Ffs, don't listen to the nits above. This is a clear 3bet AINEC. Folding pre here vs all but the tightest of ranges is giving up a boatload of value.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NittyOldMan1
obv not 100% sure but lets just guess
88+
ATo+
A9s+
KTs+
KQo
QJs
what sort of equity should be we looking for OOP here before considering 3 betting? i assume we never coldcall unless we have pairs.
We need to call 19 into a $47 pot which means we need ~40% raw equity. I usually add a 20% equity penalty for being oop, which means we need a non-raw (cooked?) equity of around 50%, which basically means we should only call a ridiculously tight JJ+,AQ+ vs the range you've given him.
However, if we assume reasonable preflop FE, perceived range advantage and the ability to cbet on favorable boards postflop, and just better equity realisation in general as the preflop 3bettor, this spot becomes immensely +EV. Let's say he continues to our 3bet with JJ+,AQ+. Now look at the range you gave him, what % of combo's is he folding pre? 60%? 70% maybe even?
Obviously i'm making a bunch of assumptions here and vs a relative unknown there's gonna be a lot of variance, but vs the overall population you will be printing money by 3betting here, even vs a somewhat tight villain.
Fwiw i don't think i have a flatting range at this stack depth, not even with pairs, cause the setmining odds are barely there, but i'm 3betting a bunch, probably 99+,AJo+,A5s+,JTs+.
Heck, that might even be to tight, given we can add 9% to our stack just by getting folds here, our hand has good playability and good blockers, V can't setmine profitably at this stackdepth and he's gonna end up with a fairly well defined range that will have to fold on a large number of flops.
TL;DR: Folding this pre is a leak vs almost any range, and it's probably not a small leak either.