Home game, 1/2 blinds, unraked, online app...100 buy in but can get crazy with people in for 1500+. Very passive preflop generally, with most pots limped multiway. Effective stacks here are 160.

My friend, who is way too passive, predictable and tight, raises to 10 UTG with KK...villain in cutoff who is also tight when big money goes in, but the luckiest player I've ever played with too. He's calling with a pretty wide range here...any pair, some suited two gapers, broadway cards etc....He calls along with BB.

Flop: 259, two spades. My friend has no spades.

Check, friend bets 25 into a 30 pot. Luckbox quickly calls, BB folds.

I was railbirding this hand, and sirens went off here...most likely hand is a set for villain. Could have a spade draw, but probably would take longer to call...despite his transparent play, other players pay him off and tangle with him all the time. He loves slowplaying...which is easy as he always seems to hit the nuts!

Turn: 10 Offsuit.

What should my friend do? He has 130 behind. But he's such a predictable player that everyone knows he has an overpair here.

Hero had $165 to begin with. Raising to $10 UTG was the major mistake in the hand, that is just setting himself up for set mining. Either pop it to $20 preflop to punish callers or go something smaller to give room for bet/fold post flop.

As played it depends on how wide luckbox calls flop and how wide he calls a bet. If he is the sort who calls flop and turn with any draw/any pair and then gives up river without a good hand then bet again and check/evaluate on river. If he has tighter calling ranges post flop then checking is fine.

Ah, how to play KK against a luckbox. When a luckbox calls, the best you can hope for is to save some money by check/folding. So especially with a hand like KK that never wins against a luckbox, check/fold flop, check/fold turn, check/fold river. Skill only gets you so far; there is no competing against a luckbox. And yes, obviously when a luckbox calls preflop with a “pretty wide range” and then calls $25 into $30 on a 259 two-tone board, he has a set. Most likely top set, but it could be one of the other sets, especially because hero has KK and did not flop a set. It was clearly a mistake betting that flop with an overpair into a luckbox that always flops sets and then slow plays them, but now that hero did, only option is to check/fold turn.

However; if villain is actually just a human with two cards like the rest of the player pool, I’d most likely just shove the $130 on the turn. It’s a slight overbet, but stacks are somewhat awkward and you don’t want to just give away a ton of implied odds on a small turn bet.

I hope you realize that even if he's gotten lucky in his last eleventy squillion hands, he has the same chance of hitting his draw or whatever against your friend as anyone else does?

There's 80 in the pot. A bet of 60 or so (err on the high side) would price out a draw, but with 70 left after that, your friend would be pot-committed and would have to pay off a made/drawn out hand on the river anyway. So I say, shove the torpedoes.

If he had position, this would be much easier, as he could see what V does before acting. In fact, in that spot, if V checked, there would be an argument for checking behind (pot control in a situation with awkward stack sizes).

Turn is most standard shove ever vs wide-ranging villain.

jam turn.

also there's no such thing as a luckbox. Thats just confirmation bias. I had the rare occasion to sit next to a luckbox reg who divulged their YTD earnings once, not sure why he did it but apparently he actually tracks his results. He was down 50k at 2/5 in 8 months. I dont think I even knew his name but I'd see him with 2-3k stacks "all the time". The reality is his big stacks would catch my attention and thats all I would remember, never really sticking around long enough to see him dump it all. The luckier someone seems to you the bigger a loser they probably are.

One of the best NLHE players of all time Bobby Baldwin pointed out that the reason bad players suck out far more often than good players is that good players generally get their money in ahead. Bad players have far more opportunities to suck out, not that they are "better" at it.

I almost never disagree with QuadJ, but 10 is fine pf. Nor do I want to stack off with just a pair on the turn unless I have a read that he'll call the shove with any pair, any draw. If you think he's a lockbox, it is possible he thinks the same thing. So a shove could be the right play. Don't know without a better read.

Thanks everyone...my friend shoved 130 on the turn...villain snapped with a set of deuces.

I also mentioned the 10 preflop needed to be bigger...but my friend then mentioned a previous hand when he had AA, raised to 10 and everyone folded. Problem is my friends raising range is too narrow.

I only watched for 20 more minutes, but watched him stack someone with J9 when he hit a gutshot on the turn (other player decide to CR turn allin with middle pair!), and another hand in Omaha8 with quad Kings which got a bunch of players to call along with wheel/low/flush draws.