Not my hand. It was texted to me and then discussed somewhat heavily with a 3rd party, so Im curious what thoughts are here. I will just share the text with a couple edits for reading ease.

1/2 NL live/casino. Max $300 Buy in.

KK on button. Mid position raise to 7, one caller, I make it 26, original raiser 4 bets to 60. I call. J72ss flop. He immediately pushes all in for 250 and barely has me covered. I fold. 3rd hand on table so i dont know player. He looked pretty confident though.

Pretty sure hero says neither K was a spade fwiw.

I have never been good here with KK.

And I am a geezer, been there too often.

Good fold IMO.

If we assume he does this with AK JJ+ i think we have to call. But if he only does this with AsKs AsQs JJ+ i think we have to fold.

With an SPR of 2 on the flop I am calling. If V had JJ or AA you would think he would just make a normal sized bet on the flop and then put you in on the turn. By shoving 2x pot on the flop he is making it easier for you to fold and why would he want you to fold if he had a hand that has you beat.

knowing 0 about V i dont think you can fold.

Against a range of AsKs, AsQs, and JJ+ we have 42.6% equity. Given pot odds we only need to be good 40% of the time so in this scenario it would be correct to call. Against your other range we have 54% equity.

Live read is everything here. But definitely calling unless I sense a strong overprotect tendency, which a small number of Villains have.

Can you elaborate on this?

Some villains are so afraid of being drawn out on, they will overbet huge on the flop with premiums and monsters to price out all possible draws. If I think the villain could be this type, then maybe I can find a fold, otherwise, this hand is a call for me.

Terrible fold.

And I folded KK pre-flop the other day so I know a folding spot if I see one.

I am never folding in this spot, this is especially true against an unknown V.


I feel pretty good about ruling JJ out, as very few people are going to four bet that hand pre-flop in your standard 1/2 game. We are miles ahead of QQ and as previously mentioned have appropriate equity against AK (I am going to assume Hero does not have Ks).

If V wakes up with AA, then that sucks cuz coolers going to cool.

Agree with this. Call and take a note.

V is likely cbetting his entire range as played. Given that SPR is ~2 and V is unknown, not sure we can read too much into shove vs. normal sized bet. If we're folding, we were pretty much setmining and that makes my brain hurt.

Snap call.

What I was saying is, if we cant continue with 250eff/2 SPR facing a jam here, what can we play? V is poorly playing if its a set of Js, or AA, but could be JJ, QQ, KK, AA, some rare bluffs with weak holdings/air , and probably even spazzing with TT sometimes. If hes 4 betting 77 and flopped a set, hes never jamming and whatever if something stupid like that happened. Same thing with JJ. It would just be a ridiculous cooler. AA is all thats really repped here and its pretty fishy paranoid hand protection bet if so. I just cant see flatting KK for 60 and then folding that flop. AQT flop I can find a fold, but other than that, I agree with earlier poster - folding KK says we were esentially set mining getting 5:1 with entire stack implied. The only way I can see folding would mayyyyybe be to a 6bet jam pre, but we chose to flat KK, which all but commits us.

Most likely a good fold... Pre is mostly JJ+, AK, weighted towards AA... Flop is going to be mostly QQ, AA, KK, AKs (with FD), weighted towards AKs then AA then KK... AA too strongly weighted here and not enough combos of KK/AKs to make it not a fold. But very exploitable obviously. First hand with somebody, usually best to just give them credit for what they're repping.

Disagree that a shove is same as normal sized bet in terms of ranges. I think it strongly pushes V's range to AKs (with FD) then AA then KK, but there's only 1 combo each of AKss and KK, six combos of AA. And pre is already weighted strongly towards AA. Some villains have a 4betting range that is 100% AA, and I'd be pretty disappointed in myself if I called here, ran into aces, and later saw this same V limp/calling with QQ and AK as some Vs do.

Call. Why wouldn't V think QQ is good? Gotta get you off that AK.

Scary just based on the fact that a huge percentage of 1-2 villains only 4-bet AA, but the initial raise to 7 might be weak enough where you can lean away from it.

Is it QQ / KK terrified of seeing an overcard on the turn, or is it AA / JJ praying that Hero can't get away from an overpair?

Yeah I didn't mean the shove vs. bet ranges are the same, just that flatting the 4b means we're assigning a range that's a lot wider than AA, and given that, I don't think a shove provides anywhere near enough information to narrow his range to a high enough proportion of AA (+JJ too I guess) to fold.

Even if villain is heavily weighted towards AA, it's still not correct to fold pre - our equity with KK is still going to be too good for the price we're getting, unless V is literally like 100% AA here and 0% everything else. Once villain shoves, now we're only getting 1.5 to 1. And need 40% equity. Not nearly as great a price.

Also, a J-high flop really isn't the best for us. Now we eliminate TT or JJ from hands we beat that might shove this flop, and QQ I think is somewhat more likely to ship on a T or 9 high flop (wanting to stack the next highest PP).... So we should prefer flops like 833 here.

Anybody that calls off here 100% of the time - fine, I'm sure that's the game theoretic correct thing to do... Just saying; I think we can hero fold in this spot to maximally exploit the player pool.

I call this
That's not AA, JJ, 77 or 22. probably QQ or AJs different suite. The villain is a donkey that want to protect against a draw like all the other weak players. I would call this because what's the difference? - I would have shoved pre anyway no matter what. I'm not calling 3!, I fold or shove. With KK I shove for sure if villain's 3! me. I don't know about you but me I'm calling 3! of $60 and worry to avoid an Ace on the flop and if villain bets big I may suspect him for a Set. I don't want to do that with myself because I cannot handle all that mambo-jumbo mental load on my brain.

I mean, why AA or any of the possible sets want to blow you out of the pot?
Only the weak players do that when they flop TP and worry about being drawn out by a flush. That's a mark of the weak donkey that turns his TP into 72o. His TP has value only at the showdown. If he shuts down the pot before the showdown he may as well do that with any two cards.

Super snap although this is AA alot more often than it should be.

Was the jack on the flop a spade? If not call, if yes probably still call.