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KK has a flop quandry KK has a flop quandry

09-17-2018 , 01:50 PM
Game is 1/2 NL, $300 max. Hero has been playing for maybe 1 hour with not too much going on. There are 3 villains in the hand described below:

V1: Cutoff, YWG, seems loose passive. Not really all that relevant to the hand. Stack is $71.
V2: Button: MASG (spanish). Been pretty active, but mostly passive. Has been running well and has built up a decent stack by making some nuttish hands. $550.
V3: SB, YWG. Crazy active, on 4th $300 buyin and has been willing to get it in on draws, stone bluffs, and medium strength hands, especially when Heads up. $325

Hero has $340 and is in the BB with Black Kings.

OTTH:

Folded to V1 who limps, V2 limps button, V3 completes in SB. Hero raises to $20 and all three players call.

Pot ($75 after max rake)

Q34. V3 checks from the SB. Hero leads for $60, V1 calls all-in for $51, V2 also flats OTB. V3 now shoves for $305 total.

Pot is $551 to call $245 with V2 yet to act to the shove. So if Button folds, Hero will be calling $245 to win $796 or getting around 3.25-1 (31% roughly).

No read on Button as to whether he is going to muck or call. I range SB at anything from Qx, 65, sets of 3's and 4's (I discount QQ), or maybe 43 for two pair.

Hero wants to know what you do here?
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-17-2018 , 02:07 PM
I probably just fold, it's so easy to have one out here. I think it's just super unlikely you win here at showdown often enough and it's too optimistic to hope they all have draws or worse pair.

Edit: This looks like a situation where everyone is getting all in. I did this quick estimation of their ranges and it doesn't look good for us.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Q43
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KcKs14.92% 89,4980
AQ, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, Qx3x, Qx4x, 5x6x28.37% 163,96712,699
AQ, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, Qx3x, Qx4x, 5x6x28.38% 163,97612,703
AQ, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, Qx3x, Qx4x, 5x6x28.33% 163,63712,892

Last edited by mdelore; 09-17-2018 at 02:19 PM. Reason: propokertools table
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-17-2018 , 02:10 PM
I call. Obviously you need to fade an A, a Q, a 2, a 5 or any heart ❤️ but you’re probably ahead and getting right odds. V2 still to act can make me nervous here but not enough to muck K’s.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-17-2018 , 02:23 PM
I’m predicting this is QhXx versus Ah4x and K’s hold up.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-17-2018 , 02:27 PM
Don't think I can fold given your assessment of SB. He can have strong hands, sure, but I imagine he's jamming a crap ton of draws, lots of Qx, perhaps even middle pair hands. Loose passive short stack can have much of the same, as well.

I'm not overly worried about BTN, he's likely to raise a lot of the hands that beat us the first time around.

Let's go for it.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-17-2018 , 04:15 PM
I think this is very close and comes down to live reads for me. I’m comfortable calling without V2 behind but if V2 is solid and has adjusted his play for V3 behind him then his range may appear passive as a result and he may indeed be uncapped. I disagree with mdelores ranges above as I think only V3 can show up with Q3, Q4, 34, 56, etc... when Hero opens for $20 with potential spaz behind I don’t think V1 and 2 are calling this wide. So I think we have more equity than that. 4 ways we would need about 24% though and I’m not sure we are that high. The fact that V2 flats the $60 OTF can’t be ignored. If I’ve never seen V2 trap I am more likely to call it off. I don’t hate a fold though. Playing for stacks heads up with the overpair is more my speed than out of position 4 ways (3 and a quarter ways, whatever). Sorry, I’m not much help on this one. I like to avoid these high variance spots but in the heat of the moment I probably call more than fold.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-17-2018 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
I think this is very close and comes down to live reads for me. I’m comfortable calling without V2 behind but if V2 is solid and has adjusted his play for V3 behind him then his range may appear passive as a result and he may indeed be uncapped. I disagree with mdelores ranges above as I think only V3 can show up with Q3, Q4, 34, 56, etc... when Hero opens for $20 with potential spaz behind I don’t think V1 and 2 are calling this wide. So I think we have more equity than that. 4 ways we would need about 24% though and I’m not sure we are that high. The fact that V2 flats the $60 OTF can’t be ignored. If I’ve never seen V2 trap I am more likely to call it off. I don’t hate a fold though. Playing for stacks heads up with the overpair is more my speed than out of position 4 ways (3 and a quarter ways, whatever). Sorry, I’m not much help on this one. I like to avoid these high variance spots but in the heat of the moment I probably call more than fold.
+1 … Most V at this stakes are not adjusting, so I'm not going to credit V2. Fold is fine with any live reads, but I'd likely call here given the hand configuration, and SB image.

We don't block FD/SD, and have outs to strange 2-pr hands.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-17-2018 , 08:42 PM
Snap shove, not close
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-17-2018 , 11:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
Snap shove, not close
This
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 09:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
Snap shove, not close


+2
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 09:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore
I probably just fold, it's so easy to have one out here. I think it's just super unlikely you win here at showdown often enough and it's too optimistic to hope they all have draws or worse pair.

Edit: This looks like a situation where everyone is getting all in. I did this quick estimation of their ranges and it doesn't look good for us.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Q43
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KcKs14.92% 89,4980
AQ, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, Qx3x, Qx4x, 5x6x28.37% 163,96712,699
AQ, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, Qx3x, Qx4x, 5x6x28.38% 163,97612,703
AQ, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, Qx3x, Qx4x, 5x6x28.33% 163,63712,892


Why are u assigning a tight range to a loose player?
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 09:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thamel18
Don't think I can fold given your assessment of SB. He can have strong hands, sure, but I imagine he's jamming a crap ton of draws, lots of Qx, perhaps even middle pair hands. Loose passive short stack can have much of the same, as well.

