H: been playing mostly Tight but aggressive. Caught bluffing a few times.
V: I respect this player a lot. Prettt good. Mostly playing TAG. I was on his direct left now he moved to my direct left and commented on how I was 3 betting him so much. He’s the best player at the table in my opinion.
Everyone folds to the HJ who limps for 3. I raise to 18 OTB. Villain is in the SB and he reraises to 55. I just flat. I know I should fold here most of the time.
($115) Flop 6 4 2 rainbow he checks and I check it back
Turn is a K and he bets 75... we call
(275) river is a jack and he checks... as played we should...
Check it back on river. If villain is good he isn't going to fold better and there isn't much worse that will call. He could have QQ that might pay off one bet but he also has a lot of AK in his range.
I think its pretty unlikely he has QQ or AK. I do agree though that its unlikely he calls with a worse hand. There's probably more value in checking it back and seeing his hand at this point.
I wouldn't be surprised to see something like A5s.
Bet $130 or so. I used to always check this back but I leaning towards this is pissing value away. What hand are we behind to here that checks river? Not too many.
How wide is your button opening range? Folding KQs on the BU to a SB 3-bet from a good player seems really terrible. I may call with a lot of worse hands, too.
River seems like we have the best hand a lot, but he’s often just giving up on a bluff. Why would he check a hand like QQ/TT on the flop then bet when the king comes? He may have KTs/K9s it hit a J and is trying to show it down, and AK often bets again, so bet river. It doesn’t have to be big.
He ended up having AK here. He felt he played it bad and was gonna bet on the river and honestly I probably would have called. I checked the river.
Here is what I was thinking. I was possibly considering potting it/over betting on the river because I block AK and KK and he seems capped here. He said he would have to think very long and hard if I did this but I feel like he would have to call any sized bet especially if he checks the river. I don't think I have any fold equity really at all considering how the session has gone so far and he is near the top of his range.
I guess I lost the minimum here but I was kinda being results oriented
I disagree. I think you played it correctly. Hes very very rarely calling the river with a hand that you beat and there value in checking back and seeing his hand.
Im also fine with how he played it. Look at everyone here that wanted to bet the river with your hand. He makes the max against all of them with a check/call or check raise.
Edit: saw earlier discussion, but not results post when I wrote this.
Assumptions:
Both players are competent and each considers the other competent.
V is thinking on the first and second level (what do you have, what do you think he has), but not on the third (what do you think he thinks you have).
V can 3b light, but we don't have a 3b/4b/5b dynamic going on.
Turn completed the rainbow, so there aren't any flush/straight/pair combo draws.
I don't think V has TT - QQ here. It's not a great line to 3b these pre, then check the flop when there are 8 - 16 cards you don't want to see OTT, then bet the turn when one of those cards does appear. Seems like a line designed to give you the best price to catch up and then pay you off when you do, or give you the easy fold when you don't. (Unless you have a history of snapping him off with ace high.)
He might have AK, but why the river check? Why not go for some value with a smallish bet/fold? I also put a tiny smidge of weight on the turn 2/3 pot bet on the fairly dry board. If he were going for value, I think about half-pot would have been better there, too. I think half pot OTT and half pot or a bit less OTR would be a pretty good value line. Obviously, he can have AK (or KQ or worse) here, but I think the likelihood is reduced.
I think the most likely hand is the most straightforward. He 3b either light or with something like AQ. Missed the flop and checked. You showed some weakness with your check back and then a good barreling card came. He took a shot and has now given up.
If you want to see his hand, check it back. If you don't want him to see your hand, b/f 100. (I think the EV loss of either losing the hand or getting bluff raised is about the same as the EV gain of getting looked up by something unexpected so the bet costs variance but not EV.)
If you want to mess with his head, b/c something like 40 (or 43 to make it even more weird). You might get a curiousity call from something like A6, A4, or A2.
Some questions out of curiousity:
If you normally fold KQs here, what made you call this time? What did you range him on for the 3b? Do you know with what sort of hands he likes to 3b light? How often he 3b light? Did you consider a bluff 4b? (Not suggesting a 4b bluff would be my usual approach, but I think it's good to consider all the alternatives.) What would his response to a 4b have been?
What was your plan when you called? Make a hand? Move him off his hand? How?
How did the flop check back figure into that plan?
What did you think when he checked the flop? Is that a sign of weakness? Strength? Could be either?
