This is my first strategy post, so I apologize in advance.

Game is a $1/$2 NL private game and pretty loose.

$5 Straddle, two limpers, Hero is on button with KsKh and raises to $20 ($325 behind), one caller UTG +1 ($500 behind, hit a few sketchy draws, very loose, overplays hands, calls alot of flops, losing player most of the time, has played with hero a number of times)

Flop is 2s 6s 10s. UTG +1 bets $80.

My read is that he has As Xx, A 10 (although he would usually raise with that in that position), J 10, 9 10, or some variance with 10.

Question is do I jam or just call? What is next move if a non-spade or non 10 hits, or what is next move if a spade hits?

Would V call with worse if you jam? Would V fold out better?
Why don't you think villain could have two pairs, sets or a flushes?
Does V try to steal on monotone flops?

If you think V is charging your draws with TP then flat and let him hurt himself.

I would raise this type of player more PF when IP unless your betting pattern will give your hand away. AP I would just let him control the betting here. Call his bets and check his checks even if a spade hits the Turn or River. Once you call the Flop bet he will figure you for your hand.

If you are ready to get stacks in, then go ahead and raise Flop or Turn.

I have found that its better to let this type of player control the betting on a Flop like this even though you risk being caught on Turn or River. After a bet like this you may see an even more crazy bet on the Turn ... you just need to decide how far you want to take this before you act to the overbet on the Flop. GL

get it in.

Tank flat and jam over all turn leads.

I mean getting it in otf is fine too. It's w/e.

No need to apologize OP; your post was very good!

Raise more preflop given the straddle and the 2 callers thereof. I'd make it something like $30-35 here with my whole raising range.

Given the villain description, I think this is a pretty clear shove; he's likely to be overplaying Tx and/or the As, and seems to be the type who can call a shove with those. You don't really want to call and let a 4th spade hit because if he has Tx it will kill your action and if he has the As it will kill your hand (overcards also might scare Tx, and a non-spade might slow down the As, so there are a lot of situations in which he might not want to put more money in on the turn whereas he would have on the flop). Another spade only helps you against sets and flopped non-nut flushes, which seem like a relatively small part of his range combinotorically. If he were a competent TAG, this decision would be much closer.

Pot is $60 and villain bets $80?

Seems like a small made flush to me.

I probably flat flop and see what he does on the turn.

I don't think jaming $300 here gets called by anything we beat.

Never folding here though.

Shoving or raising near 3x is the same, either way villain knows you're committed, no turn cards are going to stop you from getting ai ott if you don't get ai otf.

For you guys who don't think worse calls, I think a ton of worse hands call. Any AsXx, even QsTx type hands. Against a set you're not in that bad of shape, against AsX you're flipping, against QsTx/JxTx hands you're 4:1 fav, just get ai.

Raise more preflop. At least $30

Jam now.

I guess if we think he folds AsXo then jamming is good. Otherwise we're not doing very well against a range of [AsTo,ATo, , AsXo].


I'm not sure there are that many Tx hands there. But we don't want any of them to fold.

Here was my thought process, based on playing history:

Flopped flush was ruled out, as he would have checked the flop.
Three of a kind ruled out, as he typically raises with just about any pair, in or out of position.
Two pair was possible, although unlikely, given the board texture.
Over pair, JJ or QQ, totally out, no pre-flop raise as it would have all gotten in pre-flop.
I had to put him AsXx or 10x Xx.

As a result, I decided to jam the stacks, only being worried about the As and wanted him off a weak draw. I figured it would be better to take down the pot there, then letting him catch up.

After about 2 minutes, he stated, "I'm in the mood to gamble", which I knew meant he had the As.

Flop was a brick, turn was the 4s. He turned over As 8h for the rivered nut flush.

This leads me to the question:

Did I bet enough pre-flop - Answer is no, although he may have called up to a $30 bet.

Should I have called flop bet, rather than jamming? If I do this, does this leave me open or can he find a fold if fires out a continuation bet and I jam?

Could I even get him off this hand once the flop hits, regardless of the turn?

Regardless of the outcome, do most players find a fold here or make that call at this level holding the Suited ace on a draw. I trusted my read, but am I overestimating the ability to fold that or should I take a more conservative line in the future.

Jamming was right, the list of thoughts was dead on, you got what you wanted.

You don't want to get him off his hand.

You ended up losing, it happens lol, don't think you played it sucky just because you lost.

Assuming a similar situation, against average 1/2 or 2/5 players, what percentage of players would you guess fold to the jam holding the nut spade draw?

Just trying to get a feeling here for future reference. I would assume about an 80% fold rate there, as a guess. Thoughts?

1/2 players will fold As because it's "a lot" of money and they don't like going broke on a risk.

2/5 players will almost never fold.

That being said, it's still a snap shove. For many reasons. For one, if you don't shove this, you can forget about shoving AsQx as a bluff.

You are almost NEVER folding here on the Flop. Even with a flopped flush it should be one less than Ks to bet this way so you have outs and as you very clearly indicated, you crush his range.

More PF .. yes but not much more, especially from button as it looks 'iffy'. You want these types of calls. You just need to find out the max you can bump it to in case the action falls apart on the Flop and still get yourself a decent pot that is limited to 1 or 2 opponents.

As I indicated in my previous post, you need to make a choice as to gamble or not in these spots ... but more importantly when to gamble. Jamming the Flop in this case was the right thing to do with this opponent as you want this call (and got it, yeah!!) ... you just didn't want the outcome!!

If you werent ready to commit your stack, then flat and jam the Turn when there is only one card to come. This is your best place 'not' to gamble since it gives the least attractive view of the hand to this player even if he leads out on a blank Turn.

You cant have it both ways ... you arent going to 'safely' get his stack on River unless he hits, but then you lose because he hits!!

You are NEVER folding this Flop to this opponent. You are ahead or can pass too much of his range.
You are RARELY folding any Turn unless spade and you have a good read (you did!!).
You should jam Turn to take contorl of the hand for least amount of risk IMO.
If opponent leads out large on blank Turn, jam anyway as you should have committed yourself when you flatted the Flop (against this opponent).

You will get no additional value on River if he misses, so determine how much you want to risk and apply that amount to Flop and Turn action. The stickiest spot of the whole hand wouldve been facing a River jam after 2 blanks hit board ... now you have to consider full range of hands 2pr/set/flush to Hero call that bet.

1) Flat Flop ... jam Turn regardless of action
1a) Flat Flop ... check through Turn if you want limited risk of your chips and realize you will get no value on blank River.
2) Jam Flop and risk losing value to As and only being called by better
3) Flat Flop ... Flat Turn and face tough decision on River once all cards are out if he decides to bluff/has you beat anyway.

Can you get him (or others) out of the hand on Turn, yes .. but only if he checks and you jam. If he leads and you jam he will feel inclined to call with that much 'invested' even though the odds got much worse!!

Do most players gamble like this with As? Not on Turn, some on Flop ... but you want the call if they are willing to put in the chips, just not this result. GL

Definitely call when deep here. Call >>>> jam he might fold his semi bluffs and put you on a decent range, where he is probably capable of semibluffing more than just one street here if
a brick falls ott. Call all the way through and evaluate if a spade comes

You're 65bb deep. Not deep at all.

I really dont see a reason to jam flop unless villian is the type to stack off with top pair on a monotone board. What cards are you afraid of? Id just call the flop in position.

Try 160. Or are you saying that because of the 1/2/5