Quote:
Originally Posted by srbrain
Alex, does the player checking his bb out of turn affect your decision? Do you range him any different because of this? The combo of the bb checking out of turn and then raising on this board which was as a poster said is "the Sahara of dry boards" - really confused me. It seemed like an unlikely time to make a move on me.
Also, do you think my flop bet of $25 looks like a weak C-bet to V if he views me as a donk? Would you consider this as a factor in deciding if he is "donk pushing". Or, is V more likely to push if I bet big and my hand is even more defined. Thanks
When he checks the bb out of turn we can immediately cut the top premiums out of his range. Whether or not that includes 99 depends on player tendencies, but most good players raise 99+ from the bb when there are 2 or less limpers.
Obv that means his range also includes 93 92 32 27 and all this other garbage, but when he calls your raise preflop we can cut most of the bottom of an ATC range out of his calling range, which means we are extremely unlikely to be up against two pair here.
Hes either got a set of 33 a set of 22, or its a bluff/semibluff. And im heavily leaning to it being a bluff/semibluff. The flop bet of $25 is ok since the pot should be $40-$45 depending on rake. However the question is does wj view the cbet as being small? Since most twoplustwoers would bet $40+ with an overpair here, since that is the prevailing advice (bet big when strong and small when bluffing) (which btw is bad against good players) its quite possible he's discounted overpairs from your range and is making a move.
So to answer your last question, i think villians are far more likely to make a move when they percieve your sizing as small.
Now when he continues on the turn hes likely picked up additional equity. Its up to you whether you want to shove now to protect your hand or if you think he'll continue bluffing brick rivers. And that depends on dynamics and stack sizes.
If he has a set here and you lose, chalk it up as a cooler. There's no way you can fold the top of your range here on this texture. Folding here is massively exploitable and basically means you only stack off with sets, which is too nitty.
Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 03-30-2014 at 05:37 PM.