You're absolutely right and I appreciate the comment. I'll look into making modification to my previous post.

Goal of my post wasn't to win an argument, it is meant to lead a more math based discussion.

Ps. why don't you show some work then?

This is a good point and a great example of the concept. However im Pretty sure nobody in this player pool is as good as SABR, I would be very surprised to see any of these players bombing turn for pot with bottom pair in this spot.

Exactly - apple and orange.

Go back and read the OP. Hero has admitted that the villain is at worst just as good as he is and mostly likely a better player. So we aren't going to texture read, villain read and hand read better that the original raiser. We're still oop. How do we win this hand other than out flopping the villain?

And kudos to APD for saying, "you know what, this villain is tough for me to play."

This is all true. The SABR HH is a whole different hand, IMO. I would have folded the KQ to a 3bet in the SABR hand. I would of for sure folded the KQ in my hand if V2 3bet pre. Anyways, yeah.

I did some quick figuring in excel (am in office now typing on this crappy phone) and I got an ev of about +20 which is in line with what RU showed but you'll just have to take my word for it for now until I can get to a device without a pos keyboard.

If your line is +35 then it could be better, but I will need to look into it some more.

I would say fundamentally I have an edge on him. He has me on the being aggressive side of things, although I will say this, he has owned me in huge pots coming from behind many many times. Could be a sample size thing. I think he is a tad spewy (too loose and stationy at times), but is definitely one of the better players. He will put pressure on people with semi-bluffs in spots most of the player pool won't. That's what makes him tough.

FWIW, Garick and I talked through PM about this one because he also has history against this guy and he confirmed any feelings I've had about the V and the hand.

Share?

Garick kind of grunched it and we shot some BS back and forth. It wasn't huge detail but more like, "hey, what do you think...," "yeah looks fine..." kind of a thing. If he wants to post here with his thoughts he can, but I doubt he will because he is on break. I think one thing of importance that he said is meant to stay in PM, so that is where I will keep it. The way it's worded he may not want people to take it the wrong way, and I don't want to put him in an awkward spot. I'll shoot him a PM and tell him his presence is requested.


edit: I asked Garick if I can share his PM's. Will let you know soon.

Cool man! Good call on the diplomacy / private conversation stuff. Makes sense.

Wow very informative thread. And im only on post 60 or so.

Why aren't we donking this turn?

*grunching, can't wait to read what could possibly be worth 8 pages of discussion*

I like the whole hand as played and river seems like a simple check/call to me. In a nutshell, I'm fine with seeing a cheapish flop with this hand, even though we're likely to only go 3way/4way to the flop and be OOP (I'd rather not 3bet preflop cuz being OOP in big pots to good players sucks more than just flatting and keeping the pot small, imo). Flop seems obvious; he could easily be betting any two cards here and it's unlikely he'll call a raise with worse (unless he figures on getting fancy and then attempting to steal a big pot on later streets, which he could successfully). Turn also seems obvious, especially on a fairly dry board. Which leaves us with the river, and this is the perfect scare card for him to bluff with (or even bluff/raise with, although we still would hate calling a raise and he might just fold his air to a donk bet), so let's check and let him bluff away.

Gcrushinglivepokerbybecomingacallingstation,justli keallthepokerbooksrecommendG

What hands do you think villain has in his range that he now needs to bluff?

I guess KT, KJ and JT would make sense.

And those all turned straight draws and would be consistent with a turn check behind on this board (where we're likely to have top pair and not fold to a double barrel).

That's 40 combos of possible bluffs.

I guess river could be c/c depending on villain bet sizing when we check.

from Garick:

PM1: I'm still on a break, but I'll grunch in PM. I prefer more callers before I play KQs OOP. Depends on game flow and images, but I can make a case for flat, 3b, and fold. If game is no FE, I prefer one more caller before I flat, but I prob go ahead and do so with just one given dynamics. No callers I fold for sure, and if there's any indication of FE I prefer a 3-bet with just one.

Post flop I play it the same and c/f river. I don't think **** will bluff an ace, and I see no reason to turn our hand into a bluff when we have some decent SDV and never expect him to fold Ax.

PM2: What are people saying? (aside from the obv "3-bet and collect dead money" from people who don't understand lack of FE.) He didn't even have to read the thread to know... lol

My response to PM2: People are saying 3bet and collect dead money and that my flatting is pretty bad. Everyone wants to take initiative in the hand, and I tried telling them there really is no initiative in this spot. All I'm doing by 3betting is blowing up the pot OOP. It's nice when you hit a flop, but when you whiff you are pretty much c/f'ing a huge portion of the time against these guys.

PM3: Yeah, I'll c-bet air against someone with a fold button, but I've learned that I'm turning my SDV into a bluff by c-betting A-high against a lot of these guys. If I don't has an ace, I'll still usually c-bet, but I'm rarely barreling anymore.

Response to my request for PM: Go ahead. Just let folks know I'm still on strat hiatus, so I'm not going to engage in the debate, unless it's still going next week.

Call pre. Don't fold, WTF.

River is a clear check.

After that it could potentially go 3 ways. I've checked raised spots like this.

But but...never mind.

Oh boy, this just made it interesting. FWIW, I believe SABR was one of the people where I 3bet KQs IP a long time ago and he told me to call pre because our hand has a good amount of equity and plays well. I seriously was thinking about that when I made the call in this hand.

No you weren't. You were thinking about how you could flop nuts and SABR check.

Fyp

3betting pre is very bad... folding pre is just wut?

river is an obvious check.

Wish I could edit my original post, but a couple things I didn't realize...

1) Didn't realize this was 1/2. I'm really not sure if there's a big difference between typical 1/3 NL betsizing and 1/2 NL betsizing or what (which is why I don't even respond to 1/2 NL threads any more), but I read a $10 open in 1/3 NL game as slightly better than ATC.

2) I didn't realize Villain opened UTG (for some reason I thought he was CO), so I figured his range could be even wider.

GwholehandisprobablynotasobviousasIthoughtitwasG

5x in this game is just as wide as 3x, maybe a smidge tighter, but not much.

His CO range is definitely wider, but it doesn't mean his UTG range is nit tight or anything.


One thing I'd like to say... Am I the only one in the entire poker universe that thinks that some hands are perfectly fine to play just for the chance to hit a flop (because your hand has good equity or you have decent odds to call, not ATC for the hell of it) and stroke some chips? And when you whiff... You fold... and when you are OOP or dude is playing back a little you don't take the most aggro line with non-nutted hands. I mean, not every damn hand can be I am going to outplay this guy because I haz position! Not every hand can be IMA ram and jam this mofo until he folds. Maybe I think like this because of the games I play in, where card/board advantage is just as, if not more, important than position or one's "outplay you skill."

Just a random thought from someone who plays in some of the spewiest home games.

I spent all night check folding whiffed flops in your spewy home game APD. Nothing wrong with it imo

i have been known to call with pocket pairs preflop hoping to hit the same number card otf and then fold if i do not hit that same number card.

Lol, you just described my whole poker strategy in a nutshell.

GhasjustrealizedI'veusedtheword"nutshell"intwoofmy threepostsinthisthreadG