I'm not overly worried about BTN, he's likely to raise a lot of the hands that beat us the first time around.Let's go for it.
Button described as passive and is the biggest worry here
better spots to GII with much better odds

if you don't mind the low % shot at doubling up than go for it

but to me its an easy
fold
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 09:18 AM
Wow, OK. Was not expecting so many folks to argue for an easy call of the shove here.

As for reads on V2, this was the first session I had played with him so I can't say that I had a really strong read. But, I certainly didn't expect him to be super strong here when he just flats V1's under-ship as at that point the pot was already $186 vs remaining effective stacks of say $240 more. If I am in his spot with 2P+, I am likely shipping (or at least raising there), so his flat to me meant more draws, Top pair type hands.

Anyway, I thought about a bit and did ship over the top because the one player who potentially had a value hand IMO was V3. But given I had seen him be crazy with draws already, I thought his range was wide enough that I was getting the proper odds to go with it. V2 remarked "well I can't fold now" and also called behind for a final pot of $1041.

Turn T

River J (yuck)

V2 shows K6 and scoops, shorty didn't show and V3 CLAIMED he had 43 for 2P but that seems kind of dubious to me.

Anyway, thanks for the thoughts. After the hand I was questioning whether my equity versus all 3 was good enough to call given all the draws out there and I thought maybe I should have folded. But at the time, I certainly didn't know that V2 would also call somewhat light (getting good odds, but doesn't have the nut draw), so I guess I can't play Monday QB there.

Shorn
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 09:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman
Button described as passive and is the biggest worry here
better spots to GII with much better odds

if you don't mind the low % shot at doubling up than go for it

but to me its an easy
fold
Interesting point. While true, I think it is still a leap to assume that because he called $60, he is calling the shove as well with his entire range. Turned out he was, but at the time I didn't really expect him to do so and I thought I was going to be vs V3 for the side and I wasn't worried at all about the shorty.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 10:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hyperknit
Why are u assigning a tight range to a loose player?
Y'all can run whatever equities you want, I don't think you'll get to 31%. Shoving any NFD, any suited 56 here isnt tight. The snap shove crowd I guess thinks we have a massive edge here?

I think we can give the shorty Q9-QK as well but it doesn't change too much, and it doesn't affect the sidepot.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Q43
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KcKs18.88% 113,3060
AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, Q9, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, 5x6x16.12% 92,6478,212
AQ, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, 5x6x32.49% 189,25311,439
AQ, Ah*h, KhQh, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, 3x4x, 33, 44, 5x6x32.51% 189,39611,458
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 11:01 AM
Seeing button call the shove we need even less equity, so we might break even on this call. Still funny how everyone is loving this spot and taking it to the bank.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdelore
Seeing button call the shove we need even less equity, so we might break even on this call. Still funny how everyone is loving this spot and taking it to the bank.
Yeah I was not at all fist pump calling here. Could be that I have been losing/playing poorly/running not so great since May 1st. But I was worried I was going to post this hand and everyone was going to be like "dude are you crazy?? SNAP fold lol!" so at least it wasn't that bad.

Just really not at all confident in my game/decisions right now.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
Snap shove, not close
agreed
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 12:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
Yeah I was not at all fist pump calling here. Could be that I have been losing/playing poorly/running not so great since May 1st. But I was worried I was going to post this hand and everyone was going to be like "dude are you crazy?? SNAP fold lol!" so at least it wasn't that bad.

Just really not at all confident in my game/decisions right now.
You described him as crazy active and on his 4th buy in , you should be confident in your play here if his range can be super wide. If it was a different player type then the dynamic changes drastically
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 12:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmo1120
You described him as crazy active and on his 4th buy in , you should be confident in your play here if his range can be super wide. If it was a different player type then the dynamic changes drastically
this is fine heads up against SB

WHY do you insist on forgetting about the all-in player and that button flatted

this makes a huge difference

does putting blinders on help you justify your bad play ?????
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 01:16 PM
In a typical 1/2 or 1/3, I'm snap folding this without the Kh.

With a Kh it's a grunch call.
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman
this is fine heads up against SB

WHY do you insist on forgetting about the all-in player and that button flatted

this makes a huge difference

does putting blinders on help you justify your bad play ?????
yea hes all in for less so you mainly have to worry about the SB here. the button shoving does make the SB's raising range stronger here but I still think KK is ahead of that range . *CO shoving

Last edited by tmo1120; 09-18-2018 at 02:33 PM. Reason: typo
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 02:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tmo1120
yea hes all in for less so you mainly have to worry about the SB here. the button shoving does make the SB's raising range stronger here but I still think KK is ahead of that range . *CO shoving
button flatted
SB shoved

button most likely drawing
if you call he'll come along

in heat of moment quick math your looking at losing 3 of 4 times

I'd rather GII when I'm going to win 3 of 4 times
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 03:14 PM
Grunch:

Withiut doing any in depth analysis its likely a sigh fold. If we had Kh maybe it's a call, but in a 4 way pot I expect us to be behind one of the players often if not 2 players since all ljmped/called pre.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
KK has a flop quandry Quote
09-18-2018 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman
this is fine heads up against SB

WHY do you insist on forgetting about the all-in player and that button flatted

this makes a huge difference

does putting blinders on help you justify your bad play ?????
The all-in player can literally have anything and he called for LESS than our bet so he has almost zero relevance. BTN hardly ever has better than one pair here.

Folding is a bad play. Extremely bad.
KK has a flop quandry Quote

      
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