Quote:
Originally Posted by tmo1120
I am way ahead of JX, FD's , and AX ; he'll have like 33% equity at best with those hands, I feel like he may fold his JX in a 3! pot to a bet on the flop, this was a tough bc it was so early in session, usually i have a plan how to play vs each player at the table after the first 20 mins, I took the cautious route here vs his UTG range,
what hands would call me on the flop if i bet close to pot size that i can beat?
I felt like the best way to get value here would be to under rep my hand a bit
I would definitely not consider 33% equity way ahead; and that's just a small FD. Nut flush draw has even higher equity. SD plus FD is a coin flip. I don't think giving a free card OTF is the right way to go here.
What hands call you if you bet 2/3 to 3/4 PSB on the flop? Jx most likely would call once especially if it has a backdoor draw; straight draws and flush draws both would likely call too. Yes you have KK which blocks SDs, and some completed straights make you a FH, but from the position of your opponent, why would he fold KTs or T9s or ATss or any number of possible draws to a single flop bet? You expecting that is unrealistic; you're only losing to Qx and to that you are way behind, but by checking the flop you're allowing some 30 - 40% equity hands to overtake you for free, and potentially losing value from them if the turn bricks because the draws weaken.
Paired boards miss everyone more. It's very possible someone floats with very weak hands just to try to rep a Q because 2 Qs on board make it less likely you have one.
I suspect your line is a bit of MUBS thinking "he might have a Q." Yes he might, and you might be WB, but you are much more often slightly ahead than way ahead; he is much more likely to have a hand strong enough for you to get value from immediately and strong enough to overtake you easily.
Last edited by GuitarDean; 01-03-2019 at 04:30 PM.