1/3, about 300 eff.

Villain in hand is a not very good but tight and not terrible young guy. We know each other a little, he knows I play tight and solid, or at least has some idea.

He raises UTG to 10. His preflop raising range is quite tight, so his UTG range should be even tighter. He mostly limp calls and is pretty passive; post-flop he's usually trying to GII with the nuts or otherwise folds, maybe calling with some medium strength hands or draws.

Folds to me in MP with KK, I raise to 40. Folds around to V who calls.

Flop (80): TT6r

He checks, I bet 40, he quickly calls.

Turn (160): 3ss

He checks, I bet 90, he thinks for about 20 seconds and goes all in for 200.


So, I'm not super happy here, but I still think I have to call, it's an easy call getting 4:1. Anyone disagree?

My real question is whether I should consider checking back this turn and then either calling or better river when checked to. When I bet I'm basically hoping to GII vs JJ or QQ... I don't know if he x/shoves these hands on the turn or just x/calls or even folds (I really doubt it!), maybe he realizes it's basically the same thing (calling vs. shoving) since he's commited, but mayyyybe not.

If he happens to have AA or Tx, then checking turn and just calling river will save me money — he should be 4! AA though at least 50% of the time I would guess. And shouldn't be too many T's either in his UTG raising or calling the 3! range. 66 is possible as well.

So idk, thoughts on the turn decision(s)? I think it's kind of meh either way, but am still leaning towards betting and getting it in.

It seems his range is JJ, QQ, or maybe AA? I think you are correct thinking he is thinking calling vs shoving the turn is pretty close to the same thing. You want to get all the money in so I think you need to bet the turn. It is harder to get it all if he checks the river to you.

As played, I would call.

You absolutely have to call on the turn - you're pot committed and you're certainly ahead of most the hands he could have. Villain certainly could have qq or jj denying your equity if you happen to have AK and he doesn't want you to draw out on him. He could also have turned a flush draw with AQ or AK. Given that he's "quite tight" and "his utg range should be even tighter", you should happily be able to get it in postflop since he should never have any 10x hands in his range. You're near the top of your range - the only better hand you could have here is aces (I don't think you play any 10x or 1010 hand this way preflop). He so rarely has AA and if he does, just chalk it up to a cooler. There are more hands that you can get value from than hands that you lose to. Checking back turn isn't a good idea because if he has a hand like jj or qq and and over card comes on the river, you're very unlikely going to be able to get any more value out of him. If he ended up calling 10x out of position to a 4x 3bet, I would re-evaluate your read that he's "tight"

Only if he'll do this with AA would you fold to the raise. I think checking the turn is better, not because you could get raised, but because he's likely to fold on the turn with worse than you have. He's more likely to call a river bet.

Our preflop raise offered him 10:1 IO, so pretty good result for us. I probably offer a smidge worse by raising a bit more since we most likely won't be able to fold postflop on non-A boards.

SPR is just over 3. So we have a couple of options to play for stacks. We could bet small on each street (like no more than ~1/2 PSB). Or we could bet big on one street, then check a street for deception, then get the rest in on the river. The former is probably easiest and easily gets us committed before we start worrying about gross cards (whereas in the latter we might end up outplaying ourselves by the river for fear he hit a better hand). But this guy doesn't seem completely ******ed either; is he really going to pay off with QQ/JJ to a preflop 3better to 3 postflop streets of betting? Perhaps to weak bets he might accidentally get committed by the river? For example, if he does have a hand like QQ, he *might* manage a fold to that third bet of bet/bet/bet, but if we bet big on the flop and then check the turn I doubt he's folding to a river bet (where it looks like we are bluffing with busted AK).

Anyhoo, looks like we're taking the 3 street betting route, and I like our sizing as these ~1/2 PSBs will leave us an easy river shove.

Honestly, kinda a gross spot. He could easily be tanking with QQ/JJ knowing that if he calls the $90 that he's committed for the rest of it, so might as well get it in now before our AK hits. But overall, we're probably behind here a lot vs a non ****** who doesn't think we're ******ed. But I also don't think we can fold.

Gsighcalling,imoG