2/5
effective stacks 500.
9 handed.
The villain in this hand is a good thinking LAG. He has been 3betting frequently preflop and raisng c-bets.

UTG fish limps. UTG+2 fish limps.
Hero HJ with KKdh raise to 30.
BUT LAG calls. UTG+2 calls.

3 ways to flop.
(102) Flop T55ssc.
UTG+2 checks. Hero bets 50. Lag raises to 140. UTG+2 folds. Hero jams All In for 470.


This hand is bothering me because it feels like an impossible spot, hopefully I'm overlooking something. When villain raises the flop here I think his range is: flush draws, 5s, and air. Vs this range shoving seems strange because we will only get called by the 5s. But if we just call our hand looks super strong, and I don't think villain will continue to bluff on the turn (unless he hits a flush). If we jam here then we can make our hand look like a flush draw, and maybe get hero'd by something? (Although his range I'm not sure what he can hero us with here). It just really sucks to be out of position.

Any thoughts appreciated!

Looks good to me.

Also, I assume villain should be calling your shove with flush draws that he raised; he’s getting like 2.1 to 1.

This is a class of question that comes up sometimes on the forum that amounts to "I am a nit, how do I get value for this crushing hand I have?". An extreme example would be asking how an OMC can get value out of his AA against a good player. It just can't be done, the correct answer is that the OMC needs to open up his range in all spots and then value for the AA will take care of itself.

I'm not necessarily accusing you of being a nit in general, but if you say that the LAG is going to fold everything except 5s to a shove and shut down if you flat, then the LAG is assuming that you will have an overpair when you play back at him. You need to make that a bad assumption. It's possible that the LAG is raising a balanced range and there's nothing you can do, but more likely he's raising too much and you need to punish him for it by pushing him off his hand. Value hands against this type of player often don't represent a chance to get value, they're just backup for the main way you win against the LAG, which is meet their aggression with aggression. Trapping with value hands is how you beat maniacs, not good LAGs.

The only thing I would say here is make it 40 preflop in a 2/5 game with that table. Well played otherwise.

To elaborate a bit on my post: to beat players we need to figure out what mistake they're making. In this instance, maybe the LAG isn't making a mistake with the raise and has his ranges perfect; in that case, there's nothing to be done. Typically though with a LAG, the mistake is exactly this raise right here. It's not GENERALLY being overaggressive and spewing chips; that's a maniac, they're easy to beat. It's this raise here which is awkward to face because we are OOP and the LAG's range is wide. The LAG counts on the fact that when you call or shove, you define your range quite tightly. You need to make that not true, turn the tables on the LAG by having a wide shove range. Another way to look at it is that by raising, the LAG is asserting a range advantage against you on this flop. You need to answer "bull****". It's the same preflop against LAGs, the best weapon against a LAG 3bet is 4betting with a wide range. The reason LAG strategies are so effective in many games is that effectively meeting the strategy necessarily involves riding the variance train, which a lot of players on the nitty side are reluctant to do.

THIS^

DO YOU WANT HIM TO CALL OR FOLD ?
if your happy with call; check/ folding to a flush card on turn then call
and ship if flush misses
if you want him to call with 2 cards to a flush draw ship it
a 5 is going to the river with you no matter what you do.

Great post with a lot of insight. However, I will ask a different Q and welcome answers that tell me why I am wrong. Assuming we can balance our checking range here on a flop like this OOP, is there any merit to checking this flop vs LAGs with the idea that we c/c one street with everything and then c/re-eval on the turn and/or river with some of our range? Would this even be considered a lower variance way to "attack" the LAG's tendencies or do we give up too much value when the LAG has the FD and misses both turn and river and doesn't bluff enough?

My main point is this: playing top pair/overpair hands OOP vs pretty much anyone are a lot of the "tough spots" that we talk about (especially 100-150 blinds deep) and finding an effective way to play them that maybe isn't quite as high variance as reacting with a shove a lot of the time seems to make sense to me. BUT, I welcome getting flamed if I am missing something important.

Thanks,

Shorn

Good stuff, Chris!

You said he has been "raising c-bets" which kinda sounds like he is trying to steal in some spots but have you seen any of those hands shown down?

