Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
I have nothing against LAGs. I have a LAG gear I use pretty often, whenever the table is tight enough, since trying to LAG it up at LP tables is a recipe for disaster. What OP describes seems 1) not to be LAG and 2) not to be based on anything real. Every occurrence is 50/50, really? Is this a horrible level, or stoned logic?
Sigh.
Neither.
Stat 101. The stuff poker theory is based on.
There is a basic assumption of normality that holds all statistics together. Distributions are normal, across all number of observations. For these observations typically hundreds of thousands are used. "Variance" exists because it is random on each individual observation (50% is equally random), but equal to a nice % long term to infinity.
Aka in the case of KK vs AA:
There is a 4% chance of you being up against AA with your KK, poker theory and stat assumes normality. Therefore whether you play this hand 10, 20, 100, infinite times he has AA exactly .4, .8, 4 times respectively.
And in my opinion this is all a moot point. No PF hand is unbeatable OTF/OTT is my point. Just a matter of the right holdings at the right time. Personally speaking, nothing is comforting about losing your stack, period. Less so a math theory that your gut tells you is wrong. So take every hand as it comes, with whatever you've got, and dont just out your chips in because someone told you to.