1/3, 400 eff., I have a tight winning image, haven't yet shown down a hand.

Villain is middle aged middle eastern guy, plays way too loose pre-flop, a bit sticky, but has twice folded to my barrell after I raised pre and continued. He's not super passive or super aggressive, kind of a typical sort of fish, if I can say it.

I'm UTG with KK and raise to 16. 1 caller, villain calls on BTN.

FLOP (50) 834r

I bet 32, fold, villain calls.

TURN (110): 7o

I bet 40, villain snaps. (Too small a bet maybe? Looking to get value from an 8, villain has shown that he'll fold to decent sized turn bets. Also just don't want to play a huge pot here)

River (210): 5

I check, villain bets 100 without thinking much about it.

Hero...???

I think this is a fold; it seems like there should be few bluffs in his range here. He could easily have 2pair+, though maybe he would raise turn sometimes. I don't see many people turn an 8 into a bluff here.

Thoughts?

I snap call. He doesn't necessarily have to be bluffing an 8. It could also be JJ-99 putting you on AK. You're good here enough getting 3-1 imo.

Why would he be betting 99-JJ? He can't expect me to hero call with AK. It's not likely he believes I have something like A8, he's not clueless and probably realizes I'm not raising that UTG. If he's not bluffing, I think I just must be behind. Maybe I'm wrong and just wtf llsnl, but 99-JJ just doesn't make much sense to me. Sure he could be thinking "I have an overpair I bet.", but not so often I think.

Yeah, but your line looks like you probably missed, just call. Good for meta too.

Yeah I think your small turn bet invites a lot of bluffs on river.

Does anyone consider betting 50 on river to get value from a pair and lower value villain will get when he has 2pr?

Sent from my SM-T580 using Tapatalk

Snap call. Why can't you have 99/TT? If I was villain I'd certainly bet QQ and likely JJ as well. Villain can also have hands like T9s that floated with 3 straight/3 flush and picked up the OESD on the turn (which is consistent with his quick pace of calling).

I would b/f turn around $55-60 and river for ~40% PSB.

I'm folding due to sizing. I think he sizes larger if he wants to bluff. He doesn't have to have the straight, I'd expect to see 54 and stuff like that as well.

Bigger on the turn, I'd bet around 70.

Sure JJ/QQ/99/TT are possible, but what about...

33,44,88,55,77 78, 57, 67, 56, 45, 34, 35, 68, 64, 63

A ton of hands now 2pair+ that are absolutley in his range. There will be some junk in there as well, but I don't quite see how it's a snap call without a better read than I've given you.

I typically limp with these bigger stacks at my table in an attempt to setup a better SPR situation for myself / have more knowledge if my raise is actually going to thin the field / not setup tricky SPR spots for myself OOP. Our raise managed to thin the field to 3ways, although we end up OOP in an SPR ~7.5 spot (which is a meh result, imo).

The problem (imo) of this SPR is that if we bet twice we could easily consider ourselves committed by the river, or have put in a decent chunk of our stack before being able to release *if* he's kind enough to raise us and let us know we're beat. So often we'd like to pot control here, although being OOP this will make it more difficult, as he can simply make us play for stacks with 3 reasonable bets when checked to.

I sometimes underrep my hand / attempt pot control by simply checking this flop and seeing what happens. If betting (which I don't hate) I'd probably bet even smaller on this board. We're not looking to build a big pot OOP and this board is fairly bone dry. Unless someone is playing back at betsizing, I'd probably just go $20 (if betting).

One of the only draws got there on the turn. Again, if betting to fold (which I don't hate) then I'm fine with the smallish bet. We're not looking to build a huge pot, the board isn't drawy, and we're looking to get value from worse hands (when this guy has folded to a double barrel before). The problem we start running into at this point is our hand starts looking exactly like what it is, and this ain't a good thing OOP.

I think I would also sigh check/fold the river. It's possible we were beat on the flop and this guy was rope-a-doping. There's not really too many busted draws this guy could have that he's now bluffing, even A2 got there (for instance, if there was a busted flush draw we'd probably have to lean to a call). Most opponents at this level snap check back TP type hands here (even stuff like JJ), at least in my experience.

