NL 1/2 Majestic Star
Hero is getting clobbered. He's in for $400 on second buy in with about 185 in front before the hand. I know only half the table. Villain 1 is a 70 yo white woman with heavy skin/smoking damage. In town for the weekend? Never seen her before. Hero has been there for 2 hours. She's been in for a rotation or so. She's played 5 hands out of 10, won 3 without showdown. She has $200.
Villain 2, 50 yo Asian male. He's played 60% of pots and running good. He bought in for 50 and now has 270 or so. His game is to bet whenever it is checked to him.
Hero has KQ in the Small blind.
Villain 2 is UTG and raises to 7. My standard raises are 12 to 15 most days. At this table I lowered it to 11 though. A lot of "make it 5" and "seven" going on.
MP calls, Hero Calls, and Villain 1 in BB calls.
Pot 28
Flop K73
Hero donk bets for $17. Why? I didn't want it to check around with the two spades. Was I wrong? Make it 20 instead?
Villain 1 in BB calls.
UTG folds and MP folds
Pot 66
Turn Q
A very precarious card. Hero bets 35, old lady reraises all in? Easy fold? Stack to pot call? I got 4 outs I believe if she already has the flush.

Having both the KQ for top two pairs means V is less likely to have either of those two cards. Two pair shouldn't be jamming here.
My thoughts are that V only has a flush here...nothing else.
Trips would have raised the flop.
I would fold.

Without knowing anything more about villain this is a painful situation but it's hard for villain to have a worse 2 pair on this board so folding is generally correct. Villain looks loose and aggro but 10 hands isn't enough to really profile villain.

Preflop is fine, flop donk is OK. I would check more then donk but the donk isn't bad.

Chicago,

This is a rare case where I’d fold top two on the turn.

There are some aggros where this is a snap call, but unless you know that, this is a fold.

They are most likely NOT both FOS.

We are behind.

Yeah, I should have folded I guess. Old lady turns over As and 8clubs! Did she think she had a flush and misread her hand? I don't know. I had her 72 to 27 according to the simulator.
I said, "That's not a flush." No one said anything.
River 9s
Then the table said, "now it's a flush." I felt stupid. Got on the phone, did the math I was way ahead, but I did not have a good read on her but she's pretty aggro i found out. I prejudge older people but sometimes they're big gamblers contrary to what I think.

You guys are right though. I should have folded.

Chicago,

Why did you feel stupid? You should feel like a genius for owning her with that call. So what the river made her hand, **** happens, it’s poker.

Great attitude man i appreciate that. You're 100% right. Thanks

GRUNCH

I am calling here. There is no reason for a flush to jam as opposed to flatting. I would expect something like AsX, 65 with a spade, 54 with a spade, etc.

She might have a baby flush and is worried about a fourth spade but even with baby flushes people usually would flat here.

Old and white, super tight, young and black, bluffs his stack...

I'm folding turn.

Shai,


65/54 type hands with a single spade are terrible hands to expect to see in this spot in low limit games.

Vs a woman VPIPing 50% who is apparently quite aggressive? Seems plausible. Regardless I expect mostly one card NFDs.

There are a lot more 1 card NFDs than flushes, particularly small flushes, which are the only flushes it makes sense to shove here.

It's rare where I play for me not to know this many people. About 3 orbits later i had a much better read on her: CALL! She's old and white but what a DEGEN sight!

I try to be careful stereotyping women of any age or race. They supposedly tend towards LP but I've seen plenty of aggressive women even older ones. Going by appearance and behavior is more useful.

What would make me call here is she's most likely either

A) LP player who shoves a turn no LP player would shove except with a handful of baby flushes.

B) An action junkie capable of shoving all kinds of hands but probably slowplays NUT hands

Either way I think she almost never has a big flush. And with the number of hands she's won so far without showdown, she is clearly not shy of betting. Most LPs only bet heavily with nut hands, and that's when they decide not to slowplay. So she's either an LP who's made three (now four) very strong hands in one orbit, or she's an action junkie.

The latter is statistically more likely. She's also a heavy smoker, which tells us she's not a generally cautious person. This may or may not translate to how she plays poker but I'm generally assuming heavy smokers and drinkers are relatively bluffy. So in a close looking spot like this I think we have enough info to call.

Pretty sure Janda would recommend a 3 bet pre-flop in the SB in your situation.

As played you posted in part:

"He's played 60% of pots and running good. He bought in for 50 and now has 270 or so. His game is to bet whenever it is checked to him."

Seems like checking the flop going for a check raise would have been a better play. Of course everything unfolded ideally for you in that you got a lot of money in the center as a heavy favorite . Just my $0.02.

It's called a donk bet for a reason. Just let it check through if it comes to that, and hope there isn't a spade, you haven't invested anything into this pot. If there's no spade on the turn bet for value. If V2 c bets I would c/r the flop based on his description and the fact that I'm going to want to c/r bluff him a fair amount especially given your position, but c/c is ok as well.

Man, it's like every time a flush draw is on the board people get scared of the flush hitting and want to bet when they've invested an insignificant amount of money into a pot. You've put in $7, if it checks through and the spade comes just check/fold to a bet, if not you bet for value, easy game.

As played I would call, she seems aggro, and based on the fact that you kind of don't want the A of spades in your hand, this is one of the few hands in your range that have equity vs a flush while not blocking reasonable bluffs.

Grunch

Preflop if V2 has been making it 7 with and regularity from EP, or if he has been making in 7 sometimes, and 15-20 other times, I just 3bet to 30/35 pre.

AP I'd c/c flop.
AP if she's only been at the table for a rotation and won 3 without showdown then she's being pretty agro so I'd just shrug and call.

3! with KQ seems to be beyond me but I think you're right. I feel better about 3! with the Ed Miller suited ace than KQ. I'm pretty remedial though i'm afraid.

I'm also pretty remedial (either that or I've just always run bad) but I hate playing fit or fold multiway OOP with a decent hand. Just need to get better postflop so I can avoid barreling my stack of OOP with a decent hand....

I recommend reading the section titled "Understanding Small Blind Play" in his book. If the raise came from the button for sure 3 bet. UTG it is often better to 3 bet than call according to his book.

Very interesting book.

To be fair Janda's ranges are designed against optimal opponents opening much wider, for fewer BB, and more capable of raise/folding, than is typical in a 1/2 game. I don't think I'm ever 3-betting KQ in a 1/2 game...