Another tough (weird) spot. One after the other lately

UTG limps. I make it $30 UTG+1 with KcKs. Only the SB calls. We are $650 effective.

SB is a young (22?) kid with a heavy accent and broken English. Hes very hard to understand. Hes obviously not American. We've been at the table together for about an hour and a half and hes played about 3 hands. Every hand up til now and all night, if he falls below $500 he reaches into his backpack and tops off with a green chip. Even if its just one.

Ive played 1 hand hand with him. He raised $20. I called with JJ. Flop came AQx. He checked. I bet $25 and he folded. No C-bet from him.

Back to the hand.

Flop ($70) 853 rainbow. He leads $90. I call.
Turn ($260) 9. He shoves all in. WTF?

Super weird sizing and action - cool hand

How'd you know he had JJ in that other hand?

I had JJ in the the hand.

Ya that's really weird. All sets make sense. 67 makes sense for some players as do all over pairs. It's just hard to tell because we know so little about him.

What we do know:
He tops off.
He plays relatively tight.
He cold called a raise from the SB.

Without anything else it points toward a set. Until I know better I like a fold in big money spots with so many unknowns.

Yup fold sounds good.

I dont see a guy who is playing as tight as him calling a raise in or out of position with 76 (or 97)

doing a new exercise where I read the HH and make a quick judgement. Overpair? That's where I got him.

I guess I puke fold. This is tough, but you aren't that invested in the pot so far. Fold and wait till you know more about this player.

I went thru a phase where I was in spots like this and when I decided to call I was basically saying to myself "this player is making a big mistake here and I call". Then I figured out that fairly decent/break even players(or better) almost never make a donate-your-chips bet here like this and I was the one making the big mistake.

Sometimes we make a call here based on an almost unconscious wish that the villain is bad without any true knowledge that villain is bad and that gets expensive.

I think he's putting you on a big pair pre. At first I thought it was AK he had you on, but it appears he may have put you on a range as wide as JTs when the 9 came.

It also appears to me that he thinks he can stack you, if he plays 88,55,33, and flops a set and you have AA/KK. But then he decides to put you on a hand that works with this coordinated board & take it down now.

I think the fact that he keeps topping off & played a hand for $30 OOP, when he's been playing so tight all night, fits into my line of thinking. But I'm guessing. I don't know what he thinks [if he does at all] you have.

+1

Don't feel terrible if he shows a weirdly played TT-QQ though. Happens and all you can do is make a mental note he overplays his hands. Him being tight makes this even more valuable knowledge.

Sent from my HTC 10 using 2+2 Forums

Probably not folding. This is a weird way for him to play a set, I expect to see an overpair more often. We have just over 50% equity vs {AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 55, 33}, and I weight the non-set overpairs more than the sets with his line.

he has QQ here a lot.

He also has 88 here a lot too.

Call and find out.

This is def a weird one. So he is super tight, and keeps adding to his stack when he dips below. Looks like he is trying to get full value for when he traps someone. Could he have AA? It would be a good way to slow play them because of how tight he is. My read is either QQ, AA, or set. More likely QQ or AA.

He overbets the pot on the flop on a rainbow board with a set?

The place to start is some ranges and what our equity is. He's been playing about 8% of hands in the 1.5 hours you've seen him play. He might be card dead, but he's also playing out of the SB. If he's playing that few hands, he's folded the SB before. So I'd start him on a range of pocket pairs, AJs, AKo, KQs.

Because he c/f the other hand, we can also assume he isn't going to bet without an OP or better. We can eliminate straights, he isn't likely playing connectors. Against that range, we're a 60/40 favorite on the flop and splitting on the turn.

However, we don't know if he would necessarily bet out with just an OP. For our call to be good, we need 41% equity. He would have to not play JJ this way for this to be a fold. Note that I think AA is in his range. Guys like this like to trap with AA.

So it is close in my mind. In the end when it is this close, I go to Mike Caro's old advice of "if a villain wants you to do something, disappoint them." The bet sizing says, "please fold." So I'd call.

I think he legitimately believes you missed the flop. The donk bet definitely feels like an overpair. He may have JJ or QQ and wants you out on the turn before you peel an A/K? It's a strange bet but maybe he's playing with scared money. I don't think that him pulling chips out of his backpack to stay topped off necessarily means he isn't playing a game that he's not quite comfortable with his bankroll. I've seen players buy/stay at max buyin and still clearly appear as if they're playing with their lunch money.

With all that said, I'm still kind of leaning towards fold. A gross fold but with that SPR if you check and you're wrong you're going to feel sick afterwards. I agree that AA could be very real here. Hell, another KK is real too.

When you get a guy like this on your table I think you should open up your range and 2/3b a lot more off suit connecters and suited gappers when viable. I've gotten some huge stacks from guys like these with disguised hands.

If he is scared money, I think he would have checked the flop and/or turn with TT-KK. No way he would just donk shove. This feels like an inexperienced player who has a set and can't control himself from shoveling money in the pot. His overbet on the turn is almost like he turned a 2 outter w/99 and just spazzed without thinking since he got so excited.

I agree with others that this is polarized to either a set or a total spew desperation bluff from a frustrated player. Personally, I wouldn't pay this guy off given how tight he is. We will get his $ by running him over and outdrawing him when he checks too many hands. Calling his big bet is just handing over your money to the nits.

Can't believe a guy would play this patient throughout the session only to pick this kind of spot to bluff his stack. Just doesn't fit the prototype of a low stakes villain at all.

Well, if he is trying to play well and is a tight player, I don't think he smooth calls with QQ or AA very often. I also doubt he would overbet the pot with a flopped set when you are an absolute lock to bet your entire range if checked to. I have made a lot of money with flopped sets in this spot with a less than half pot lead, which can usually induce a raise from most players with AA or KK. That raise usually ties them to the pot and gets them committed, but an over bet lead? I doubt it. I fear exactly one hand hear and it's 99. Remember a lot of not very sophisticated players will flat with JJ and TT and try to get it in on any non A/K board. So yeah, I will stick with 99-jj with and outside possibility of QQ-AA. That's about it though.

LOL how can you not include all PP's in his range pre? All he did was call a raise.

Seems like the nutpeddler type. He has a set here most of the time. Depending on how active you've been/seemed he'll have AK occasionally.

Honestly I call and expect to get destroyed.

They are included but I would discount them based on the flop over bet, it is not a move seen a whole lot without a lot of history going on. I definitely fear 99 when he continues on the turn.

If he's unsophisticated enough to flat TT-JJ pre and then go nuts with an overpair he's just as likely to play a set that way.

Why did you bet the flop in the HH? There's not a single better hand that folds. Maybe you can get one street of value from lower PPs, but you also value-own yourself quite a bit. Your hand is not very vulnerable to being outdrawn as there is only one overcard that can come and you block broadway draws.

This hand makes no sense here. On the flop it feels like he has 99-JJ afraid of giving a free card maybe? Once you call the flop he has to put you on at least an overpair, though, and he's still ripping it.

I think you can fold this without worrying about being exploited. I would call it off with AA and sets and fold QQ-. KK is close enough that it doesn't likely matter much what you do. I'd probably call in game because I'm a calling station, but on paper it looks like a fold to me. Does he really have JJ or something expecting you to call with worse/fold better?

Explain this, please? I didnt bet the flop. He did. Even if I did, are you saying you only want me to bet the flop when I can make a better hand fold? What about getting value from a worse hand?