Overall I think the hand is played fine, although there are options at each point.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Turn bet is too small. Why did you check the river? If you checked to c/f because you thought you were behind, fine. I think a b/f on that river is better or a c/c if he's bluffed before.

As played, I probably call unless I have a better read on him. For hands that beat us, 56 and 78 do make some sense, but that's about it. Many of us would raise those, but a lot of players slow play hoping the OR will keep firing.

As played, I'm calling it off, not exactly ecstatic about it but we're highly underrepped IMO.

Considering your stack going to river is 312, calling off almost a third of your stack hoping, doesn't seem very profitable and in my eyes is quite silly considering there are so many hands that beat you. The description you gave and his pre flop range of hands that he has, that board smacks him and I think you can lay this down on the river knowing you were beat. KK in this spot is really only a bluff catcher as any 6 completes the straight. Any of his suited connectors and gapers are 2 pair on this board, sets are there too. I think this is a pretty easy lay down. We aren’t getting 3:1 either, we are being laid 2.1:1 so just not profitable at all to call. Keep the decent size 100bb stack and fold.

He is getting 3-1 to call. $100 to win $310.

By the time you get to the river, the only better hands you really have in your range are AA, 88, and possibly 76s or 65s - although that's really player dependent if you're raising them preflop UTG. It's possible that you're not.

Snap call is right. This hand is too high up in your range to fold. If you're folding KK here, what are you calling with? Also, if you're folding KK here, you're folding wayyyy too much and are very easily exploitable.

Plugging your exact action into the software yields a situation of 79% calls and 21% folds, which does truly show this is a tough spot. Most times software spits out a clear choice one better than the other.
I myself probably lean toward the fold since this is lsnl and you are left with a decent amount of chips to wait if you want.

I'm definitely the contrarian of this thread in thinking that the biggest error was probably OTT (although honestly fine as played zero -EV plays made). Turns out the software agreed (made me happy lol), Software felt AP hero should make that $40 bet 8% of the time ad check 92% of the time so still not an error. Re-think the situation, and i feel that a check on the turn instead of a bet likely gets checked behind. You are now left with more options and maneuverability OTR and you aren't playing as large of a pot, which you even said halfway through you did not totally want to do after the flop. The bet OTT basically turns your hand face up with QQ+ to villain. All sorts of TPTK, TPWK, gutshots, etc can call the turn hoping to either improve to two pair, or wait for a horror card for hero to fall which it did, wait for hero to check and bomb the river. I feel that too many cards on the river scare the **** out of hero and make villain's bluffs look good all day.

If played this way hero can play river, bet-raise-call, check-call... Just makes more sense to win a solid pot than be put in a ****ty spot more often than not against villain with a range that can hit this type of board.

If you do bet the turn, I would say a PSB would be best.

lol wut software? You can't beat a computer?!?

Sent from my SM-T580 using Tapatalk

PokerSnowie. n00b. lol jk just wanted a cheap shot.

But seriously maybe because snowie gets me thinking different, I felt the part that handcuffed hero was turn bet. Snowie agreed.

And yes Snowie can be beaten and has by top level pros. It wasn't until this past February I believe that AI became advanced enough to beat top level humans in NLHE. Each year the past 3 years they have run a challenge to test the highest level bot and past two years statistical tie was achieved by the bot, but humans won by 9bb/100, which everyone knows is CRUSHING especially in online. This year Libratus is the highest AI bot made. Absolutely, crushed humans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLXPGwJNLHk

How are we highly underrepped? We raised preflop in EP and bet the first two streets.

Gmightaswelllayourhandfaceuponthetable,imoG

And we should be worried about that because everyone is exploiting us at this level? Like this guy knew what we had (it's admittedly pretty obvious) but called to the river anyways to bluff us off it?

I will say, given the price the river is difficult; I'm not hating on a call at all. I mean, I would probably lean towards a fold here but it really is opponent dependent and how clueless / aggro they are.

GeasilyexploitablenoobG

b/f river

"Highly" is probably an exaggeration but I see few players in my game who bet $40 OTT with KK here, most would go $80+.