What is your own image? Have you been card dead, losing, folding to aggression? All of those factors will affect how likely V is to make to a play on you if he is paying attention (sounds like he is). Depending on your own image V might still call a shove with two-pair. You don't block the Ks which is actually good news for giving him more flush draw combos


Two spades with no overcards are about 31-33% against an overpair here, so it is close to breakeven for V to call but he might inflate his odds if he doesn't properly account for the equity lost due to the paired board. If he has spades with one or more overcard to the board he should definitely be calling.

I agree with you the spot isn't awesome but I think there are enough calling spades and money in the pot to just ship it now. The other option, as was mentioned, is to just call now and ship any non-spade turn. But what happens then? Now most spades are definitely not calling and all the same 5s we were worried about in the flop are still snapping while being way farther ahead of us. Calling the flop raise and check-folding spade turns just allows V to steal it or get a free look at the river to catch up.

If stacks were deeper there might be more reason for pot control on the flop, but once he raises a call nearly commits you anyway, may as well ship it and give V a chance to make a bad / neutral call. If he has air you're not getting any more out of him, unless you are planning to check-call all spade turns and catch bluffs but I doubt if his air range outweighs his 5x and spades so that seems out too.

I kinda wanna keep his bluffs in. You are high up in your range and I don’t want to let him off the hook too easily.

I probably call and x/call or x/jam regardless of what the turn is.

Yes but it won't be any easier or lower variance. To put pressure on the LAG you will have to bet turn some of the time, including when the spades hit even if you don't have spades. Otherwise your hand becomes to readable again. Unless you are in some meta game bluffing war you called the flop raise with something. If it was spades you would usually lead if you hit the turn, if it's something else it's likely an over pair or a good TX.

Against bad LAG who will bluff too often a check/call line can be good. But it's a good line against them exactly because you don't need to evaluate a lot. They are bluffing too often so you can just call down most of the time and only give up on particularly bad boards.

If you call, the pot is like 380 and there’s like 330 left in stacks. You check turn and he checks back with all his flush draws (or maybe just naked flush draws and maybe still shoves some with combo draws or overcards).

But I think with that stack to pot ratio, it wouldn’t normally be expected that someone who just called a flop raise will now fold the turn a ton, so I think there is a good chance he checks back a lot of flush draws he may have if they miss turn.

There’s a big difference between calling a less than 3x raise for $90 more and calling off a 330/380 jam.

I really wouldn’t expect the described villain to x back the turn, especially if an overcard hits the board.

Is there a single thing in your range you flat with that isn't a strong top pair or better? It's very range-defining imo. I feel like flatting does let him off the hook, it's basically "hi there, I have a strong top pair or better, if you can beat that feel free to keep betting, otherwise here's two free cards".

Definitely don't mind throwing in a check with this hand now and then. There are other hands where you're going to have the same problem though (like JJ) where your hand is more fragile and you don't really want to put it through a check line. Basically you should be aiming to check enough strong hands that checking doesn't automatically mean you have nothing.

You don't beat a LAG by giving him easy decisions to make. I would have checked the flop and let him try to push me off the hand. The odds of him having a FD is low in this situation. Let him start to worry about whether you have the nuts, the nut FD, OP or are just playing back at him.

As played, he can just decide whether he has pot odds or is beating you to call or just fold his junk.

How about 88/99 or JTs+, or even a draw?

If he’s x back turns then we get to see two cards for $90 more and should be calling with all of our flush draws.

When I first read the hand it seemed fine to me, but thinking better, you will most likely only get a street of value from a 10 from the reg, and by checking you induce him to take a stab, no worries about anyone turning or rivering second pair because you already have 2 pair, it sucks to check and see an ace land on the turn but I'd probably go on check/call, further streets would depend if fish stays on the pot and if overs come to the board, but prolly never giving him credit for the 5.

I would hate to fold him out otf especially since he habitually raises cbets. hes basically putting you to the test to see if you have a hand or not, and also trying to bluff telling you he possibly has a 5. I would call then get the money in ott rather than telling him you're at the top of your range and let him off the hook easy.