players like this slow play all the time. I do agree that this is more heavily weighted to two pairs QJ/J7 but sets also make a portion of his range These type of players don't often bluff on the turn with straight and flush draws or 2nd pair and a flush draw. I'm not sure but it seems like perhaps you are projecting the way you think onto them.

No idea why I'm taking a stab at this -- haven't played poker in awhile, and am only a mediocre live NL player anyway.

That being said, with no reads on the dude with $125 completing from the SB, I'd need a good reason not to get this in (like, he turns over his hand and I see it's better than mine). After his turn raise you're looking at committing $90 to win $175 (almost 2:1) and you've got an okay 2-pair. No need to overthink this, just ship.

If you insist on overthinking it: there are 9 combos of J7 and only 6 combos of QJ (I wouldn't limit J7 to J7s for rando SB completing with limpers). All the other stuff in his range, from 77/Q7/22 to XcYc to J2 to random "WTF are you doing?" hands offset or tilt in the favor of putting money in. Dude is unknown, nothing he's done has made me want to give him credit for being a good player, and there's a plausible path for him to get there with plenty of hands you beat. Even if it comes out to be exactly break-even from a pot odds perspective (which I don't think it is), I'd get it in based on an optimistic belief that a complete unknown is more likely to overvalue his hand than a decent player would.

This is an awful post and terrible advice for winning at these stakes

He was right on the money by pointing out that V THOUGHT he had the best hand. One of the reasons I made the lay down was that V was very confident. I grilled him verbally for about a minute before folding. I concluded that he was genuinely strong.

There was little doubt in my mind that V thought he had the best hand. I didn't consider the possibility that V was misreading the relative strength of his hand. I don't play against too many pure level 1 thinkers these days. This is what V turned out to be. He didn't care what I had. All he knew was that he had two pair and that's an awesome hand. He wasn't even considering the possibility that I had QJ or better.

Mentioning J7 was icing on the cake. Gorga wrote in bold before the results were posted that V "BELIEVES" he has the best hand. Gorga was right on the money for pointing out that what V believes to be true and what actually is true might be two different things.

I think Gabe Kaplin's analysis of this hand between Jamie Gold and Doyle Brunson is correct and shows the same theme. Jamie BELIEVED he had the best hand. Doyle read him for strength and folded the better hand:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjN2zQCDvjA