Background:
Pretty simple hand. New game started, about 15 minutes in.

Villain UTG+2 ($100): Young WM, no reads, has not played a hand yet, seems tight.
LJ ($100): Loose passive, bad reg, irrelevant
Hero HJ ($200): Young AM, tight.

Preflop:
UTG limps $2
UTG+1 limps $2
V raises to $12
LJ calls $12
Hero 3! $30 with KK
UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
V calls
LJ folds

Flop ($79): JT9
V bets $40
Hero action?

Thoughts:
1. Is there ever an argument for not raising all-in here?
2. What is V's range and how do we fare against it?
3. What would we do if we had AA/QQ/AK here instead?

Could be wrong so take with a grain of salt.

A. Raise bigger pre. $45 at least.
1) I'm sure there is but I'm not finding it.
2) this flop pretty much smacks his range, but I can't fold an over pair with these stacks in a 3b pot.
3) shove, shove, fold?

I would 3 bet pre to $50. As played, stack sizes suck really bad in this situation. It's hard to fold here even though the board is definitely not one we're looking for. I think you just gotta shove and hope he has JQs or QQ. We block straights and if we're behind we still have likely 4-9 outs.

3! sizing way too small. My default is 3x +1x for each caller +1-2x if we're OOP. I like $50 much better.

As played, just GII. SPR is 1 and he has 35bb behind OTF. Much better board for his range than yours, but there's still plenty of TP and P+draw hands he can have. Definitely expect to be behind sometimes, but I'm not folding an OP+gutter given the stacks.

Pre-sizing was decided based on a few things.

1. LJ likes calling pretty light, as long as the price is not too bad. Given his $80 stack size, I really wanted him in the hand too.
2. Designed to not let V fold hands like Ax (AQ, Aj, etc.), smaller pairs easily. I thought too much more would be too strong and unlikely to be called by worse.
3. Alternatively, I was hoping for a spazz pf (i.e. AK, JJ, etc.) if my 3! looked somewhat weak.
4. $30 was unlikely to be called by remaining players in the hand given the stack sizes and dynamics of the table up to that point so no concerns of somebody calling behind; set miners also priced out, etc.

Yes 3! size is too small. Bet about $50.... you give Villain correct odd to call. Surprised that LJ didn't call as well.

1. No, read about SPR. You're committed no matter what.
2. Overthinking about ranges.... just bet more PF and get AI on any flop if called. Even AP, you're not deep enough to worry about folding. Easy AI
3. AA and QQ play exactly the same as KK.

With AK you still need to raise more PF. The only question is do you raise to about $50, or go AI PF? Given stack sizes are eff 50bb (from your write-up) going AI PF with AK would be the best play. If you raise $50 and get called by someone starting with a $100 stack, you're pot committed on the flop no matter what. So why not just go AI right from the get go? There is already $31 in the pot PF.

Everyone got it. Bigger pre and not folding the flop even if villain flipped up KQdd by accident.

3-bet is way too small. Should've been $50.

Thoughts:
1. Is there ever an argument for not raising all-in here?
- In this exact spot? no. Heads up vs. a serial bluffer who will fold his air but keep barreling off if we let him? Sure, we can call there.
2. What is V's range and how do we fare against it?
-Hard to define. Obviously he has all the hands we are worried about, but plenty of 1-pair and draws. We have plenty of equity.
3. What would we do if we had AA/QQ/AK here instead? AA and QQ are both jams. AK I guess is a fold, but if we had put in the correct sized 3-bet preflop, we'd be going with it here too.

I mean if he flipped over kq before you shove this flop obviously it's a fold. You just can't pin his range to kq or two pair plus enough to make this fold.

I mean think about it if he can have kq here what else is in his range? Probably qq, qj, aj, AQ some spaz hand like 88 ("I put you on AK")

I was making a joke about never folding here. Stop trying so hard

Why if my goal here is to get better?

dont fold overpairs for half stacks

Results:

Hero moves all-in
V calls and shows AhAc

Turn 2c
River Kd

In retrospect, I can't really think of many hands that would donk lead flop like that that I actually beat.

I don't think V will donk-lead+commit more than half of his remaining chips with TPTK; I think Qx just ships it for fold equity.

AA played hand like a jackass

Uhhh yea I think you fare pretty decent vs his leading range on the flop, it's not a pretty spot, but I think you have enough equity to justify the shove

you played the hand fine besides the 3b sizing, just bc you ran into the top of his range doesn't mean that the rest of the range doesn't exist as well , hands like AJ/KJ/JQ ; also AA should be discounted here as well but I guess no one ever 4b's at 1/2? so it would seem pretty obvious that it can only be one hand,

I think his pf play is correct. If he 4!, I basically fold out anything worse than AA/KK; he outplayed me here for sure.

Everybody is saying my 3! sizing is wrong here (which I agree if stacks behind me were deeper), but if he didn't have AA/KK, would he really continue preflop to a larger 3!, given the shallow stack sizes? Given that it was just him ($100) and V2 ($80) left to act (I'm VERY surprised he folded pf), does it not make sense to make the 3! small and basically commit them on the flop? I think even middle pair would need to continue with the low flop SPR.

there are multiple limpers, a raise, and a call in front of you, this is why you want your sizing to be larger, you are looking to isolate with your raise

raising larger pre makes a smaller SPR post flop, it is easier to play in low SPR pots most of the time , especially when you are HU